Will the S&P have the first negative Earnings Season?
So I am short at 4175, still grasping on to the market losing its footing at this level and falling back towards 4000. Friday's dip though was immediately gobbled up and we ended up at basically break even overall on the day. So we shall see. The trends have allowed us some wiggle room to move upward, although we wouldn't be able to get too much higher before we would be maxed out to the upside again.
We are heading into Earnings season, starting with some banking earnings last Friday and now have a few dozen companies reporting this week. The S&P has yet to have a bad earnings season, even during the peak of inflation, as all the dips happened before or after the Earnings season, so the real question is does that optimism and at times misleading data (The Walmart Effect) continue to attract investors to companies that appear to be overpriced? Or do companies warn investors of the potential economic impact of continued inflation, possible stagflation, and the likelihood of a recession and that it might negatively impact things and investors hear that message? Guess we will know in a few weeks.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4155 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
There is nothing here that appears it is going to just break through and melt down just yet.
The Long Position;
So far, any dip has been led by a rally back to at least neutral. With Trends still primed to go higher, I might get behind any rally if we see a major dip today. Additionally, if things get above 4175 I think we could drive up to 4200 or at least the 1hr uptrend (which I think will be around 4200).
The Short Position;
I'm in it at 4175. If we see a major move that breaks down below 4140 again we might settle in around 4120 for a riskier and less profitable trade. I see any major downswing still coming up, not just because of the buy the dip mentality but also because trends are all in an upward move.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. I am heavily interested in the US Dollar attempting to regain some value lately though, as it seems to be spiraling down in most markets over the last couple months.
Earnings;
Charles Schwab is today. Basically the profits went up in Q1 but the deposits continue to fall in the company, causing some financial concern so the stock is down.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ..... Neutral with Bullish sprinkled on top
Safe trading, and remember that risk management plan!
We are heading into Earnings season, starting with some banking earnings last Friday and now have a few dozen companies reporting this week. The S&P has yet to have a bad earnings season, even during the peak of inflation, as all the dips happened before or after the Earnings season, so the real question is does that optimism and at times misleading data (The Walmart Effect) continue to attract investors to companies that appear to be overpriced? Or do companies warn investors of the potential economic impact of continued inflation, possible stagflation, and the likelihood of a recession and that it might negatively impact things and investors hear that message? Guess we will know in a few weeks.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4155 Downtrend (4/14/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4174 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4146 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4160 Uptrend (4/12/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
There is nothing here that appears it is going to just break through and melt down just yet.
The Long Position;
So far, any dip has been led by a rally back to at least neutral. With Trends still primed to go higher, I might get behind any rally if we see a major dip today. Additionally, if things get above 4175 I think we could drive up to 4200 or at least the 1hr uptrend (which I think will be around 4200).
The Short Position;
I'm in it at 4175. If we see a major move that breaks down below 4140 again we might settle in around 4120 for a riskier and less profitable trade. I see any major downswing still coming up, not just because of the buy the dip mentality but also because trends are all in an upward move.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. I am heavily interested in the US Dollar attempting to regain some value lately though, as it seems to be spiraling down in most markets over the last couple months.
Earnings;
Charles Schwab is today. Basically the profits went up in Q1 but the deposits continue to fall in the company, causing some financial concern so the stock is down.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ..... Neutral with Bullish sprinkled on top
Safe trading, and remember that risk management plan!
Comment:
Low volume open, but typical rally on the open. Lately the real move has come around 30 minutes after the open, then reversed by around 13:00 EST. See if today ends up any different