7/12/2022 Trends and Continued Direction

Overnight we saw the 2-Hour and the 3-Hour turn into downtrends. The 3-Hour Downtrend did have an immediate pullback, and shows it may have some resistance getting to a 4-Hour Downtrend.

I stayed up late last night to trade between the 1-Hour Downtrend until the 2-Hour Downtrend developed. The 2-Hour definitely looks healthy, and it really pushed further than was required to develop.

Remember though, the downward momentum of yesterday was not with overly high volume. This downward movement isn't really like the "market dumps" we've seen with a loss of 100 points in a day either. I plan to cautiously trade down, but I could see a return to try and get above that 4-Hour Downtrend once more a small possibility. We are only 30 points away from it. Remember, when we reversed away from the 12-Hour it appeared it was a completely false signal, but then it nearly dragged us back up towards it. Most trends last about 40-50 bars, so while the 4-Hour Uptrend was built on a low volume moves and pushing against the longer downtrends of the Daily and Weekly, it would be having it's life cut short to switch over so soon.

My eyes will be on Earnings for today, and then Earnings and CPI tomorrow. I will also be looking to see how movement is going past the 3-Hour Downtrend signal. If the 4-Hour flips on us, I'd estimate it will do it roughly around 3820-3815 or so, if it happens today. If it takes until tomorrow it could signal in higher.

In order to feel confident that we are going to push down and create a new 12-Hour Downtrend mark and therefore able to stay in a trade for a few days, I'd like to see some volume in our movement. Especially a downward movement. Pepsi managed to beat Revenue based on initial reports. They've advised they are cautious on their estimates because of inflation, and have tried to keep a more realistic approach to Earnings so I they don't want to jump and throw higher earnings out there and come up short.

Trade active:

Wasn't really expecting to trade, but I went Short at 3845.
The reasoning... the 15m Uptrend was flickering there. While 15m and below can be profitable, they are rarely good indicators when going against the longer indicators. I actually use their signals as signaling price is about to head towards whatever longer trend is nearby.

To review, since I forgot to put it, the current trends are;

Uptrend;
12-Hour, 6-Hour, 4-Hour (we are currently below all these trends)

Downtrends;
Weekly, Daily, 3-Hour, 2-Hour, 1-Hour, 30m

Trade closed: stop reached:

Ouch. Took a loss on that one. Just -$300, but never a great way to start the day off

Trade active:

Went short again here above the 1-Hour Downtrend Mark. However, if it stays this high by 10am, we may have a flipped 1-Hour mark already.

Trade closed manually:

I had closed that trade close to the 2-Hour Downtrend (which was my target). I let it pull back about $250 and just took profit. I did attempt another trade when it came back up here but that was just stopped out for lunch money.

My gut says it will fall back down to the 2-Hour, but I may not go short again up here, and instead wait to see it pass that 30m uptrend signal it made at 3850.

Trade active:

I entered into a longer trade from close to the 4-Hour trend line. I'm going to be using this trade to trade to the new 12-Hour Downtrend, which should be close to 3760 or so, maybe lower.

Depending on how it looks during that progress, I may jump out, but I like the look of things of finding a new low lately.