So I decided to wait until after the open to see how things turned out and it would be after we got our economic data for the day as well.
In terms of trends, we had lower high 30m uptrends and higher low 30m downtrends ending yesterday, however we managed to get both back to higher highs and higher lows on the 30m.
Additionally, we've struck twice off the 2-Hour Uptrend connecting lines and both times repelled directly off.
Any movement staying above 4127 I'd take as bullish. The 2-Hour line that seems to be supporting us from afar is at around 4100 today, so any movement below that I'd take as a bearish movement and the weakening of this rally again.
Interestingly enough though, as I mentioned yesterday, we'd started low and rallied high the last couple days, and I was curious if because we ended low yesterday if we would rally high initially and see the counter downtrend throughout the day today to counter the norm of the last two days. I would really like to see if this rally holds out throughout the day, or drops and continues this consolidation we've been seeing.
However, in terms of trends, only the lower high Daily and the lower high 12-Hour show us pulling back, all the main timeframes are in an uptrend. On a micro level, the 5m is both higher highs and higher lows, although the 15m is lower highs and lower lows. I think patience is key at the moment.
Economic Data;
So if you didn't hear, OPEC+ gave the smallest increase ever. That being said, most of the experts I've listened to on Oil have said they likely are near peak capacity, so they CAN'T increase production, and it isn't so much that they don't want to. I still think we begin to see a pullback from energy stocks over the next month.
On manufacturing data today, there was some weakening with the S&P Global that analyzes smaller and larger companies, but the ISM readings that looks at major companies came in significantly higher than expected. This shows no weakness in the economy and therefore likely little weakening in inflation.
However, the market lately has been in the mood of, "Bad News is good news, and Good News is good news" so I've no idea how the overall market will want to react to this.
In terms of Earnings, most of the companies that reported in BTO seemed to make or beat earnings, however, when I did a sample check on companies it seems most companies are lowering forecasts going forward.
There continues to be a disconnect between the Market sentiment and the Federal Reserve by most standards and analysis. I'm very curious in this rally can sustain itself until September when the next rate hike is to see if it will be the 50bps hike and still hold off any concerns of a recession.
Trends may be Bullish (From the 6-Hour Down), but my personal bias is still bearish (And Trends are Bearish from the 12-Hour Up). I trade on trends, but it is really difficult to keep having an eye for upward movement when I think we are setting ourselves up for failure.
In terms of trends, we had lower high 30m uptrends and higher low 30m downtrends ending yesterday, however we managed to get both back to higher highs and higher lows on the 30m.
Additionally, we've struck twice off the 2-Hour Uptrend connecting lines and both times repelled directly off.
Any movement staying above 4127 I'd take as bullish. The 2-Hour line that seems to be supporting us from afar is at around 4100 today, so any movement below that I'd take as a bearish movement and the weakening of this rally again.
Interestingly enough though, as I mentioned yesterday, we'd started low and rallied high the last couple days, and I was curious if because we ended low yesterday if we would rally high initially and see the counter downtrend throughout the day today to counter the norm of the last two days. I would really like to see if this rally holds out throughout the day, or drops and continues this consolidation we've been seeing.
However, in terms of trends, only the lower high Daily and the lower high 12-Hour show us pulling back, all the main timeframes are in an uptrend. On a micro level, the 5m is both higher highs and higher lows, although the 15m is lower highs and lower lows. I think patience is key at the moment.
Economic Data;
So if you didn't hear, OPEC+ gave the smallest increase ever. That being said, most of the experts I've listened to on Oil have said they likely are near peak capacity, so they CAN'T increase production, and it isn't so much that they don't want to. I still think we begin to see a pullback from energy stocks over the next month.
On manufacturing data today, there was some weakening with the S&P Global that analyzes smaller and larger companies, but the ISM readings that looks at major companies came in significantly higher than expected. This shows no weakness in the economy and therefore likely little weakening in inflation.
However, the market lately has been in the mood of, "Bad News is good news, and Good News is good news" so I've no idea how the overall market will want to react to this.
In terms of Earnings, most of the companies that reported in BTO seemed to make or beat earnings, however, when I did a sample check on companies it seems most companies are lowering forecasts going forward.
There continues to be a disconnect between the Market sentiment and the Federal Reserve by most standards and analysis. I'm very curious in this rally can sustain itself until September when the next rate hike is to see if it will be the 50bps hike and still hold off any concerns of a recession.
Trends may be Bullish (From the 6-Hour Down), but my personal bias is still bearish (And Trends are Bearish from the 12-Hour Up). I trade on trends, but it is really difficult to keep having an eye for upward movement when I think we are setting ourselves up for failure.