Trends still maxed to the downside; but CPI data incoming
So, after crushing a $5000+ day yesterday I will unlikely trade into the CPI data this morning. Ultimately the market environment could certainly take us lower, but the market analysis says we have to go higher. Likely the cause of a massive volume day yesterday at nearly 3.5 million. Although, we are around 25 points higher this morning so far, so we could head lower if we begin to see some trends pop up here and the upward movement fail.
I want to point out that while the trends indicate the 2hr is a higher low, that is only on the M contract, and if I merged the K Contract into the M Contract we had gotten a brief 2hr uptrend and then bottomed at a 2hr downtrend yesterday. I'll likely merge the two contracts together here at the end of this week, but the huge gap in price between the two contracts can really throw off the shorter timeframes.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
So again, you can see we are still maxed out to the downside.
The Long Position;
Any pump to the downside is likely to reverse to at least a neutral area. Being that I can sit out if I choose to because my profit is high for the week already, this will likely be my more immediate stance. Additionally, if it Economic Data comes in to skyrocket us and runaway to the upside, I might jump in for a small piece of that if I see a good entry point.
The Short Position;
If we begin to see the 30m/1hr uptrends, I'll be looking to see if the momentum is failing and jump into a short position there, likely trying to ride a 1hr uptrend to a 30m downtrend at least. I'm less likely to get involved in this though, and if I do I'm unlikely to hold this position for more than some daily gains.
Economic Data;
CPI Print is today. It will likely either cause some reversing action and a rally in the financials, or more fighting over the potential for a rally vs where we should go with economic data if things look bleak.
My sentiment going into today (from 3920ish)
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral
I'm going to mark this as a "Long" position, only because I'm likely to attempt to buy any dips with expectations of coming back up to the 3913ish level.
I want to point out that while the trends indicate the 2hr is a higher low, that is only on the M contract, and if I merged the K Contract into the M Contract we had gotten a brief 2hr uptrend and then bottomed at a 2hr downtrend yesterday. I'll likely merge the two contracts together here at the end of this week, but the huge gap in price between the two contracts can really throw off the shorter timeframes.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
So again, you can see we are still maxed out to the downside.
The Long Position;
Any pump to the downside is likely to reverse to at least a neutral area. Being that I can sit out if I choose to because my profit is high for the week already, this will likely be my more immediate stance. Additionally, if it Economic Data comes in to skyrocket us and runaway to the upside, I might jump in for a small piece of that if I see a good entry point.
The Short Position;
If we begin to see the 30m/1hr uptrends, I'll be looking to see if the momentum is failing and jump into a short position there, likely trying to ride a 1hr uptrend to a 30m downtrend at least. I'm less likely to get involved in this though, and if I do I'm unlikely to hold this position for more than some daily gains.
Economic Data;
CPI Print is today. It will likely either cause some reversing action and a rally in the financials, or more fighting over the potential for a rally vs where we should go with economic data if things look bleak.
My sentiment going into today (from 3920ish)
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral
I'm going to mark this as a "Long" position, only because I'm likely to attempt to buy any dips with expectations of coming back up to the 3913ish level.
Comment:
CPI data came in and MoM was .1% higher than expected, but honestly, it's fairly on with expectations. I'd THINK the market will take this lower, but there is going to be an argument that the FOMC can't hike higher because of the bank fiasco.
Comment:
30m Uptrend has struck at 3933.75. Not shorting just yet
Comment:
First attempt to short above the 30m uptrend... 3942. I think this is a stop hunt for better southbound positioning.
Comment:
Profit stopped for lunch money. Might try again here soon if I get another signal somehow, otherwise I'll just wait
Comment:
1hr Uptrend is here signaling. Has to hold another 20 minutes
Comment:
We have very nearly struck the Daily trendline here.
Comment:
I've gone short at 3950. Round 2
Comment:
Stopped again but I might jump right back in here
Comment:
I went short again at 3955. Don't usually go in again so quickly, but that is the daily trendline. Not sure we can make it above that right now
Comment:
I'm looking to hold this short down to about where the CPI data came in at (3922ish), and then reassess and potentially cash out.
Comment:
Cashed out. Wasn't happy about it going higher, but held it over and made a bit more than $1500. Not bad for the day after yesterday.