SemperTrader

Trends into 3/6 week call for some initial corrective action

Short
SemperTrader Updated   
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
The rally I had expected showed up, and now I feel it is time to have a cooling off moment before it decides where we head to next.

In order to save a lot of time, I've removed the trend lines I usually maintain, because it takes a while to have to draw them out, and just went with the major one that is in focus, and listing all the trends in the box.

Ultimately we have a number of lower high's from the 1hr to the 6hr that we have violated. That leads me to believe that some of this rally may come back, and we need some cooling off before we decide a direction. I don't know that I want to get into any major positions with the market at the moment until I get some clarification.

The Trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4044 Downtrend (3/06/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3969 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 3983 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4013 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4006 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4039 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

The Long Position;
If I see a few downtrend signals pop that allow us to have a higher low, but the price action begins to rally off that mark, I will likely go in Long to capitalize on the current rally movement as I've not had a signal that this rally should end in the short term at this time.

The Short Position;
I've received a sell signal on my Momentum script on a weekly basis. I don't have a lot of back study involved in a price diversion between the weekly movement and weekly move signal, but we've been in a rally and had an up week, but ended last week with a sell signal. I find that concerning.
I think at least in the short term, if some micro trends or even the 30m begin to show continued lower lows and lower highs, I will likely short the market at least back to 4000. This is my more likely expectation of the next movement.

My sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral

I'm not ready to throw in the towel on a rally just yet, I just see some potential downside before more possible upside, so I want to wait and be patient.

Because I believe the first movement could be a down move, I'm listing this as a Short for the day.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
Comment:
Not worth a new video, although that upward movement and drop back to nearly flat really coincides with my analysis at this point.

My outlook today is now;
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Comment:
I should point out that it came right to that Daily resistance level of 4983 I'd suspected would be an issue and failed there. Had it gotten just a mere point higher I would have shorted, but it only peaked at 4082.5 and not 4083
Comment:
I'm short 4060 into this speech.
Moderately hawkish Powell so far, and already mentioned that he believes they will have to go higher than expected and stay longer than expected.
Comment:
So a few trend marks are in...
30m came in as a higher low at 4051 which was prior to the speech.

1hr came in as higher low at 4011
2hr came in as a lower low at 4011

So, the 1hr would call for an upward bounce movement, 2hr calls for more sideways downward movement, I'll be holding my current trade open to see if one proves to be more guidance than the other.
Comment:
I've decided to cash out at 4005 for a 55 point gain, or just $2750. I think it could have some more room for downward movement, buuuuut... That's a great profit for a day and I'm gonna go take a nap.
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