Trends and Movements Heading into the Week
Greetings! Had a great time skiing up in Vermont, was nice to take a brief pause away from the market and enjoy the whole reason I trade for a living (more free time and flexibility).
I'm back, and be prepared for a bit of a longer video as I catch things up.
Trends;
In terms of trends, we ran down along the 30m and 1hr trends to get here. While the 2hr was in a lower low, we've run well outside of any 2hr funnel, and we have also violated the 3hr/4hr/6hr higher low trends. While I had said last week I expected this, I think we now need to do some correcting before we can head too much lower.
We've currently broke above a lower high 30m, and I foresee us moving to a 1hr uptrend that will also be a lower high. I'll be looking for an initial movement down from this uptrend signal, and may short briefly there, but ultimately I think we will break above that briefly to get a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend, before we finish a move back down.
Price Target;
My longer term price target of 3913 is still my expectation. It does appear that the resistance line along all the rallies of 2022 that we broke past, may have become a downsloping support line. If we are heading for 3913, and that slope continues to act as support, it appears we will get to 3913 at around March 14th (ish).
From 3913, I could build up potential movements for either direction, so I won't provide either one, since that doesn't really give any real guidance.
Economic Data;
There is some housing and manufacturing data, as well as some overall economy data this week, but I don't know that any of it will be groundbreaking and since shockwaves through the market. As usual, the jobs data on Thursday will be watched, and there are several FOMC members giving speeches on Friday.
Earnings;
There are a few notable retailers this week, such as Target, Costco, and Lowes. I expect Lowes to be doing well, based on the same reasons I expected Home Depot to do well (I go into detail in the video again on this). I do think that the sentiment of Target and Costco could ripple through the market, as if they are struggling it may appear or give cause to think the general economy is weakening. Otherwise, there is Broadcom and SalesForce and some other decent sized companies this week, although I believe this week will mostly finish up Earnings season for us.
My overall sentiment into today (from 3998 where we are now);
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Maybe slightly bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan! I'm going to mark this as "Short" because of my continued expectation we hit 3913, even if the short term I expect some potential upside.
I'm back, and be prepared for a bit of a longer video as I catch things up.
Trends;
In terms of trends, we ran down along the 30m and 1hr trends to get here. While the 2hr was in a lower low, we've run well outside of any 2hr funnel, and we have also violated the 3hr/4hr/6hr higher low trends. While I had said last week I expected this, I think we now need to do some correcting before we can head too much lower.
We've currently broke above a lower high 30m, and I foresee us moving to a 1hr uptrend that will also be a lower high. I'll be looking for an initial movement down from this uptrend signal, and may short briefly there, but ultimately I think we will break above that briefly to get a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend, before we finish a move back down.
Price Target;
My longer term price target of 3913 is still my expectation. It does appear that the resistance line along all the rallies of 2022 that we broke past, may have become a downsloping support line. If we are heading for 3913, and that slope continues to act as support, it appears we will get to 3913 at around March 14th (ish).
From 3913, I could build up potential movements for either direction, so I won't provide either one, since that doesn't really give any real guidance.
Economic Data;
There is some housing and manufacturing data, as well as some overall economy data this week, but I don't know that any of it will be groundbreaking and since shockwaves through the market. As usual, the jobs data on Thursday will be watched, and there are several FOMC members giving speeches on Friday.
Earnings;
There are a few notable retailers this week, such as Target, Costco, and Lowes. I expect Lowes to be doing well, based on the same reasons I expected Home Depot to do well (I go into detail in the video again on this). I do think that the sentiment of Target and Costco could ripple through the market, as if they are struggling it may appear or give cause to think the general economy is weakening. Otherwise, there is Broadcom and SalesForce and some other decent sized companies this week, although I believe this week will mostly finish up Earnings season for us.
My overall sentiment into today (from 3998 where we are now);
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Maybe slightly bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan! I'm going to mark this as "Short" because of my continued expectation we hit 3913, even if the short term I expect some potential upside.
Comment:
1hr Uptrend is hitting here at 3999. Has to stick it out another 30m to hold it
Comment:
I've gone short for a short term potential at 4013. Looking to cash out if it gets down around 3990 for $1000, not expecting too much more then that
Comment:
Cashed out. Just shy of $1000.
Gonna sit back and watch for a bit now. Had me a bit nervous there, and the 2hr uptrend was signaling but didn't hold
Gonna sit back and watch for a bit now. Had me a bit nervous there, and the 2hr uptrend was signaling but didn't hold