The only trend that changed completely was the 30m, twice. It got flipped to an up position yesterday at the opening bell and got flipped back to a down position just before close. It has not closed below it, and with that level of whipsaw action, I wouldn't take us as on the downward train yet.
The 1-Hour Signal nearly uptrended but failed to close high enough to do so during the push upward, and the 4-Hour nearly signaled the downtrend afterwards but also failed to close.
I'd look for a 4 hour candle to close low finally today. Afterwards, I'd expect things to begin to progress downward in a more orderly fashion, as I don't know that I've ever seen the longer time trends flip flop this much ever in the couple years I've trend traded. I think however, that we have seen the last of returning to that 4-Hour Uptrend mark, at least until for a while.
However, the one thing that messes up all trends, is some sort of massive surge up or down based on a piece of data or news... and CPI data is released today. That comes out at 8:30 EST, and at least on the data I've seen, Headline Inflation is expected to increase, while Core Inflation is expected to decrease. Neither by all that much.
I'm currently sitting in a short position from yesterday, although I've had some concern that perhaps I should have closed out of it when the 4-Hour Downtrend failed to stick the landing.
Volume has been increasing the last two days, and yesterday was decent. If the CPI data is really going to direct the market, I'd expect a high-volume day (I consider anything above 2 million trades a high-volume day). Remember that the first initial surge in price to that data doesn't guarantee the direction we are headed.
Lastly, the 3-Hour trendline went overnight from a resistance to a support. My eyes will be on that 2-Hour Downtrend line. Yesterday's price action certainly gives some concern for short positions. While I thought we might revisit the 4-Hour Uptrend signal once more yesterday, I did not expect it to happen with such intensity.
I guess my last suggestion, is that if you haven't gotten in at the low point of yesterday to go long, or the high point of yesterday to go short, you may want to sit out until the CPI data is released and the market digests it. While most I've talked to think it is going to send the market downward, that could be our bias bearish sentiment showing. I don't know you'd be able to set a decent stop, because the sudden volatility is likely to have a push up and down and you will just get stopped out, and getting in on the wrong side of that move will likely cost you at LEAST $1000 if you held the trade the wrong way for even the initial 5 minutes.
However, as previously stated, this isn't official financial or investment advice. Maybe revisit your risk management plan going into to 8:30am EST.
We are long overdue for a major price action. Guess we see if it comes today.
Safe Trading!
The 1-Hour Signal nearly uptrended but failed to close high enough to do so during the push upward, and the 4-Hour nearly signaled the downtrend afterwards but also failed to close.
I'd look for a 4 hour candle to close low finally today. Afterwards, I'd expect things to begin to progress downward in a more orderly fashion, as I don't know that I've ever seen the longer time trends flip flop this much ever in the couple years I've trend traded. I think however, that we have seen the last of returning to that 4-Hour Uptrend mark, at least until for a while.
However, the one thing that messes up all trends, is some sort of massive surge up or down based on a piece of data or news... and CPI data is released today. That comes out at 8:30 EST, and at least on the data I've seen, Headline Inflation is expected to increase, while Core Inflation is expected to decrease. Neither by all that much.
I'm currently sitting in a short position from yesterday, although I've had some concern that perhaps I should have closed out of it when the 4-Hour Downtrend failed to stick the landing.
Volume has been increasing the last two days, and yesterday was decent. If the CPI data is really going to direct the market, I'd expect a high-volume day (I consider anything above 2 million trades a high-volume day). Remember that the first initial surge in price to that data doesn't guarantee the direction we are headed.
Lastly, the 3-Hour trendline went overnight from a resistance to a support. My eyes will be on that 2-Hour Downtrend line. Yesterday's price action certainly gives some concern for short positions. While I thought we might revisit the 4-Hour Uptrend signal once more yesterday, I did not expect it to happen with such intensity.
I guess my last suggestion, is that if you haven't gotten in at the low point of yesterday to go long, or the high point of yesterday to go short, you may want to sit out until the CPI data is released and the market digests it. While most I've talked to think it is going to send the market downward, that could be our bias bearish sentiment showing. I don't know you'd be able to set a decent stop, because the sudden volatility is likely to have a push up and down and you will just get stopped out, and getting in on the wrong side of that move will likely cost you at LEAST $1000 if you held the trade the wrong way for even the initial 5 minutes.
However, as previously stated, this isn't official financial or investment advice. Maybe revisit your risk management plan going into to 8:30am EST.
We are long overdue for a major price action. Guess we see if it comes today.
Safe Trading!
Comment:
CPI Data came in bad. Headline Inflation higher than predicted. Core Inflation Higher than predicted, although lower than last month.
I need to go sit and calm down. I'm agitated and I don't trade when I'm emotionally charged in any way.
I need to go sit and calm down. I'm agitated and I don't trade when I'm emotionally charged in any way.
Comment:
Not only did it stop me out... but it went above my profit stop, LOST me like $250, and then went where it was supposed to. Yeah, I definitely need a break for a little bit. Way too annoyed to be trading right now.
Trade active:
Being that the 6-Hour is beginning to signal right here around 3790. I'm going to use that as my entry point into the downward movement. Still bitter about this morning, but I suppose it is what it is.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Was stopped out at 3800. Looks like it'll be one of those days for me.
Trade active:
Went short again at the 3810 mark. This is the actual more appropriate 4-Hour Downtrend mark, as I'll have to deal with the other one being skewed by the massive downward movement.
Like, I can't even right now.