Patience is Encouraged in the center of range bound territory.
So I had done a short trade based on some in the moment indicators we'd have a bit of a bounce at 13:00 EST yesterday and going even lower after. It was a safe trade that netted just over $1000. Not bad, considering I didn't expect to go short at all.
Overall we are in the same basic picture today as yesterday. I'll be looking for a technical move up to a 30m or even 1hr uptrend to go short, and additionally if we have a soft move down I MIGHT go long again to come back up towards the 4000 level. I think my stance is a bit more bearish than bullish at the moment, but that changed yesterday and could change again. Either way, I don't know in the short term we have a major move one way or another unless Jobless Claims surprise the market.
The Trends are the same as yesterday;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
My least likely scenario, but if nothing seems to be needing to be priced in the market and we trickle down, I'd expect some buying pressure to bring us back up towards 4000. So I may go long at this point if we run down towards 3960 or so. Would need something to help me see a momentary bounce to buy in right now though.
The Short Position;
Being no surprising market data, I expect a brief pop still in the market, potentially towards the 4010 level or just below it along the mid time frame trend lines. I'd then look for signs that pop is fading and that it is just the next downward movement gaining strength. This avenue has a slightly stronger chance to me than the Long Position.
Market Data;
Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look for a surprise to one direction or the other. Additionally, I felt that perhaps the market didn't price in the NonFarm ADP report from yesterday. That movement (downward, I suspect) could come in priced late.
My sentiment (From 3984);
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Buliish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
I am going to list this as Short at the moment, as overall I think we head down from here, though I wouldn't just blindly short the market at the point and I want more clarity.
Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
Overall we are in the same basic picture today as yesterday. I'll be looking for a technical move up to a 30m or even 1hr uptrend to go short, and additionally if we have a soft move down I MIGHT go long again to come back up towards the 4000 level. I think my stance is a bit more bearish than bullish at the moment, but that changed yesterday and could change again. Either way, I don't know in the short term we have a major move one way or another unless Jobless Claims surprise the market.
The Trends are the same as yesterday;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
My least likely scenario, but if nothing seems to be needing to be priced in the market and we trickle down, I'd expect some buying pressure to bring us back up towards 4000. So I may go long at this point if we run down towards 3960 or so. Would need something to help me see a momentary bounce to buy in right now though.
The Short Position;
Being no surprising market data, I expect a brief pop still in the market, potentially towards the 4010 level or just below it along the mid time frame trend lines. I'd then look for signs that pop is fading and that it is just the next downward movement gaining strength. This avenue has a slightly stronger chance to me than the Long Position.
Market Data;
Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look for a surprise to one direction or the other. Additionally, I felt that perhaps the market didn't price in the NonFarm ADP report from yesterday. That movement (downward, I suspect) could come in priced late.
My sentiment (From 3984);
Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Buliish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
I am going to list this as Short at the moment, as overall I think we head down from here, though I wouldn't just blindly short the market at the point and I want more clarity.
Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
I realized I should clarify, I did a "short" LONG trade... yesterday. I didn't short the Contract, I bought a contract and went "Long" although I only planned to hold it for a "short" period of time, hahaha.
Comment:
Jobless claims had a decent surprise to the upside (higher). Likely will pull the market higher, but could initially fight the current downward sentiment as well... I'll be watching and waiting for the moment.
Comment:
And the 30m uptrend finally arrives
Comment:
The 1hr hit with the 30m.
30m is a lower high, 1hr is a higher at, both settling at 4001.75
I am tempting to short here, but I don't have confirmation yet that we will fade off this upward movement, so I will continue to wait.
30m is a lower high, 1hr is a higher at, both settling at 4001.75
I am tempting to short here, but I don't have confirmation yet that we will fade off this upward movement, so I will continue to wait.
Comment:
So, I went short at 4015, probably going to cash out soon here. Couldn't have been more spot on today. Hope everyone else did well.
Comment:
Exited at 3965 for a $2500 trade. Definitely been a good week
Comment:
The Daily downtrend signal is signaling right around 3925. I went Long at 3913, might not hold the first try back up based on so much momentum, but we shall see.