Trends going into 10/17/2022; Earnings, Data, and More
If you worked alongside me on Friday I had said we would fall down to around 3600 and get a small bounce. Based on this, I entered a trade after seeing we didn't push lower at the open and was able to capitalize overnight for about $2000. Can't complain about making money in your sleep, right?
If you just want the trends, they are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3635 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Lower High
1Hr - 3640 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3604 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Lower Low
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
While it has gone about 10 points higher than I cashed out at, that was more to ensure I secured profit than me believing we wouldn't go higher. With where we are currently, I'd expect thing to hit an uptrend on the 1hr, as the lower high of the downtrends you can see was a major upward trending line (Grey). An Uptrend on the 1hr here over the next couple hours would give us an almost flat uptrending line, with it likely at this point being a slightly higher high.
Major levels I am watching is when it hits that 4hr lower high uptrend line (Green), which sits around 3662 at the moment. If we begin to fall lower, I'd likely be looking to see if we bounce off of the lower low downtrending 2hr line (Blue) which currently sits around 3580ish. If we hit the 4hr line, than the 30m lower high uptrend would appear to be oversold (Purple), and I'd expect us to come down and snag a downtrend on the 30m and see if that gives us a higher low or a lower low.
As I point out in the video, we are currently operating well inside the very healthy trend channel of the 12hr lower high and lower low trend lines (Orange).
Past Trends...
Earnings;
Bank of America and Charles Schwab are the big ones today, both might be out by now, I'll look after posting this.
Economic Data;
There is some minor manufacturing data, but it will likely have little significance unless it surprises well outside expectations.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish Neutral
Long Term - Neutral Bearish
I do have some concerns that I've been running almost too hot lately, and have been attempting to not get overconfident or complacent (hence why I sat out Friday in spite of the market doing exactly what I expected). Having already made a couple grand today, I feel I should really make sure I'm trading correctly and don't begin jumping into trades based on "feeling good" about my trades.
Part of my trading psychology. Don't forget to keep yours in focus, and remember your risk management plan. Safe trading.
If you just want the trends, they are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3635 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Lower High
1Hr - 3640 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3604 Downtrend (10/14/2022) Lower Low
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
While it has gone about 10 points higher than I cashed out at, that was more to ensure I secured profit than me believing we wouldn't go higher. With where we are currently, I'd expect thing to hit an uptrend on the 1hr, as the lower high of the downtrends you can see was a major upward trending line (Grey). An Uptrend on the 1hr here over the next couple hours would give us an almost flat uptrending line, with it likely at this point being a slightly higher high.
Major levels I am watching is when it hits that 4hr lower high uptrend line (Green), which sits around 3662 at the moment. If we begin to fall lower, I'd likely be looking to see if we bounce off of the lower low downtrending 2hr line (Blue) which currently sits around 3580ish. If we hit the 4hr line, than the 30m lower high uptrend would appear to be oversold (Purple), and I'd expect us to come down and snag a downtrend on the 30m and see if that gives us a higher low or a lower low.
As I point out in the video, we are currently operating well inside the very healthy trend channel of the 12hr lower high and lower low trend lines (Orange).
Past Trends...
Earnings;
Bank of America and Charles Schwab are the big ones today, both might be out by now, I'll look after posting this.
Economic Data;
There is some minor manufacturing data, but it will likely have little significance unless it surprises well outside expectations.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish Neutral
Long Term - Neutral Bearish
I do have some concerns that I've been running almost too hot lately, and have been attempting to not get overconfident or complacent (hence why I sat out Friday in spite of the market doing exactly what I expected). Having already made a couple grand today, I feel I should really make sure I'm trading correctly and don't begin jumping into trades based on "feeling good" about my trades.
Part of my trading psychology. Don't forget to keep yours in focus, and remember your risk management plan. Safe trading.
Comment:
The NY Manufacturing Data is -9.1% Expectation was -4%.
A bit of a surprise but thus far it doesn't seem like anyone cares.
A bit of a surprise but thus far it doesn't seem like anyone cares.
Comment:
Current 1hr bar is showing that uptrend mark. Has to hold until 10am through the open though.
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Went short at 3659. May not be a long term trend, but looking to snag maybe 10 points reversed into the open. Have a profit loss already of a whopping $50.
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Drats, got knocked out of it. Oh well... there's lunch
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Short again at 3662
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Took a small L at 3665. Was hoping we'd drop not spike at the open. I do expect a cooling back period coming up here.
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Trying again to short at 3675 now.. third times a charm?
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Ooph, stopped out of that one at 3685.... I'm surprised to see a spike up going into a 2% already on the day from overnight based only on a handful of earnings. Might take a brief break and wait for a better sign.
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Went short again at 3694. Last attempt for a bit
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Cashed out at 3681. Small gain, but it erases the earlier loss and gives me a bit more lunch money for the day.
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Schwab had record Earnings also, FYI. I still don't know that I think we stay near a 3% upside for the rest of the day, but nothing that I could see take us down at the moment into negative territory. We do need to correct some shorter timeframe trends though, as we are oversold of downtrends on the 5m, 15m, and 30m. So, with the 1hr getting a higher high, I'd be interested to see a small dip down to around 1.5% on the upside for the day and see if we drop the gains or regain back up to this near 3%
Comment:
For some reason lately I've been having issues with TV loading... but anyways, went short again at 3695. I'm shooting for a drop to about 3640 and then I'd like to see where things go as that would likely correct these shorter timeframe trends.
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Profit stopped out again at 3685 for $500...
I may call it a day. Frustrating indeed
I may call it a day. Frustrating indeed
Comment:
Short again at 3701
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Just cashed out at 3696 for a measly $250. Probably going to sit out for the rest of the session, maybe look at things this evening.
Comment:
If this current 2hr bar (15:00-17:00) ends above 3696 it looks it will trigger a 2hr Uptrend signal (higher high). If it fails by 17:00 than it is a no go.
Comment:
Definitely stopped gap above that 12hr line. I'd believe we won't come down... except we've oversold on every trend from 30m and below, and the trends above that had lower lows for the downtrend signals. Additionally, here it is again letting the overnight markets set the stage for the US open. I dunno, see what it does overnight. This reminds me of the issues with that June/July rally all over again.
I never trust a rally until I can see the bottom of it. I've been saying we get a rally, I just don't know if I like how this one is starting. I still think we swing back down towards 3640 once more, capture some of the downtrends in higher timeframes, and make the next move upward have higher highs so we can have higher lows. That to me would make a healthy looking rally. This has that "too fast too soon" issue I saw in the last two spikes upward.
I never trust a rally until I can see the bottom of it. I've been saying we get a rally, I just don't know if I like how this one is starting. I still think we swing back down towards 3640 once more, capture some of the downtrends in higher timeframes, and make the next move upward have higher highs so we can have higher lows. That to me would make a healthy looking rally. This has that "too fast too soon" issue I saw in the last two spikes upward.
Bank of America beat Earnings estimates and had an upside to revenue and income
Charles Schwab I haven't seen a result of their earnings yet.