Trends Going into 7/22/2022; No Go Zone grows
So overnight we didn't have much change since I had made that video yesterday showing the warning sign the 30m trend is giving and explained why if you're interested in seeing more on trend trading.
The Upside; Look for a push upward on the 30m that closes above 4000ish as a sign that the 30m has gone back into an uptrend. It shouldn't take too much to get us back into an upward momentum, but I'll likely look at anything under that as nothing but a short term scalp up move, especially if it drops below 3980. So, above 4000 I'll likely be going in on upwards, and above 4018 I'll start to look to take profit most likely.
The Downside; Our No Go Zone grows ever larger until this 30m trend can decide if it changes up. I would cautiously trade down, as most trends are upwards, unless we get below 3935ish. If we drop below that, prepare for a potential plunge, at least to back under or around 3900, where we will be looking to the 4-Hour Uptrend for support. Below that, and we won't have much more support other than reversing downtrends the start to signal and look to for reversals.
The Most Likely; We aren't too far from trying to get a new high today, so that is possible. Most likely though, we could end up trading in this large No Go Zone of 4000 to 3935 for the entire day. I think a huge drop off today is the least likely scenario. I'll be watching to see if we start to flip flop the 1-Hour trend marks into something that is descending.
Data to Watch; Earnings season is still upon us, and all major companies are BTO today. The big reporting for the day (all of medium weight) is American Express, NextEra Energy, and Verizon. The biggest is Verizon, and AT&T just beat estimates yesterday, so that may also occur here with Verizon.
No major economic data today, though in cased you missed yesterday (the only economic data of any noteworthy for the week) the Jobless Claim went up and surpassed expectations. Normally that is bad news, however, the Fed is also trying to slow growth, so maybe it is good news showing the rate hikes are working? Too early to tell in my opinion. Also there was the Phily Fed Manufacturing Index, that came in -12.3 when it was only supposed to be -2.5... so that also is bad news normally, but now we have to look at is as possible bad news towards a recession but maybe good news at fighting inflation.
Next week will be huge on economic items to watch, but not really until Wednesday when the Fed rate hike is coming out anyways. I'm guessing 75 bps is the likely outcome, but watch for another "mysterious news report" of either going lower at 50 or higher at 100 like we had last month.
To recap;
Uptrends; 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 6H, 12H
Downtrends; 30m, D, W
Caution between 4000 and 3934
Trade Safely and remember your risk management plan.
The Upside; Look for a push upward on the 30m that closes above 4000ish as a sign that the 30m has gone back into an uptrend. It shouldn't take too much to get us back into an upward momentum, but I'll likely look at anything under that as nothing but a short term scalp up move, especially if it drops below 3980. So, above 4000 I'll likely be going in on upwards, and above 4018 I'll start to look to take profit most likely.
The Downside; Our No Go Zone grows ever larger until this 30m trend can decide if it changes up. I would cautiously trade down, as most trends are upwards, unless we get below 3935ish. If we drop below that, prepare for a potential plunge, at least to back under or around 3900, where we will be looking to the 4-Hour Uptrend for support. Below that, and we won't have much more support other than reversing downtrends the start to signal and look to for reversals.
The Most Likely; We aren't too far from trying to get a new high today, so that is possible. Most likely though, we could end up trading in this large No Go Zone of 4000 to 3935 for the entire day. I think a huge drop off today is the least likely scenario. I'll be watching to see if we start to flip flop the 1-Hour trend marks into something that is descending.
Data to Watch; Earnings season is still upon us, and all major companies are BTO today. The big reporting for the day (all of medium weight) is American Express, NextEra Energy, and Verizon. The biggest is Verizon, and AT&T just beat estimates yesterday, so that may also occur here with Verizon.
No major economic data today, though in cased you missed yesterday (the only economic data of any noteworthy for the week) the Jobless Claim went up and surpassed expectations. Normally that is bad news, however, the Fed is also trying to slow growth, so maybe it is good news showing the rate hikes are working? Too early to tell in my opinion. Also there was the Phily Fed Manufacturing Index, that came in -12.3 when it was only supposed to be -2.5... so that also is bad news normally, but now we have to look at is as possible bad news towards a recession but maybe good news at fighting inflation.
Next week will be huge on economic items to watch, but not really until Wednesday when the Fed rate hike is coming out anyways. I'm guessing 75 bps is the likely outcome, but watch for another "mysterious news report" of either going lower at 50 or higher at 100 like we had last month.
To recap;
Uptrends; 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 6H, 12H
Downtrends; 30m, D, W
Caution between 4000 and 3934
Trade Safely and remember your risk management plan.
Comment:
So I thought it would have pinged a bit higher, but that 30m is flashing at the moment around 3996. We need to close here in 10 minutes above 3996 to have that solid 30m back on an uptrend.
Comment:
Ooph... failure to close. See you just before 7:30 EST heh.
Comment:
So, I missed that Twitter reports today. It isn't actually a huge weight in terms of capital in the S&P... however... it might cause some forecasting into bigger companies like Meta since they both run off advertising. I expect Twitter to be down, especially with all the Elon Musk drama, but I guess we will see. News said they report at 8am. I might actually tune into that, just because it could cause confidence or jitters going into the big Tech Earnings of next week.
Comment:
Some thoughts to watch on this 30m Uptrend Signal we (or maybe just I haha) are waiting on. As long as we stay above 3973 (where the 30m uptrend signaled before) we know that when it does ping, it'll be an uptrending, uptrend. If we start to dip routinely down below 3973, especially if we take things to the 3940 and 3950 levels, while I don't think it is the big drop we are watching (that again, is 3934 currently), it COULD show a lower high uptrend, which would raise the danger bar of things beginning to head south.
Based on where that 30m downtrend signal is to where we are now, I actually find this a more likely scenario IF we are heading downward. So, watch for an overall negative day in that 3940 to 3950 level, as that will cause this downtrending uptrend signal, close off such the large No Go Trade zone, and raise the signal we are going Bearish.
Based on where that 30m downtrend signal is to where we are now, I actually find this a more likely scenario IF we are heading downward. So, watch for an overall negative day in that 3940 to 3950 level, as that will cause this downtrending uptrend signal, close off such the large No Go Trade zone, and raise the signal we are going Bearish.
Comment:
That 30m Uptrend signal is back to hang out again. Oh the suspense!
Comment:
30m stuck the landing, literally by the exact point. So we are back into a 30m uptrend. I'd look for bullish moves for the day, anything over 3996 as safe. Anything underneath I see as scalping territory only.
Comment:
I checked on the lower timeframes, and 15m is sporadic for the moment. An unsustainable uptrending line and an unsustainable downtrending line. A good time to scalp and entry will be if we dip to give us a 15m downtrend, as it will become an uptrending, downtrend signal. I will likely look at scalping that back up to this 3996 level, and evaluate how things go above that level to take an actual bullish move upwards.
Comment:
Twitter reported Earnings, looks like it missed on Earnings and Revenue. Some blame on Elon for that, but ad revenue is down for them. Ad revenue was down for Snap (SnapChat) also. This could carry into Meta and Alphabet (Google) who report next week, as there will be concern they also are falling on ad revenue, one of their primary sources of income.
Trade active:
Went long at 3997.5
Should at least make the high from yesterday, I'll likely take profit then and just evaluate again.
Should at least make the high from yesterday, I'll likely take profit then and just evaluate again.
Comment:
Verizon Earnings in and guidance. Believes in slowing growth over the next quarter and some issues with customers not paying bills. Missed Earnings just barely, beat revenue for last quarter.
Comment:
NextEra Energy smashed their Earnings report out of the park. Growth on Earnings and Revenue.
Comment:
Morgan Stanley's financial advisor gives this advice, "Expect the unexpected..."
Thanks bruh, why don't you go back to doing more unethical and illegal Market Spoofing to make sure you can turn a profit..
Thanks bruh, why don't you go back to doing more unethical and illegal Market Spoofing to make sure you can turn a profit..
Trade closed manually:
Closed my trade manually for lunch money. I think I'll look for a better entry point after things fizzled in pushing past the 30m uptrend for now.
Comment:
Bleh... hah... Could have made lunch, dinner, and the gas money to get there hah.
Comment:
So with every trend upward, we will either see some whipsaw or a melt upward. I'm not sure we have room for a melt upward after all that push we just had from the 3800 level. Lots of timeframes are oversold or near to.
I could see us hit a +\- 20 point day and end around the zero point, honestly. It would make sense with the potential of next week in Earnings but overall poor tone of reports today.
I could see us hit a +\- 20 point day and end around the zero point, honestly. It would make sense with the potential of next week in Earnings but overall poor tone of reports today.
Comment:
Ummm... my stock program just froze? Market spoof?
Comment:
Yep. I call market spoof again. Watch for this push up to suddenly dip.
Comment:
Scalped that market spoof. Took it 4008 back to the entry of 4002. No logic of trends behind it, I just felt it was a market spoof without a doubt so I jumped in to take it back neutral and sell out. That almost gives me my daily goal.
Comment:
I would be really surprised if we get above and hold above that 4009 level by the end of today because of that. If you are not aware of what market spoofing, major investment companies have been investigated for it for years, to include 3 people from JP Morgan currently on trial for it. It works in this way... a TON of buys/sells are made all at once, but canceled before they can execute. It causes the market to freeze and then shoots it in whatever initial direction that won't hold. It then immediately flies back the other way.
I'm fairly certain that is what happened when the CPI data came out and it screwed me out of my trade. It is nothing new. I would be cautious on holding anything above 4009. Look at potentially taking profit above that level if you have a good trade going on, or at least sell if it pulls back to that level.
I'm fairly certain that is what happened when the CPI data came out and it screwed me out of my trade. It is nothing new. I would be cautious on holding anything above 4009. Look at potentially taking profit above that level if you have a good trade going on, or at least sell if it pulls back to that level.
Comment:
Maybe it is just my connection? I just froze again.
Trade active:
Took a short at 4015.75. Just a scalp. Basing the scalp on an unsustainable 1m Uptrend. Only holding it until we get a 1m Downtrend signal.
Trade closed manually:
Closed that scalp out manually at 4005. $500 on a scalp is a total win. So I won't push it.
Trade active:
Took another scalp. 5m downtrend reverse signal at 3888, got in, but got out here as we hit 4000 for just 12 points.
I want to see the 15m fix itself before I go into the 30m trend. The 15m has uptrends going up, downtrends going down, and both trends are at unsustainable angles. The next 15m is a downtrend signal, which will be a reversal, but I'll trust that entry point to really take this day higher above the 30m.
I want to see the 15m fix itself before I go into the 30m trend. The 15m has uptrends going up, downtrends going down, and both trends are at unsustainable angles. The next 15m is a downtrend signal, which will be a reversal, but I'll trust that entry point to really take this day higher above the 30m.
Comment:
So... I actually took my scalping income today, about $1000, and just snagged some SnapChat stocks. I don't plan to get rid of them any time soon, but at just about $10 a share... yikes. Hard to pass that up.
Trade active:
Went long at 3979. This was the 15m Correcting action I was waiting for. Looking to see it close around the 30m Uptrend and then evaluate how it is doing from there.
Comment:
Mmmm, might have been a bit early. the 30m is actually pinging a downtrend down here. It will be a 30m downtrend reversal signal, but potentially a better entry point, though I'm not sure what I'd be looking for it to make it up to. Maybe neutral and then bail on it.
Comment:
That 30m did flip to a downtrend at 3977. It is a reversal signal at this point. I'd look at anything above it as at least going back to 0 on the day. There is a 2-Hour Uptrend at 4009, but I'm not sure we make it back that high before we get more guidance from the 30m.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Took an L at 3974. I'll revisit going back into an up position if we get back above 3980
Comment:
Went to enjoy sushi with a friend. Came back and geez... can't say I saw this level of a downward movement. Definitely could be some prep work to get us ready for a downward movement. If it is, and if trends act accordingly, we should have a swung up, but it won't be as high as we just had.
The 1-Hour Downtrend has shown up, but is indicating a reversal.
The 2-Hour is currently showing a downtrend now, but is also showing a reversal at this time.
Not that the market isn't capable of melting through all these uptrend movements at the snap of a finger, I would just find it odd. At the very least I'd like to see a downward trending uptrend signal on a lower timeline like the 30m. I had talked about it doing this where it will swing low, and then when it swings up the next uptrend movement will be lower than the last uptrend movement, and THAT will be a real signal we are reversing.
So much for a whipsaw day though. This has been trading in my no go zone like all day. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a pullback maybe to the 3980 level by the close, which I will no longer be looking at going in on, but I guess we shall wait and see.
Probably going to take my $1000 today and just end things.
The 1-Hour Downtrend has shown up, but is indicating a reversal.
The 2-Hour is currently showing a downtrend now, but is also showing a reversal at this time.
Not that the market isn't capable of melting through all these uptrend movements at the snap of a finger, I would just find it odd. At the very least I'd like to see a downward trending uptrend signal on a lower timeline like the 30m. I had talked about it doing this where it will swing low, and then when it swings up the next uptrend movement will be lower than the last uptrend movement, and THAT will be a real signal we are reversing.
So much for a whipsaw day though. This has been trading in my no go zone like all day. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a pullback maybe to the 3980 level by the close, which I will no longer be looking at going in on, but I guess we shall wait and see.
Probably going to take my $1000 today and just end things.
Comment:
2-Hour Downtrend popped here at 3950. We are just smashing through these uptrends, and downtrend reversal marks. Next stop, the 3-Hour. Not sure we get it today. Be interesting to see if it can make it pop below 3920 (the current Uptrend level of the 3-Hour).
Comment:
So, without a doubt this could be some prep work to send us lower. I see a movement back so that the 30m can recruit a few more trends to help with taking us lower if this is going to happen. Monday and Tuesday of next week might see some upward movement to 4000, but then back down to this 3950ish level.
What'll happen (should happen?) is slowly it will bring the trends to a flat position, initially making the last uptrend signals higher highs and downtrends signals lower lows, before converting those other trends also to lower high signals like the 30m is going to start having.
With the 30m Downtrend signal at 3977, it won't be difficult for that trend marker to continue getting that downtrend signal lower.
Now, it is Earnings season, and the FED decision comes out, so it's always possible that it forgets any sort of trending setup, and just melts in one direction or the next. I just would be surprised that the 30m trend leads this meltdown without any other trends joining in.
That also being said, we don't HAVE to have a meltdown on this next descent. I know that is what we've grown used to, but... with that bizarre month of leveling out below, I just want to see the 12-Hour downtrend signal before I can agree we continue higher, that long month long sideways action we went through COULD be bringing in the lows of the year. I don't know that we continue downward past October UNLESS, yet again, we head into a recession.
What'll happen (should happen?) is slowly it will bring the trends to a flat position, initially making the last uptrend signals higher highs and downtrends signals lower lows, before converting those other trends also to lower high signals like the 30m is going to start having.
With the 30m Downtrend signal at 3977, it won't be difficult for that trend marker to continue getting that downtrend signal lower.
Now, it is Earnings season, and the FED decision comes out, so it's always possible that it forgets any sort of trending setup, and just melts in one direction or the next. I just would be surprised that the 30m trend leads this meltdown without any other trends joining in.
That also being said, we don't HAVE to have a meltdown on this next descent. I know that is what we've grown used to, but... with that bizarre month of leveling out below, I just want to see the 12-Hour downtrend signal before I can agree we continue higher, that long month long sideways action we went through COULD be bringing in the lows of the year. I don't know that we continue downward past October UNLESS, yet again, we head into a recession.
I expect another slow day. I did snag my profit trade yesterday and just quickly left. Obviously I could have doubled my profit if I stuck around for the rest of the day, but I can't say I regret it. Got to clean my house up pretty well.