After the morning plummet, outlook is hard to see
So I went short last night at 3961 believing that the late day surge was illogical. In fact, I didn't go on a tangent in the video, but many news articles said "Inflation is cooling and markets are surging". That is a downright lie, and why you need to understand Economic Data and find things yourself. CPI INCREASED from .4% to .5%, which isn't a major jump, but certainly doesn't show things going down.
I've cashed out this morning already at 3880 for $4000 when we hit a 2% drop on the day in just an hour. My analysis says we should head back up now, but I've held off going Long at this point as while the technical analysis says we should bounce, this Credit Suisse continuation of financial collapse fears came with a vengeance. Honestly, at over $10k for the week now, I really might just sit out today and let fear vs analysis work itself out unless I see a fantastic entry point.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3935 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
The current area is already a decent entry point (3880ish). Any more movement down without some supporting information is likely to garner even more confidence of a pop back up to at least the level of 3913-3922.
The Short Position;
I don't really have an analysis that would cause me to go short again from here (3880). I'd have to see us rally back up and get at least a 30m uptrend mark and hold onto more potential for a downside here to get involved in a short. I'll update later, but at this time there is not much that would cause me to snag a short this low on the day already.
Economic Data;
PPI and Retail Sales is today. It might give some insight into the FOMC hiking rates or pausing to try and heal this financial crisis issue that has surfaced.
My sentiment into today (from 3880);
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
I want to dive into the belief we are heading towards those October lows, but I think there is just too much sentiment at the moment for us to get below 3800, and the technical analysis doesn't support any strong pushes down just yet.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long", as while I think we will end up negative on the day, I think we head up above this level of 3880.
I've cashed out this morning already at 3880 for $4000 when we hit a 2% drop on the day in just an hour. My analysis says we should head back up now, but I've held off going Long at this point as while the technical analysis says we should bounce, this Credit Suisse continuation of financial collapse fears came with a vengeance. Honestly, at over $10k for the week now, I really might just sit out today and let fear vs analysis work itself out unless I see a fantastic entry point.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3935 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
The current area is already a decent entry point (3880ish). Any more movement down without some supporting information is likely to garner even more confidence of a pop back up to at least the level of 3913-3922.
The Short Position;
I don't really have an analysis that would cause me to go short again from here (3880). I'd have to see us rally back up and get at least a 30m uptrend mark and hold onto more potential for a downside here to get involved in a short. I'll update later, but at this time there is not much that would cause me to snag a short this low on the day already.
Economic Data;
PPI and Retail Sales is today. It might give some insight into the FOMC hiking rates or pausing to try and heal this financial crisis issue that has surfaced.
My sentiment into today (from 3880);
Shorter Term - Bullish
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
I want to dive into the belief we are heading towards those October lows, but I think there is just too much sentiment at the moment for us to get below 3800, and the technical analysis doesn't support any strong pushes down just yet.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long", as while I think we will end up negative on the day, I think we head up above this level of 3880.
Comment:
Went Long at 3872. I saw that info as more favorable then a negative. Not sure why the push down after the data. Will cautiously try to hold this into an upward movement.
Comment:
Stopped out already for lunch money. Going to hold off on another decision. I had 3867 marked as a level as it was the closing lows of yesterday, but not sure I wanna jump in just yet again
Comment:
I'm long at 3880. Kinda wished I'd jumped back in at the 3867 level I had marked, but oh well. Gave up a few gains for a more comfortable turn around spot
Comment:
If this continues upward, I don't know that I will hold it above 3921 (where the 1hr downtrend hit). I suppose it depends on how hard it hits that level, but that was where I expected the downward move from yesterday's pop to hit (not down to the 3800s).
Comment:
Bleh, exited at 3890 for profit for the moment. Wasn't expecting such a strong push backwards at this point.
Comment:
Hmm... it appears the pop is failing today because the Energy sector is being demolished (likely from pending fears of a recession?). Oil is down 5% today, which is crazy
Comment:
Made $1500 from being stopped out, and $2000 from this last move up. I've cashed out for the day at a total of $7500. Got the move I expected, not sure if we drop back down, stay here, or move back up at this point, so I think I'm gonna sit out the rest of the day.
Retail Sales fell more than expected at -4%
Empire Manufacturing a surprise to the downside of -24%
Should allow the FOMC to hike lower or halt rate hikes altogether based off this data point. Although CPI data was higher yesterday, so there is that.