Trends beginning to signal some potential support; Earnings AMC

So I'm currently running two shorts, one on the ES! and one on the 6E. I attempted both a Long and Short yesterday, and both were profit stopped for $100, so after only making 200 yesterday, I waited until the close and then went short on the market into today, ready to bail if the S&P decides to shake off the movement down... again... and rally into the open and throughout the day.

The trends definitely are showing the potential for a brief support rally here, with the 2hr/3hr/4hr all violated and wanting to pull the market back up, and the 30m movements that were heading lower now appearing to be calling for price to come back up also. Currently I expect to see a 1hr downtrend, and that lost 6hr downtrend, but will then evaluate if I want to maintain my short position or briefly look for a retracement back up, even if I think ultimately we head down lower.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4155 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

The Long Position;
If we move lower to a 1hr and/or 6hr downtrend, I really may switch my position briefly if the movement appears to fizzle to a long position, at least to snag a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend movement. Otherwise, I'm not sure that today I expect us to push back above 4160 and make any new highs from the last couple of days.

The Short Position;
I'm in my short position already, but if I wasn't, I might look at an entry point around 4155. Additionally, if I decide to bail because of a mid day rally, that may be my re-entry point into a short position.

Economic Data;
CB Consumer Confidence comes in today. I am interested to see how this comes out along expectations. I may glance at home sales also just to see where the overall feelings of the "American Dream" are going.

Earnings;
Major players with earnings today. I went over several, but many of the biggest ones are AMC, so I expect a massive move after the US Markets close but before the Future contracts pause that will continue overnight.

Geopolitical;
It appears that Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again also, and the Sudanese events are likely to cause more instability in the world.

Overall, the ESM contract has done nothing but go upward since it was released, and I expect it to release some of the gains it has gathered before it resolves in the beginning of June.

My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - I'm just going to go with Neutral at the moment.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management.

Comment:

Really interesting day for sure. I'm considering cashing out, being that I'm up about $3000 for the day on the S&P. I'm almost up 1000 on the 6E contract.

We got the 6hr downtrend, but it was also a higher low. Next, the 12hr, will likely ALSO be a higher low. I'm concerned that we are going to max out to the downside soon, though I would think the Daily downtrend would strike somewhere around 4000 or so, not up here. Either way, I've struck my weekly goal and then some. It'll really depend if we can hit below 4100 and stay down there.

CB Consumer Confidence came in below expectations.
New Home purchases came well above expectations.
I think the Market is beginning to remove this idea we are going to cut rates by June...

Comment:

Google, Microsoft, and Visa all beat expectations. Browsing through forward guidance now