After maxing out trends, we've started to see the downward move
So I held my trade and walked away from the S&P for a bit to short the 6E (the Euro). It netted me about $3000 the last couple days, and that also gave me time to let my trade begin to form here. I closed out my 4140 short at just below 4110 yesterday, for a net profit of just over $1500.
Certainly not the move I wanted, but the move I ended up with. I still believe ultimately that we will head lower to that 3900 range I've mentioned, but we need to move down below a daily higher high trendline before we can get there.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4120 Downtrend (2/7/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4143 Downtrend (2/3/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/6/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I could see a brief bounce here, but nothing that will stick and I believe we are headed lower and will have another down day. I'm not ready yet to take another position at this point though.
Economic Data;
Fed Powell speaks today at 12:40 EST. There are a few other pieces of data but nothing I think might cause huge spikes in the market.
The Jobs data from last Friday should be a clear signal that the labor market is entirely too strong and no rate cuts are coming. I'm waiting for the market to understand this and stop living in la la land. This rally reminds me of last summers rally.
Earnings;
I scroll through the Earnings of the day. There are still a decent amount of companies reporting, but none with the weight of last week. I do think some of the companies that had bizarre rallies will have the poor earnings and forward guidance really settle in this week and lose much of the momentum they had and come back to reality this week. Earnings overall have really not been very good, even though we've rallied through them.
Overall my sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Felt good to get away from the S&P for a couple of days. My risk management plan strictly states when I get frustrated I need to walk away. I did this by going to another asset to trade.
You should remember your risk management plan as well. Safe trading!
Certainly not the move I wanted, but the move I ended up with. I still believe ultimately that we will head lower to that 3900 range I've mentioned, but we need to move down below a daily higher high trendline before we can get there.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4120 Downtrend (2/7/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4143 Downtrend (2/3/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/6/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
I could see a brief bounce here, but nothing that will stick and I believe we are headed lower and will have another down day. I'm not ready yet to take another position at this point though.
Economic Data;
Fed Powell speaks today at 12:40 EST. There are a few other pieces of data but nothing I think might cause huge spikes in the market.
The Jobs data from last Friday should be a clear signal that the labor market is entirely too strong and no rate cuts are coming. I'm waiting for the market to understand this and stop living in la la land. This rally reminds me of last summers rally.
Earnings;
I scroll through the Earnings of the day. There are still a decent amount of companies reporting, but none with the weight of last week. I do think some of the companies that had bizarre rallies will have the poor earnings and forward guidance really settle in this week and lose much of the momentum they had and come back to reality this week. Earnings overall have really not been very good, even though we've rallied through them.
Overall my sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Felt good to get away from the S&P for a couple of days. My risk management plan strictly states when I get frustrated I need to walk away. I did this by going to another asset to trade.
You should remember your risk management plan as well. Safe trading!