7/8/2022 Trends, Price Levels, and Important Market Data
No new trends developed overnight. Most foreign trade involvement was a very slow descent, but that isn't surprising with how overheated most timeframes were going into the end of yesterday (Just about everything was overbought on MFI). Some of them are still overheated depending on the indicator you are looking at (I don't put a lot of faith into indicators except it brings those algo traders to the yard).
We did come up and briefly touch that 6-Hour Uptrend Level of 3896 around 03:00 EST and then we again just touched it now at around 05:30 EST. We've already closed above it in the first candle past the formation of the uptrend signal, so there is no reason to think that we can't pass that 3896 level to go up and revisit 3927, the infamous 12-Hour Uptrend Signal that developed last week and turned into a reversal.
On the Upside;
There is a pull of VolumeProfile up at that level, so a cautious entry point if we show passing 3896 to go up is likely, but I'd be looking to take profit around 3927 and reassess any position. ** While writing this, I entered into this Uptrend trade**
On the Downside;
If we continue to bounce off this 3896 6-Hour Uptrend Signal, then I'd expect us to slide down and at least touch the barrage of Uptrend signals below. I would take profit at the 4-Hour Uptrend mark of around 3865ish.
On the Longterm;
I've explained before that a "healthy trend" usually develops by surpassing its trend signal strongly, then dropping down and revisiting that signal before propelling forward on its trend. I'd really watch this 4-Hour Trend Signal. It gave a signal at 3865, did a push past with momentum, and while a pullback to the 3865 level might seem like a bearish move, it could also be that trend gathering strength. If that happens, a healthy trend does not come back down past that push with momentum again. So, a drop to 3865, then a push past the 3896 level would really show an actual rally based on trends that will continue. Failing to do this, and I think this trend fizzles out around the 12-Hour Uptrend mark of 3927, and we see a reversal trend develop. Additionally, pushing upward too early helps create that double top scenario, whereas a revisit down to the 4-Hour Mark and then pushing higher, begins to fade that double top design.
Some economic Data to Watch;
At 08:30 EST is a lot of wage and unemployment/employment data. To show the Fed Policy is working, you would want to see some of that Wage data showing a peak or decline in wages, and Unemployment rising, but not too much. That doesn't mean the Market will act correctly to that data, but it would help alleviate fears that we are heading towards a hard landing recession.
I did exit my 3893 short at 3888 last night. Certainly a blessing. As I said above, while writing this, I trigged my entry at 3896 to go upward. I'll look to take profit at 3927 if it doesn't fizzle out, and reassess.
We did come up and briefly touch that 6-Hour Uptrend Level of 3896 around 03:00 EST and then we again just touched it now at around 05:30 EST. We've already closed above it in the first candle past the formation of the uptrend signal, so there is no reason to think that we can't pass that 3896 level to go up and revisit 3927, the infamous 12-Hour Uptrend Signal that developed last week and turned into a reversal.
On the Upside;
There is a pull of VolumeProfile up at that level, so a cautious entry point if we show passing 3896 to go up is likely, but I'd be looking to take profit around 3927 and reassess any position. ** While writing this, I entered into this Uptrend trade**
On the Downside;
If we continue to bounce off this 3896 6-Hour Uptrend Signal, then I'd expect us to slide down and at least touch the barrage of Uptrend signals below. I would take profit at the 4-Hour Uptrend mark of around 3865ish.
On the Longterm;
I've explained before that a "healthy trend" usually develops by surpassing its trend signal strongly, then dropping down and revisiting that signal before propelling forward on its trend. I'd really watch this 4-Hour Trend Signal. It gave a signal at 3865, did a push past with momentum, and while a pullback to the 3865 level might seem like a bearish move, it could also be that trend gathering strength. If that happens, a healthy trend does not come back down past that push with momentum again. So, a drop to 3865, then a push past the 3896 level would really show an actual rally based on trends that will continue. Failing to do this, and I think this trend fizzles out around the 12-Hour Uptrend mark of 3927, and we see a reversal trend develop. Additionally, pushing upward too early helps create that double top scenario, whereas a revisit down to the 4-Hour Mark and then pushing higher, begins to fade that double top design.
Some economic Data to Watch;
At 08:30 EST is a lot of wage and unemployment/employment data. To show the Fed Policy is working, you would want to see some of that Wage data showing a peak or decline in wages, and Unemployment rising, but not too much. That doesn't mean the Market will act correctly to that data, but it would help alleviate fears that we are heading towards a hard landing recession.
I did exit my 3893 short at 3888 last night. Certainly a blessing. As I said above, while writing this, I trigged my entry at 3896 to go upward. I'll look to take profit at 3927 if it doesn't fizzle out, and reassess.
Trade active:
As I stated above, my trade triggered while writing that. I've entered a Long at 3896
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed out via Profit Stop... Lunch Money
Trade active:
Entered, 3895.75 (stupid delay), Short
Trade active:
Entered Short, 3899
Comment:
Data Is in... Not Good (Though who knows what the Market will do long term with it)
Wages are slightly higher
Unemployment is the same
No cooling off in the employment market.
This will make expectations of CPI to be even higher if not the same.
75 bps is expected, 100 bps is possible.
Wages are slightly higher
Unemployment is the same
No cooling off in the employment market.
This will make expectations of CPI to be even higher if not the same.
75 bps is expected, 100 bps is possible.
Comment:
I'm guessing the algo's and spread traders are buying this dip, stopping it from going down more. Be interesting to see how things open at 09:30...
Is this the drop we've been waiting for?
Is this the drop we've been waiting for?
Comment:
30m Downtrend flickering... if it closes below 3880, it'll trigger a downtrend signal. 15 Minutes for that to happen.
Comment:
30m safe for now. Next 30 Minutes could really settle the direction, at least for the day. Push back above 3896, there is a rally. Drop down further, the 30m begins to indicate a downtrend.
Tech is tanking pretty hard, FYI. Nasdaq usually moves the LEAST in %, it is at 1%. Other sectors are the ones holding off a plummet now. Money out of one pocket, and into another.
Tech is tanking pretty hard, FYI. Nasdaq usually moves the LEAST in %, it is at 1%. Other sectors are the ones holding off a plummet now. Money out of one pocket, and into another.
Comment:
The backtrack from the drop is on the back of almost no volume. I'm guessing mostly single digit minute day traders doing some algo traders.
Longer timeframes are still sitting in algo overbought, lower timeframes showing oversold. 1 Hour is sort of the middle ground (MFI is heading to oversold).
Careful you don't look for what you want to see with indicators.
Longer timeframes are still sitting in algo overbought, lower timeframes showing oversold. 1 Hour is sort of the middle ground (MFI is heading to oversold).
Careful you don't look for what you want to see with indicators.
Comment:
Interesting talk on Bloomburg and how Forecasters don't want to adjust earnings for companies ahead of these Earnings reports coming because it will cause an avalanche... lower more realistic earnings reports will cause financial trouble and thus cause lower earnings, then requiring again lower earnings forecast.
Trade closed manually:
Closed my trade at 3885 for just over $500 (including the small loss). I would love to sit down and discuss with someone who is feeling that we are headed upwards at this point... Most major investors are sitting on cash.
I mean, I know the market rarely act rationale, but I just can't get a look at what others are thinking...
That being said, we will see what happens around this 3896 mark. Continue the trend trade? Maybe I just have to feel optimistic, ignore risk, and keep thinking the S&P can't go down by the end of the year.
I mean, I know the market rarely act rationale, but I just can't get a look at what others are thinking...
That being said, we will see what happens around this 3896 mark. Continue the trend trade? Maybe I just have to feel optimistic, ignore risk, and keep thinking the S&P can't go down by the end of the year.
Trade active:
Entered back into short at 3890... see if I finally get my target or lunch money
Comment:
30m Downtrend Signal, 3877. Gonna take a nap until 11am, Hour signal is the next to be tested.
Trade closed manually:
Trade closed at 3885.
Typical pattern continues, high volume downward movement, low volume rally. How long can it go on?
Typical pattern continues, high volume downward movement, low volume rally. How long can it go on?
Trade active:
One more try. Went short as we approached the 6 hour trend at 3900.
Trade closed manually:
Took profit of $500 at 3890. For the mess of a day, I'll take what Ive gotten and bug out. I'd expect an up and down day for a couple, CPI might be the match that finally lights the fireworks.
Comment:
The volume today started off with such promise, and just completely sputtered. Last 30 minute push in either direction? I'd say grab the popcorn, but lately things have been mostly anticlimactic.
Comment:
It is important to note, that while I only put so much faith into indicators, they do have their uses, and will trigger algo traders, and after today, the MFI is nearly overbought on the DAILY. Additionally, RSI continues to push higher, in spite of being lower, than our last push upward to 3913.
Comment:
Algo traders are going to be losing their mind here... Daily is heading into overbought, but weekly is nearly oversold. Which way do we go, which way do we go?!?!?!
Comment:
Finished our Double Top, Two Week Period with a Double Top Day. Abismal volume, Slightly higher than yesterday, but haven't been this low since Mid April. Within the day we ended a lower high, and a higher low.
Unfortunately in both my major trades, my target was missed and profits walked back some. Overall, snagged about 28 points or so in the ES minis. Probably could have tried for some more, but honestly, I think I was just burnt out from this week.
In spite of knowing the market can act horribly illogical, when it does so, I find it exhausting. Perhaps we will get more indication of a direction next week.
Overall, I think we dip into 3500, and then sit there, unless we hit a recession. If we officially hit a recession, I could see S&P value dropping below 3000. I think Earnings and CPI coming up will really indicate if we are headed that way or not.
Unfortunately in both my major trades, my target was missed and profits walked back some. Overall, snagged about 28 points or so in the ES minis. Probably could have tried for some more, but honestly, I think I was just burnt out from this week.
In spite of knowing the market can act horribly illogical, when it does so, I find it exhausting. Perhaps we will get more indication of a direction next week.
Overall, I think we dip into 3500, and then sit there, unless we hit a recession. If we officially hit a recession, I could see S&P value dropping below 3000. I think Earnings and CPI coming up will really indicate if we are headed that way or not.
Lower timeframe trends are all mixed... looks like lower low and higher high going into the news.