One more Minor Rally and then... who knows? But First...

So we got most of the rally I had expected yesterday. I did not expect it to drop off 70% of the way through the rally though and drop off hard. That being said, I still expect than for us to reach up and grab a 2hr Uptrend signal. If you look, you see the 2hr now sticking out like a splinter in your finger as it is just running against every other trend indicator.

Unfortunately, while I did make $1000 yesterday, nothing really went according to plan even with the market moving much of the way I expected and I did not get to capitalize on my own market analysis coming through.... I'm over it though.

If you don't feel like watching the video, the trends are as follows;

Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3630 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High
1Hr - 3644 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

Statistically, we have not had more than 5 down days in a row all year, and so in that level of statistics, today should be an up day.

Additionally, most days before CPI data have been pumped upwards.

Earnings;
We had PepsiCo report, they beat estimates.

Economic Data;
PPI (Headline and Core) is today (8:30 EST)
FOMC Minutes also (14:00 EST)
I expect both to begin to cause some significant movement.

I would tread carefully over the next couple of days. Make sure to double check your risk management plan.

My Sentiment Today;
Shorter Term ; Bullish
Short Term ; Neutral
Medium Term ; Neutral Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish

Comment:

Core PPI stayed the same, Headline PPI actually increased. And Down we go. Can't say I didn't put some warning out. Potentially new lows? I'm not sure. Not sure how I want to trade this at the moment.

Comment:

The Full report is as follows
Core PPI MoM - Last .3% Expected .3%, Actual .3%
Core PPI YoY - Last 7.2% Expected 7.3%, Actual 7.2%
PPI (Headline) MoM - Last -.2%, Expected .2%, Actual .4%
PPI (Headline) YoY - Last 8.7%, Expected 8.4%,Actual 8.5%

Remember, Headline includes Food and Gas type things, Core does not.

Comment:

Nothing is more annoying to me than the "Experts" keep talking about that JOLTs Report and how it isn't falling in line with current data. IT IS 2 MONTHS OLD! Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez. LoL

Comment:

The irony that we are opening at pretty much the exact same price point we did yesterday.... And no, this time I will not be going long into the open at 3604.... lol

Comment:

30m Downtrend is forming. It will be a lower low.

Comment:

There was a knife catch signal at 3586, I did not snag it. I do not feel comfortable about that level, especially with it too close to meeting current lows. Why get in here if we can get into a long at 3560ish.

Comment:

Damn... could have snagged at least 1k and then sat back out =\ I still think we may head lower before we get a rally for the day into positive territory.

Comment:

Well this day has been significantly less exciting than I'd anticipated after the bad PPI data. Perhaps no one wants to get ahead of CPI data now.

Comment:

Jeez... literally like a 15 point spread today for the most part. Clearly everyone feels the same as I do... that when it dips below 3600 it could go 20-30 points lower, and that once it starts to get up past 3600 it might rally. I don't like either potential at this point. Guess I'll wait until the close to decide how I may want to decide for tomorrow.

Comment:

We ended on finally getting a 30m downtrend signal at the close. The 1hr has not signaled down yet. The 30m is a lower low