Trends beginning to turn to the downside; I expect more
So I am yet again short at 4180. I've made my weekly goal at this point, and if things rally again back up to 4160 I'll likely just cash out, take my weekly
2500
quota, and sit out this week.
However, trends are beginning to show that dip backwards, even if currently it is only the lower timeframes of the 30m and 1hr. We got lower highs and lower lows off both. This does however, leave the 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr (just barely and only just recently) violated. I expect to see a 6hr downtrend today, and then likely some potential movement back up around that area. However, if it blows past that point, I'll likely try to ride it down as best as possible.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Again, any dip so far has been bought up. I think that mentality is going to weaken as we go, but there is a potential bounce at any moment. A decent entry point could be at a 6hr downtrend mark, or likely around 4120ish.
The Short Position;
I'm in the short position. If you didn't go short, I'm not sure where I'd feel comfortable in, except MAYBE a 30m uptrend mark, which would probably hit around 4160 or so. Ironically, that is the same area I would take profit and exit... so yeah. The market has lately had a hard time with a downside follow through, so I don't know that I would jump in as a short on a FOMO downslide.
Economic Data;
We have jobs data today. Should be important, but it has been really mixed in terms of how it has been traded.
Earnings;
Tesla came in poorly yesterday, and the stock shows that. Many of the major ones today have been mixed, with some beatings earnings but missing revenue, or vice versa. I checked AT&T, and that was the same mixed review there.
Geopolitical Issue;
I forgot to mention in the video... Janet Yellen is speaking today, the Treasury Secretary. Not sure if she has an angle, or misses the spotlight lately as she really seems to want to push herself into relevancy lately, but she apparently wants to discuss China and National Security and outlining the need to sacrifice economically to safeguard against China's influence.
Additionally, it appears that the US dollar may be regaining some of it's strength across the spectrum, except against gold.
My sentiment into today is (From 4150ish);
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ............ Very conflcted here. I don't know.
To continue to share potential sell signals... though again realize I'm only trading on the S&P at the moment...
/VX is the only buy signal (yes, there is a future contract for the VIX)
Sell signals include the /ES (You're here), the /NQ (Nasdaq), Australian/Mexican/Canadian currencies (/6A, /6M, /6C respectively), the /RTY (Russell 2000), and /HG (Copper).
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
However, trends are beginning to show that dip backwards, even if currently it is only the lower timeframes of the 30m and 1hr. We got lower highs and lower lows off both. This does however, leave the 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr (just barely and only just recently) violated. I expect to see a 6hr downtrend today, and then likely some potential movement back up around that area. However, if it blows past that point, I'll likely try to ride it down as best as possible.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4149 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Again, any dip so far has been bought up. I think that mentality is going to weaken as we go, but there is a potential bounce at any moment. A decent entry point could be at a 6hr downtrend mark, or likely around 4120ish.
The Short Position;
I'm in the short position. If you didn't go short, I'm not sure where I'd feel comfortable in, except MAYBE a 30m uptrend mark, which would probably hit around 4160 or so. Ironically, that is the same area I would take profit and exit... so yeah. The market has lately had a hard time with a downside follow through, so I don't know that I would jump in as a short on a FOMO downslide.
Economic Data;
We have jobs data today. Should be important, but it has been really mixed in terms of how it has been traded.
Earnings;
Tesla came in poorly yesterday, and the stock shows that. Many of the major ones today have been mixed, with some beatings earnings but missing revenue, or vice versa. I checked AT&T, and that was the same mixed review there.
Geopolitical Issue;
I forgot to mention in the video... Janet Yellen is speaking today, the Treasury Secretary. Not sure if she has an angle, or misses the spotlight lately as she really seems to want to push herself into relevancy lately, but she apparently wants to discuss China and National Security and outlining the need to sacrifice economically to safeguard against China's influence.
Additionally, it appears that the US dollar may be regaining some of it's strength across the spectrum, except against gold.
My sentiment into today is (From 4150ish);
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - ............ Very conflcted here. I don't know.
To continue to share potential sell signals... though again realize I'm only trading on the S&P at the moment...
/VX is the only buy signal (yes, there is a future contract for the VIX)
Sell signals include the /ES (You're here), the /NQ (Nasdaq), Australian/Mexican/Canadian currencies (/6A, /6M, /6C respectively), the /RTY (Russell 2000), and /HG (Copper).
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing data came in below expectations at -31 instead of an expected -19. While not the biggest piece of economic data, the amount of surprise downside could really impact the market.