If you don't want to watch the video, here is the trends going into 10/19/2022;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3709 Downtrend (10/18/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3681 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As I said in the video, things are a bit mixed up at this point, with medium timeframe trends accompanied by the 6hr trend in an uptrend, and the 4hr, 12hr, and Daily all in that downtrend.
I expect today to be a negative overall for the day, perhaps bringing us down below 3700 several times. However, before we get there, we have to see if this 1hr Uptrending line can maintain us as a support level, which thus far it has managed to accomplish. The 30m and 2hr were pretty close to each other, and we ended up crashing through both just recently going into this morning, which reversed another near 1.5% gain overnight at the peak.
While I find it frustrating to have to sit out, I'd prefer to let the market show me a design in all of these major upswings and downswings, then to jump in on the wrong side of a major movement and have to take a quick negative loss. Basically I feel we are currently in almost a 50/50 in where we go from here, but any movement up I have little faith in, since the bullish uptrends just haven't formed enough to begin erasing such a bearish market, even for a bear market rally.
Outside of Trends we've got;
Earnings - Tesla is AMC today. That will be a major driving force in the market today. Reports I have is that revenue is at an all time high, but more because of price hikes than sales, and that the company may be having issues meeting the projecting sales growth they wanted.
There are a few other major companies I went over in the video, and I'll report on the big ones in the comments as we go.
Economic Data - Nothing major today that I see really driving the market anywhere. It'll be movements more based around earnings and technicals than any economic data.
My current sentiment;
Shorter Term ; Neutral
Short Term ; Bearish
Medium Term ; Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish
What a bag of mixed feelings that is, right?
Anyways, remember your risk management plan, and safe trading!
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3709 Downtrend (10/18/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3681 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As I said in the video, things are a bit mixed up at this point, with medium timeframe trends accompanied by the 6hr trend in an uptrend, and the 4hr, 12hr, and Daily all in that downtrend.
I expect today to be a negative overall for the day, perhaps bringing us down below 3700 several times. However, before we get there, we have to see if this 1hr Uptrending line can maintain us as a support level, which thus far it has managed to accomplish. The 30m and 2hr were pretty close to each other, and we ended up crashing through both just recently going into this morning, which reversed another near 1.5% gain overnight at the peak.
While I find it frustrating to have to sit out, I'd prefer to let the market show me a design in all of these major upswings and downswings, then to jump in on the wrong side of a major movement and have to take a quick negative loss. Basically I feel we are currently in almost a 50/50 in where we go from here, but any movement up I have little faith in, since the bullish uptrends just haven't formed enough to begin erasing such a bearish market, even for a bear market rally.
Outside of Trends we've got;
Earnings - Tesla is AMC today. That will be a major driving force in the market today. Reports I have is that revenue is at an all time high, but more because of price hikes than sales, and that the company may be having issues meeting the projecting sales growth they wanted.
There are a few other major companies I went over in the video, and I'll report on the big ones in the comments as we go.
Economic Data - Nothing major today that I see really driving the market anywhere. It'll be movements more based around earnings and technicals than any economic data.
My current sentiment;
Shorter Term ; Neutral
Short Term ; Bearish
Medium Term ; Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish
What a bag of mixed feelings that is, right?
Anyways, remember your risk management plan, and safe trading!
Comment:
Just to update, the Twitter deal is 44 Billion, not million like I was thinking. So at some point if the deal goes through, be prepared for Elon to do a 44 billion sell off.
Comment:
Proctor and Gamble beat Estimates, in spite of reduced sales. Again... Walmart Effect on Earnings. Set the low bar, so you look healthy.
Abbot Labs raised future expectations and beat earnings, but also had recognized reduced sales.
ELV beat Earnings, no downside I saw there.
IBM and Tesla are AMC as I said earlier.
Abbot Labs raised future expectations and beat earnings, but also had recognized reduced sales.
ELV beat Earnings, no downside I saw there.
IBM and Tesla are AMC as I said earlier.
Comment:
Current price action is really trying to test this 1hr Uptrend line. Keeps getting below and then shooting back above it.
Comment:
Came back to check things, and saw we got a 1hr downtrend mark at 3707 at the close of the 9am est bar. Ironically, this was almost exactly in line with the higher high uptrend line we were already following.
Comment:
2hr Downtrend is now forming as well. We'd have to maintain this level until 15:00 EST
Comment:
So the only sector in the green for today is Energy. In watching Biden's current speech, I'm wondering if that is going to reduce some of those gains as he again targets after energy (gas/oil) companies.
Comment:
Thus far the reaction is the energy industry is gaining traction, not losing anything. Almost at 3% for the day, was 2.5% at the start of the speech
Comment:
About to surpass that 3% increase in the energy sector. I'm kind of surprised, I would of thought that targeting the stocks of energy companies and attacking dividend payments would have caused some caution towards energy stocks, not attraction to them.
Comment:
I'm tempted to short here, but going to just stick with my original plan. I could see us coming down here about another 20 points and revisit that below 3690 level one more time today. I think this downward push gets to around 3640-3660. Might work it overnight.
We failed to snag that 2hr downtrend, but again, I don't see anything healthy trend wise to keep a rally going at this point, especially with us close to beginning to form healthy lows to any future rally.
We failed to snag that 2hr downtrend, but again, I don't see anything healthy trend wise to keep a rally going at this point, especially with us close to beginning to form healthy lows to any future rally.
Comment:
Tesla beat earnings, but just barely (they lowered estimates in September, remember). Continue to claim they will make the target growth, but lots of discussion in their earnings on difficulties of attempting to make up ground in production and sales, even with proclaiming they will make it happen.
Comment:
IBM Beat Earnings, and also increased future projections. Thus far, Tesla stocks are down, IBM stocks are up in after market hours
Comment:
Looks like a relatively flat close here. I'll probably check back on this idea once more at 6pm to see if we gap up or down while the Futures are closed for the hour.
Thanks to TradingView for Highlighting me today, and all those that jumped in to listen and make the move along with me, the endorsements, and new follows. Even though I mostly do this myself so that I know I'm thinking through the markets properly, I'm both humbled and honored by the support.
If you are interested in continuing to see how Trend Trading works and to follow along, I do a new video every morning as I look at the trends, and also briefly talk about important Earnings/Economic Data or other issues that may throw the market into turmoil.
Thanks, and remember to always check and stick to your risk management plan!
Thanks to TradingView for Highlighting me today, and all those that jumped in to listen and make the move along with me, the endorsements, and new follows. Even though I mostly do this myself so that I know I'm thinking through the markets properly, I'm both humbled and honored by the support.
If you are interested in continuing to see how Trend Trading works and to follow along, I do a new video every morning as I look at the trends, and also briefly talk about important Earnings/Economic Data or other issues that may throw the market into turmoil.
Thanks, and remember to always check and stick to your risk management plan!
Comment:
So I forgot I had dinner plans with a friend tonight. I did go short after we gapped down at 3710. I had a stop profit set for 3690, so I snagged that $1000 for the day. Obviously I have already missed out as it went lower since another 10+ points, but I'm good with the trade. I might stay up a bit and see if we hit that 3650 level overnight.
If not, well, I'll be fresh and ready to see how things have progressed when I wake up at about 5:30am EST.
If not, well, I'll be fresh and ready to see how things have progressed when I wake up at about 5:30am EST.
Comment:
While I have a new video up for the day, I felt that finishing this thread with the TESLA outlook might benefit some. TESLA is really down in premarket trading. If this isn't looked at as a "Buy the Dip" mentality for the company, it could send it down below 200 as the market opens and people look to offload. TESLA being such a heavyweight in the S&P and Nasdaq, I could see it pulling the whole IT Sector down and causing poor sentiment overall and bringing both indexes down a bit lower.
Comment:
The 2hr trend is nearly hit. Once that happens. It'll be deciding if it will continue on to that 4hr without a pullback.
Comment:
There it is... pinging in at 3678. I would have thought it would have started to signal higher because of that push up before we came back down here, but it doesn't appear so in the end. Have to hold 3678 or lower until 15:00 EST to get the signal. Then it is all about seeing how it looks to keep heading to the 4hr.
Comment:
I cashed out my short from 3740 at 3670. $3500 is good enough for today. I still believe we push further down to around that 3650 range, but I'm satisfied with my trade at this point. I'll still check in.