Trends and All Eyes on the CPI Data

Real quick, since recording this we had a huge jump up in the market. I'm guessing since things broke a key level or potentially a few of the Earnings came in. I'll update if I can figure out why that happened.

Anyways, if you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends

Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3607 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
1Hr - 3644 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

As I state in the video, not sure that trends will be running the show today as much as the CPI data will be. I also make a case for why in the long run outside of an initial reaction, I don't think this CPI data is as important as it is being made out to look.

Anyways, there is some Earnings I'll toss out as I check into them. All trends are down except that 2hr and the Micro Trends, which has a 5m downtrend but a 15m uptrend.

I would treat really cautious today, as I expect a major move worth a few thousand dollars in ES Minis, I just don't pretend to know which way that initial reaction will go off the data.

Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan

My Sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Neutral with a hint of bullish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Bearish

Comment:

So... that sudden surge was in the potential of a UK budget agreement. I've no idea why that sent US Stocks up... unless it was all UK Traders that suddenly bought in.

Comment:

Blackrock Beating Earnings forecasts but lost overall capital assets.

Comment:

Sooo... I was able to jump in and get about $3000 of this drop and jumped the hell back out. That was terrifying. Anyways, CPI is as follows;

Core CPI YoY, Last 6.3%, Expected 6.5%, Actual 6.6%
Core CPI MoM, Last .6%, Expected .5%, Actual .6%
Headline CPI YoY, Last 8.3%, Expected 8.1%, Actual 8.2%
Headline CPI MoM, Last .1%, Expected .2%, Actual .4%

That is pretty much what I said it would come in as.

Comment:

I've gone long at 3507. Looking to see if some of this panic selling gets a small rebound, at least briefly.

Comment:

Cashed it out at 3517. I'll take the extra $500. Good day today

Comment:

Looking at a Weekly Volume Profile, we are in a bit of a gap here at the 3500-3600 range. The bottom of the gap seems to be around 3460ish. The next gap above that is 4000, the next gap below is around 2600. I'm aiming for a hit into 3400 over the next couple days, then may go long to see if we can do a false rally into 4000 over the earnings season.

Comment:

My market keeps freezing... beware the market spoofing!

Comment:

Looks like at least in the short-term people are coming to realize that the slightly higher than expected CPI does not matter. Or retail traders are coming in and buying things that are hitting oversold. Too bad there wasn't a knife catching sign near the lows, would have loved another 2k or so for the day.

Being at $3500 for the day, I may sit out this trading day unless we make it into new lows. I'd love to go long at 3460-3480 ish.

Comment:

I have some Alerts set where I may look around to make a decision here or there, but otherwise, think I'm just gonna play some computer games for the day. I really thought with us getting so dang close to that 3499 range that we would dip into the 3400 territory, but it looks like I missed my chance to chase a rebound off the panic for the moment.

Comment:

And there we have it, I got the alert we just wiped out all the negative panic selling from this morning. I'd like to say I think we drop back down, but again, I just don't get the point of a plummet based on the data as I said. I think I missed the rebound, not sure I wanna short anything at this point today.

I do think it is possible that dip below 3550 was just a buy zone only. It would have been perfect if it had ran into an oversold zone on a daily or weekly, but the monthly uptrend we have that developed over years is right around 3540-3550. Might be best just to see how the market closes today.

Comment:

Well, the 2 hr Uptrend is signaling. Bout time...
Oddly though, while the 30m is also flagging, the 1hr is not

Comment:

I went short at 3632... not sure what's up with that level of a rally, but I'll chance it dips back down a bit

Comment:

Well that worked out poorly. Took a loss at 3645

Comment:

I'm gonna walk away today. This market has gone beserk

Comment:

I've shorted again at 3680. Numerous Uptrends coming in, nearly all are lower highs.