Trends all Going Up; Things to watch for continuation
I'll be watching for a bit of a whipsaw day.
On the Trend side of that, I say this because in trading trends for a while, I rarely see all the 12-Hour and under able to go in the same direction for very long. I know it seems counter intuitive, but it would almost be better for at least the 1-Hour & 30m to flip a reversal, then flip back over. My assumption on why that occurs, is that people see those opposing movements as an entry point, and you get more people to join in on the current direction. It also sizzles down overbought indicators on popular technicals such as RSI and MFI. That being said, I wouldn't blame anyone for going long after the very healthy push we had yesterday. It didn't quite have the volume that would give me warm and fuzzies, but it wasn't that bad.
I'll be watching for that Daily to potentially ping an uptrend this week, and see if it maintains.
On the economic side of things, I believe the reason for the whipsaw will be based around Tesla and then to a lesser degree, Netflix.
Overall Tesla is having issues, and that isn't to say it can't be a profitable investment, but is it the best bang for an investors buck right now? I don't think so. I see people selling off some Tesla stock as the future of that company becomes a bit more uncertain given supply material issues, China lockdown, and Elon Musk's behavior and political distractions. I think that sell of puts us into a brief negative, but then I think a lot of those investors just put their money in other companies, and it brings us back up. The drop in initial price may even make people feel more comfortable on investing in Tesla, but since they don't report until AMC, I see the initial speculation being potentially down as most believe they will miss expectations.
As for Netflix, I mean, I don't invest in that company, but I read the report after the close, and they missed on Earnings even if they beat on Revenue, and had almost a million subscribers lost. I didn't feel their guidance was that solid in how they are turning that around other than attempting to crackdown on password sharing. It isn't that they can't continue to rally here, I just don't know why one would consider that a big investment move with other more capable companies coming in better priced and better positioned for things ahead. So I also see that taking us negative just to regain the losses as investors take money from one pocket and put it into another. The reentry of that investment money could easily spur others to buy in, and send us a little bit higher than we had as an overnight high at 3964.
The only major Earnings to watch this morning is Abbot Labs. Other earnings won't have as much of an impact on the overall index, though they could steal funds away from poor Earnings of more weighted companies.
I remain neutral in my sentiment now. I will go Bullish if we surpass and hold around 4020. I will regain a bearish sentiment if we hop down past 3880.
Double check your risk management today, and be wary of the Sell the Rip mentality on this rally until we see some serious volume showing dedication to this growth.
On the Trend side of that, I say this because in trading trends for a while, I rarely see all the 12-Hour and under able to go in the same direction for very long. I know it seems counter intuitive, but it would almost be better for at least the 1-Hour & 30m to flip a reversal, then flip back over. My assumption on why that occurs, is that people see those opposing movements as an entry point, and you get more people to join in on the current direction. It also sizzles down overbought indicators on popular technicals such as RSI and MFI. That being said, I wouldn't blame anyone for going long after the very healthy push we had yesterday. It didn't quite have the volume that would give me warm and fuzzies, but it wasn't that bad.
I'll be watching for that Daily to potentially ping an uptrend this week, and see if it maintains.
On the economic side of things, I believe the reason for the whipsaw will be based around Tesla and then to a lesser degree, Netflix.
Overall Tesla is having issues, and that isn't to say it can't be a profitable investment, but is it the best bang for an investors buck right now? I don't think so. I see people selling off some Tesla stock as the future of that company becomes a bit more uncertain given supply material issues, China lockdown, and Elon Musk's behavior and political distractions. I think that sell of puts us into a brief negative, but then I think a lot of those investors just put their money in other companies, and it brings us back up. The drop in initial price may even make people feel more comfortable on investing in Tesla, but since they don't report until AMC, I see the initial speculation being potentially down as most believe they will miss expectations.
As for Netflix, I mean, I don't invest in that company, but I read the report after the close, and they missed on Earnings even if they beat on Revenue, and had almost a million subscribers lost. I didn't feel their guidance was that solid in how they are turning that around other than attempting to crackdown on password sharing. It isn't that they can't continue to rally here, I just don't know why one would consider that a big investment move with other more capable companies coming in better priced and better positioned for things ahead. So I also see that taking us negative just to regain the losses as investors take money from one pocket and put it into another. The reentry of that investment money could easily spur others to buy in, and send us a little bit higher than we had as an overnight high at 3964.
The only major Earnings to watch this morning is Abbot Labs. Other earnings won't have as much of an impact on the overall index, though they could steal funds away from poor Earnings of more weighted companies.
I remain neutral in my sentiment now. I will go Bullish if we surpass and hold around 4020. I will regain a bearish sentiment if we hop down past 3880.
Double check your risk management today, and be wary of the Sell the Rip mentality on this rally until we see some serious volume showing dedication to this growth.
Comment:
In the immediate future here, we got our 30m downtrend signal at 3939. Hadn't even realized when I was doing my first assessment. On this short term outlook, I'd look for the price to continue climbing if it gets over 3947 for the time being.
Comment:
I'm seeing News stories that Abbot beat Earnings and Revenue but stocks are dropping. The Earnings report hasn't seemed to update for me, so I can't verify this. Possibly the future guidance is not desirable and is causing the drop.
Comment:
The 1-Hour has been flashing, but failing. If it holds, it would actually bring a better potential entry point for going upward. If it fails to hold, I'd be looking to see what happens above 3940, especially around 3947 at this point as a possible entry.
Comment:
Just one of the things I watch to try and see if a buy the dip or sell the rip persona is in the market, is the Long/Short positions with Daily FX. Just today, 17% growth in short positions and a decline of 13% in long positions. Not that I see that as some major predictor, but it does show an overall sentiment in the market confidence.
Comment:
Lowest Volume open since July 8th. Not a full price predictor, and July 8th didn't have Earnings season to cause friction, but that was indeed a whipsaw day.
Trade active:
Went long at 3942
Trade closed manually:
Closed for profit at 3969.5. Not bad, makes up for sitting out yesterday and gets me my income for today and yesterday.
Comment:
Checked on that initial dip and Netflix and Tesla. Sure enough, they both went back to zero or negative, respectfully. I'm not shocked to see people trying to snag Tesla at a bottom, though I'm not sure the gain it has will hold on for the remainder of the day. I am a bit surprised to see Netflix recover. I guess maybe the cheaper ad ridden version of Netflix has investors feeling positive about the company. I suppose that is a decent plan to prepare for a possible recession and to stop losing subscribers. Again, I have no skin in the game with that stock, I just think other companies look a lot more attractive.
I mean, Abbot Labs is negative and I'd rather toss my money in that company as their guidance just seems more stable and recession proof than Netflix.
I mean, Abbot Labs is negative and I'd rather toss my money in that company as their guidance just seems more stable and recession proof than Netflix.
Comment:
Drats... I literally sat over the button to go in at 3969 long again, but was eating lunch. Could have paid for my lunch at the very least... hah
Comment:
I really sense a bit of a reversal coming, even if it is just a 20 point drop, but... with this market lately, I'll be staying out. Low volume melt movement seems to be the norm lately, and that is just dangerous to trade in and try to catch a falling knife (or rising knife?)
Comment:
🤦♂️ lol.... I knew I could smell it. No regrets though. Risk management is always more important
Comment:
Google just announced they too are slowing on hiring. Careful, this is what plummeted the market the other day when Apple made the same announcement.
Comment:
I took a quick short trade on the small rebound at 3960 but sold it off at 3950. Was just meant as a scalp (5m downtrend to 5m uptrend lines). For me to feel like I want to go lower I want to see some other higher trends start to reverse.
Comment:
Took a short at 3942 to keep carrying the downtrend. See if it reverses.
Trade closed manually:
Took the L on that one at 3948. Likely a bit too early on that move. Need a descending downward trend... the last downtrend movement of the 15m was higher than this 15m... if the 30m shows up here however, it would show a downward trajectory and potentially better readings to the downside.
Comment:
This 30m downtrend is everything right now from a trend point of trading. If it hits withoutnanother surge up, it'll be a descending trend and signal a potential fall off. I'm going to check back in at 14:30 EST and see what it has for us
Comment:
Went long, 3954. Might turn into lunch money.
Trade closed manually:
Sold it at 3961. Normally I would hold it longer, but I'm just going to close things out for the day.
Comment:
Not a bad day. I was correct on the price action, though incorrect as Netflix kept the gains.
We smacked up on some downtrend line I had drawn from April that I forgot about. Volume increased today also.
As for tomorrow... I suppose it will depend on how Tesla reports here shortly. Any gain up I feel is just a prep for a reverse at this point. Not sure about a reverse to new lows, but most likely down to say... 3800 or so.
Tune in next time! 😁
We smacked up on some downtrend line I had drawn from April that I forgot about. Volume increased today also.
As for tomorrow... I suppose it will depend on how Tesla reports here shortly. Any gain up I feel is just a prep for a reverse at this point. Not sure about a reverse to new lows, but most likely down to say... 3800 or so.
Tune in next time! 😁
I will begin to lean bearish neutral if we go below 3921, though I won't commit to a bearish mentality until we get below 3880, in so much that we will hit that much needed 12-Hour Downtrend signal that allows us a new 12-Hour Uptrend signal. Tracking trends in this manner has some base in the Wave Theory that is popular, but uses a different calculation.
I would go full on bullish if we can get two higher Daily trend signals and feel that we are completely out of the pending doom then.