SemperTrader

Trends continue maxing out to the downside

Long
SemperTrader Updated   
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Short video today. Basically I attempted several times to go Long in the market, and was profit stopped out every time for about $100.

I went Long yet again this morning at 3935, for the same reasons I went Long yesterday, we are basically maxed out to the downside and in violation of several trends that will demand we fix ourselves (the 3hr/4hr/6hr/12hr).

The Long Position;
The one I'm in. I think we are headed back up to correct some of the trends we've left behind. I suspect around 4050ish, but we will see how things look when we get there.

The Short Position;
We could continue to swoop down little by little to hit my target of 3913, so each rally could fail for the moment, causing several small 10-20 point short positions while the 30m attempts to run with the market like it did yesterday. I will not be going short, but this is the scenario where I see that happening.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3964 Downtrend (3/01/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/28/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

Economic Data;
Jobless Claims and Labor cost will both be watched closely today.

Earnings;
Broadcom and Costco are the big movers of the day. I did mention in the video that the late plummet yesterday fell on Elon, being Elon, and providing some weird Elon guidance about Tesla that didn't resonate so well. Not an Earning but important none the less.

My sentiment is much like yesterday;
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral

Safe trading and remember that risk management plan!
Comment:
Yikes... I was stopped out yet again.
Jobless Claims went down ever so slightly
Unit Labor cost increased substantially.
Keep in mind though, this was for Q4 of last year, so it is a delayed report.
The market so far has not appreciated this news.
Comment:
Just an update, we hit a 30m uptrend at 3950 at the close of the 10:30am EST bar. Interestingly enough, this uptrend was directly in line with the trend line between the two downtrends I already had drawn.

I went Long again at 3945, and have been sitting on it since as we've managed to stay above it for the most part. Looking to see a green day, if even just for 5-10 points overall. I'm guessing it will make a move late in the session in one direction (up 10ish points) or the other (down towards 3930 and session lows).

Lots of indecision in the market this week so far.
Comment:
1hr Uptrend has now struck. It is a lower high, but thus far we've pushed past it.
Comment:
I decided to cash out here at 3988 for just over $2000. Not that I don't think we could have more upward movement, I just don't feel like carrying over a trade into the close.
Comment:
Rally occurred, the 2hr is currently signaling an uptrend, but must maintain up around here for another hour.

A potential for a 30m downtrend. If that occurs I'll go long around the downtrend and likely carry that position for a couple days, depending on how things work out. Certainly a bullish candle to end the day also.

Feels good intrinsically, and financially, to be correct! Hah
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