ES(SPX)Bulltrap? may fall 30% to 3400 if H&S neck@4128 is lost
My thesis: The pandemic drop was 35%. The sentiment now is even more bearish. So I use that drop as a fractal to guide me where SPX may react at certain critical levels going forward.
BEARISH CASE: I super-impose the pandemic top onto the recent wave b turning top at 4640. SPX fell but bounced from 3800 but was rejected by 4200 with the oversold RSI already turning down. 4200 is approximately where the weekly ema10 & the violet VWAP from 4640 top is located. It means the average price of those who bought at 4640 is still at a loss.
SPX is also rejected by the base of the Ichimuko cloud.
The reason I said this may be just a bulltrap is because 4128 is the neckline of the H&S pattern from 4808 ATH. SPX many times overshoots previous highs, trapping buyers before turning down. 4200 technically is still inside the zone where SPX may be rejected by the neck. If the 4200 to 4000 zone does not hold in the next few days, then the measured move of H&S may play out pulling SPX down to 3400(a 30% drop from ATH).
Other strong supports are 3500 (27%drop to 0.50 Fib retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also approximately WMA200). 3200 is a 34% drop to 0.618 Fib. (Remember the pandemic fractal is also a 35% drop).The downtrend continues & 3800 may not hold this time.
BULLISH CASE: there may be some consolidation in the next few weeks within the 4200 to 4000 zone before SPX gains strength to BO above the 24Jan first low @4212. This also is a BO above the falling wedge. Price action may follow the fractal to break a new high in early 2023 reaching the 5200 to 5250 red zone. (A 1.618 Fib of the H&S height).
Not trading advice
BEARISH CASE: I super-impose the pandemic top onto the recent wave b turning top at 4640. SPX fell but bounced from 3800 but was rejected by 4200 with the oversold RSI already turning down. 4200 is approximately where the weekly ema10 & the violet VWAP from 4640 top is located. It means the average price of those who bought at 4640 is still at a loss.
SPX is also rejected by the base of the Ichimuko cloud.
The reason I said this may be just a bulltrap is because 4128 is the neckline of the H&S pattern from 4808 ATH. SPX many times overshoots previous highs, trapping buyers before turning down. 4200 technically is still inside the zone where SPX may be rejected by the neck. If the 4200 to 4000 zone does not hold in the next few days, then the measured move of H&S may play out pulling SPX down to 3400(a 30% drop from ATH).
Other strong supports are 3500 (27%drop to 0.50 Fib retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also approximately WMA200). 3200 is a 34% drop to 0.618 Fib. (Remember the pandemic fractal is also a 35% drop).The downtrend continues & 3800 may not hold this time.
BULLISH CASE: there may be some consolidation in the next few weeks within the 4200 to 4000 zone before SPX gains strength to BO above the 24Jan first low @4212. This also is a BO above the falling wedge. Price action may follow the fractal to break a new high in early 2023 reaching the 5200 to 5250 red zone. (A 1.618 Fib of the H&S height).
Not trading advice