2Hr Trend says Higher, 4Hr Trend Says Lower; Who will win?
So we ended yesterday like we did Wednesday, with full on selling pressure. With that we got a 2Hr downtrend mark.
I will likely continue to sit out of the market for the moment. With the 2hr beginning to show an uptrend, and the 4hr displaying it wants to continue the downtrend, I think the area in between is a clear No Go zone.
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
All the hype of the day will be on watching Unemployment and Payroll, but remember that yesterday's jobless claim while starting us off with a mini rally, did not provide the relief anyone was looking for on a Fed Pivot. The same Fed Pivot that the Fed Speakers have said is NOT coming. Not that anyone will care about Unemployment next week with CPI data coming.
However, if you're unaware, the belief that they are lying about the Pivot is based on the low credibility of the FOMC right now, coupled with the belief that if the US doesn't stop raising interest rates, it'll increase to the risk of a global financial crisis.
Likewise, if you're curious as to why a 4%ish rate hike is considered high when they used to be so much higher on average... it is because we used to have 6% on a $10,000 purchase, but that same item now costs $30,000, and 4% of 30k is a lot more than 6% of 10k. So therein lies the issue.
I actually think the biggest immediate threat to any potential rally isn't so much the market, but the geopolitical issues on the rise in various areas again. Will the US piss someone else off? Is Russia going to launch a tactical nuke into Ukraine to try and win the war? Will China move in on Taiwan? Is North Korea going to continue their shenanigans? Don't forget Europe is in a recession and has crisis level energy issues. Oh and OPEC+ is trimming production (that they weren't keeping up with anyways).
Certainly not trying to be a doomsayer, but the issue is any potential rally out of this bear market has several issues outside of the direct US economy that could immediately put it at risk.
My Sentiment is slightly changed;
Short Term - Bearish Neutral (I still think we could hit 3700)
Mid Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish Neutral
If you are trading in this, best wishes and remember your trading strategy and risk management plan.
I will likely continue to sit out of the market for the moment. With the 2hr beginning to show an uptrend, and the 4hr displaying it wants to continue the downtrend, I think the area in between is a clear No Go zone.
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
All the hype of the day will be on watching Unemployment and Payroll, but remember that yesterday's jobless claim while starting us off with a mini rally, did not provide the relief anyone was looking for on a Fed Pivot. The same Fed Pivot that the Fed Speakers have said is NOT coming. Not that anyone will care about Unemployment next week with CPI data coming.
However, if you're unaware, the belief that they are lying about the Pivot is based on the low credibility of the FOMC right now, coupled with the belief that if the US doesn't stop raising interest rates, it'll increase to the risk of a global financial crisis.
Likewise, if you're curious as to why a 4%ish rate hike is considered high when they used to be so much higher on average... it is because we used to have 6% on a $10,000 purchase, but that same item now costs $30,000, and 4% of 30k is a lot more than 6% of 10k. So therein lies the issue.
I actually think the biggest immediate threat to any potential rally isn't so much the market, but the geopolitical issues on the rise in various areas again. Will the US piss someone else off? Is Russia going to launch a tactical nuke into Ukraine to try and win the war? Will China move in on Taiwan? Is North Korea going to continue their shenanigans? Don't forget Europe is in a recession and has crisis level energy issues. Oh and OPEC+ is trimming production (that they weren't keeping up with anyways).
Certainly not trying to be a doomsayer, but the issue is any potential rally out of this bear market has several issues outside of the direct US economy that could immediately put it at risk.
My Sentiment is slightly changed;
Short Term - Bearish Neutral (I still think we could hit 3700)
Mid Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish Neutral
If you are trading in this, best wishes and remember your trading strategy and risk management plan.
Comment:
Looks like an initial 60 point immediate drop, although it has rallied off of some of that initial low back to this 3730 level that has seemed to be relevant. I still think we hit lower.
Comment:
The 3hr is pinging a downtrend. I like this. I still would really prefer to see a 4h if there will be a reversal, 6hr is still the prime signal if we can get that also, but I'd still be happy if we got a 4hr and then started a rally again that is less excessive than this last one.
Comment:
Aaaah there it is. The 4hr downtrend mark. So... we need to stay below 3715 until 9am to get it here. That's only 15 minutes away. This makes me happy. The market is normalizing.
Comment:
Well, there is 3700... So my other lower was 3650. I still think we could hit down to 3650 now. If we do, it'll completely normalize this market back in with a likely 6hr downtrend too. While I missed most trading this week, at least I made my quota all on Monday and can go into next week with things corrected finally.
Comment:
LoL... I seriously thought we were going to rally and lose that downtrend mark. We did not. So the 4hr downtrend has struck at 3714.
Do we get the 6hr? And... the 3hr is there but we have to remain here until 10am for it to stick.
Do we get the 6hr? And... the 3hr is there but we have to remain here until 10am for it to stick.
Comment:
Here we go... those wanting to go Long should come in a furry here if it is going to happen today. Otherwise, thinking we dip lower for the time being.
Comment:
Not much movement but hit that 50,000 volume profile I like to see in the first 5 minutes.
Comment:
Immediate 3 point drop after cracking that psychological level of 3700.
Comment:
There it is, a bit higher than expected. The 6hr Downtrend is hitting right here around 3680
Comment:
Made a few small trades up and down to make about $400. Nothing groundbreaking, mostly because I'm chickening out and cashing if I see the slightest pullback. I even had a long at 3678 but bailed at 3684 just before we went into the 90s. Would rather make some lunch money today and be able to jump when the signs become clearer.
Comment:
Jeez, teetering on these lows of 3671... seems to be no current interest in going lower.
Comment:
I hate to feel like I'm trying to catch the falling knife here, but I have gone Long at 3658
Comment:
My first attempt I got kicked for lunch money. I have gone back in long again at 3650
Comment:
Stopped out again... but back in again at 3640
Comment:
Soooo... just thought I'd comment on why I think we've had such a level of a drop. I'd say the initial aspect of that rally was a technical rally off of the oversold MFI for the Daily to a degree. The second portion of that rally really confused me, but I am guessing that it was based on the JOLTs report. The problem as I said on Tuesday with the JOLTs, is that it is from August... so it is a lagging indicator. I think the hope however was that the unemployment info would resonate job cuts... but if we watched micro data in September, we'd know that was unlikely, and that it was likely that unemployment was to fall. When it happened, I don't know that this unemployment data is justifying a plummet, but it dashed the hope that had been priced in on everyone trying to rally ahead on job data.
So, I don't believe that we make new lows based on the current info that can be priced into the market. I do think if we head lower, it'll be based on the inflation data going into next week. Also, realize that earnings season is coming, and thus far, earnings seasons have been prepriced in with low expectations, then companies are able to beat those really low expectations (I call it the Walmart Effect, since Walmart did it first this year as far as I know).
See if that same trend goes into this earnings season.
So, I don't believe that we make new lows based on the current info that can be priced into the market. I do think if we head lower, it'll be based on the inflation data going into next week. Also, realize that earnings season is coming, and thus far, earnings seasons have been prepriced in with low expectations, then companies are able to beat those really low expectations (I call it the Walmart Effect, since Walmart did it first this year as far as I know).
See if that same trend goes into this earnings season.
Comment:
Eh, cashed out at 3650. I think I'll regret it, but I don't know I want to hold over the weekend. I made my goal for the day and for the week, live to trade another day in this insane market :)
Average Hourly Earnings remains unchanged.
Initial reaction should be a decline. We will see how it works out in the long run. This may be that 3700 or lower move that I've been waiting for.