Is the FOMO rally over? Pressures pushing the market lower
So I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there).
In terms of trends, we got a lower low on the 30m/1hr/2hr, and then we've started hitting the resistance of a higher low on the 3hr/4hr/6hr. Thus far it appears that the higher low of the 6hr could cause a momentary rally. I'm looking to see if it sticks and stays higher and then if it does I will cash out and wait and watch to see if we get an uptrend that is a lower high that we can use to swing down past it.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4143 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4134 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I see us easily heading lower if we don't get up past the 4084 level of the Daily uptrend, at least to that 3900 level I have been calling for.
Economic Data;
We have some consumer confidence data today. I don't see it driving the market, but might at least pull us back to 0 if it is decent or confirm the lower movements if it is bad.
Earnings;
Not much today, like most Fridays.
My sentiment for today is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
In terms of trends, we got a lower low on the 30m/1hr/2hr, and then we've started hitting the resistance of a higher low on the 3hr/4hr/6hr. Thus far it appears that the higher low of the 6hr could cause a momentary rally. I'm looking to see if it sticks and stays higher and then if it does I will cash out and wait and watch to see if we get an uptrend that is a lower high that we can use to swing down past it.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4143 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4134 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I see us easily heading lower if we don't get up past the 4084 level of the Daily uptrend, at least to that 3900 level I have been calling for.
Economic Data;
We have some consumer confidence data today. I don't see it driving the market, but might at least pull us back to 0 if it is decent or confirm the lower movements if it is bad.
Earnings;
Not much today, like most Fridays.
My sentiment for today is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Comment:
Not quite the price action I was expecting, but not surprised. We just got a 1hr uptrend to end the day, a lower high. Relatively flat on the day. Still holding for over the weekend. I probably should have just cashed out at 4080 but I already made my goal for the week and then some, so I feel comfortable just holding this. CPI is next week, with some expectation it won't continue downward for a report here. I'll look more into that next week though. Have a great weekend!