Trends bias to the downside, but direction still unclear
So here you are again, sitting at the mid 4150 level. Overall trends have shifted from an upside trend movement at the beginning of April (Yes... we got stuck up here since April) to a downside trend movement now in the Middle of May.
I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from there or try to get a 2hr uptrend. The 2hr uptrend may lower high or a higher high, I think it is too close to call. If we get a higher high, I'd expect some retracement down but once we get that movement down there is the potential it could try to push us higher. However, before we look to move higher, we'd have to shrug off the downtrend momentum that has already formed on the 30m/1hr/2hr/3hr timeframes.
We did settle briefly below the 6hr trendline that has acted as a major support, but now we are above that again also, and we have to now battle back down beneath it if we are going to stay down there, and then we still have the 12hr to battle past.
On a trend momentum level, we got a sell signal on a WEEKLY time frame with the S&P. Going into today, we don't have that same signal on a daily, just that the uptrend movement has ended, but no sell signal yet. If we get a sideways or lower day, I see that sell signal popping up either tomorrow or Wednesday. So I might be a bit neutral until I see that lower time frame confirmation.
With that said, trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I dunno honestly. I don't feel overly comfortable up here at 4150. I could see it bounce off the 6hr again at 4138 (which is also the zero neutral on the day).
The Short Position;
I may look to go short if we get that 1hr uptrend, perhaps around 4160. I would be cautious with it though, as I could see us ending somewhere around 4150 here and really letting the bearish positioning build back up.
Overall, I may not trade today, as I'm not a fan at this point of either position. I have made around $29,000 between this 4100 and 4200 level. Continuing to trade within this zone by just bouncing back and forth is almost TOO predictable at this point, and I feel like I am pushing my luck if I just continue to assume every move up will falter and every dip will be bought up.
Economic Data;
I don't see some major economic data point that will rock the market this week until perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday. If he comes in with a heavy handed tone it could cause the market to falter and break down. Otherwise, I go over them in the video but I don't see any of the data jolting the data out of this neutral mood.
Earnings;
I think the Earnings story this week is underrated. Most major retail companies come out today and I think the forward guidance and Earnings reports could show consumer spending habits early on that could begin bleeding into the economy.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/bearish
Long Term - Neutral/bullish
I will mark this as a Short based on my belief that on a medium term we head lower.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
On a side note, if you are looking for a nice vacation, I'd suggest looking into Argentina. I feel emotional pain for the country and the economic issues they are going through... however it should also be recognized that due to their economic woes, most countries have a much higher value in currency and a trip to areas even like Patagonia would be relatively cheap in comparison.
I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from there or try to get a 2hr uptrend. The 2hr uptrend may lower high or a higher high, I think it is too close to call. If we get a higher high, I'd expect some retracement down but once we get that movement down there is the potential it could try to push us higher. However, before we look to move higher, we'd have to shrug off the downtrend momentum that has already formed on the 30m/1hr/2hr/3hr timeframes.
We did settle briefly below the 6hr trendline that has acted as a major support, but now we are above that again also, and we have to now battle back down beneath it if we are going to stay down there, and then we still have the 12hr to battle past.
On a trend momentum level, we got a sell signal on a WEEKLY time frame with the S&P. Going into today, we don't have that same signal on a daily, just that the uptrend movement has ended, but no sell signal yet. If we get a sideways or lower day, I see that sell signal popping up either tomorrow or Wednesday. So I might be a bit neutral until I see that lower time frame confirmation.
With that said, trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I dunno honestly. I don't feel overly comfortable up here at 4150. I could see it bounce off the 6hr again at 4138 (which is also the zero neutral on the day).
The Short Position;
I may look to go short if we get that 1hr uptrend, perhaps around 4160. I would be cautious with it though, as I could see us ending somewhere around 4150 here and really letting the bearish positioning build back up.
Overall, I may not trade today, as I'm not a fan at this point of either position. I have made around $29,000 between this 4100 and 4200 level. Continuing to trade within this zone by just bouncing back and forth is almost TOO predictable at this point, and I feel like I am pushing my luck if I just continue to assume every move up will falter and every dip will be bought up.
Economic Data;
I don't see some major economic data point that will rock the market this week until perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday. If he comes in with a heavy handed tone it could cause the market to falter and break down. Otherwise, I go over them in the video but I don't see any of the data jolting the data out of this neutral mood.
Earnings;
I think the Earnings story this week is underrated. Most major retail companies come out today and I think the forward guidance and Earnings reports could show consumer spending habits early on that could begin bleeding into the economy.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/bearish
Long Term - Neutral/bullish
I will mark this as a Short based on my belief that on a medium term we head lower.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
On a side note, if you are looking for a nice vacation, I'd suggest looking into Argentina. I feel emotional pain for the country and the economic issues they are going through... however it should also be recognized that due to their economic woes, most countries have a much higher value in currency and a trip to areas even like Patagonia would be relatively cheap in comparison.
Comment:
Low volume open
Comment:
Currently about to get a higher high 30m after we got a lower low 30m. Definitely glad I stayed out today. Market has zero idea where to go.
Last was 10.8
Projected to be -3.7
Actual was -31.8
Above zero is improvement in NY manufacturing
Below zero is worsening conditions for the same.
Not the most major data point and only applies to NY which could have alternative reasons. But yikes!