Recession has become the Bull Case? Trends into 3/21/2023
So I went short this morning at 4019 based on a MACD data plot on the ESM contracts. The buy zone on a data plot was 3948, and I feel like that really followed through into today, where my sell plot was to be at 4019. I had a short preset overnight and it struck early this morning.
As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that are all lower highs, so even if we are going to head higher, I see us hitting some resistance here on a regular basis. We just got a lower high 3hr Uptrend at 4008, and we are currently signaling a 4hr uptrend depending on where we close here by 9am EST.
Those trends going into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3959 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Key notations, the 4047 is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay, though it is only just now signaling on the ESM. The 6hr is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay as well (lower high) but has not signaled on the ESM contract specifically.
The Long Position;
I don't have a Long Position up here at above 4010. If we drop down to around 3950, I might potentially look at reverse my current position (Short) to see if we come back up. Depends on how it looks.
The Short Position;
I'm currently in a short position at 4019 to hold down to around 3950. If we falter and I bail on this before 3950, I'll likely keep shorting if we come up to this 4019 level over and over again.
Economic Data;
Some housing sales stuff today, but I don't see that having a major impact on the market. I still think this market is prime to potentially head lower with no positive Macroeconomic environment really out there right now.
My sentiment into today (from 4019)
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that are all lower highs, so even if we are going to head higher, I see us hitting some resistance here on a regular basis. We just got a lower high 3hr Uptrend at 4008, and we are currently signaling a 4hr uptrend depending on where we close here by 9am EST.
Those trends going into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3959 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Key notations, the 4047 is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay, though it is only just now signaling on the ESM. The 6hr is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay as well (lower high) but has not signaled on the ESM contract specifically.
The Long Position;
I don't have a Long Position up here at above 4010. If we drop down to around 3950, I might potentially look at reverse my current position (Short) to see if we come back up. Depends on how it looks.
The Short Position;
I'm currently in a short position at 4019 to hold down to around 3950. If we falter and I bail on this before 3950, I'll likely keep shorting if we come up to this 4019 level over and over again.
Economic Data;
Some housing sales stuff today, but I don't see that having a major impact on the market. I still think this market is prime to potentially head lower with no positive Macroeconomic environment really out there right now.
My sentiment into today (from 4019)
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Comment:
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Boring day for sure
Boring day for sure
Comment:
Just FYI, the DAilyFX sentiment has gone 51% short on the ES, and is up to 64% short on the 6E contract. I was stopped out overnight on my 6E short, but have gone short again today and this push up also.
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
Act:14.5% Cons:5.0% Prev:-0.7%