Uptrend beginning to dissolve; Trends into 4/5/2023

So we got some initial down movement yesterday that finally challenged this massive upward movements on low volume the last few days. This provided a 30m/1hr/2hr downtrend. I'd expect the price action to recover briefly from here even if we are heading lower. It should be noted that yesterday's down movement was high in volume either.

JOLTs data came in below expectations, and now today, so did ADP NonFarm payrolls. This shows the job market is weakening. With the market falling yesterday, it seems that everyone has moved past the inflation narrative and onto the concern of a looming recession. A recession is NOT priced into the market at this point, unless you theorize that it was priced in last year and now won't be considered in the market at all.

The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4148 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4138 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

I mentioned in the video, and it should be noted at 4163ish started to signal a Daily Uptrend on the ESM.

The Long Position;
I think the market could be poised to run back up at least to 4150-4160 range. If I see that momentum at the open or near it, I may jump in briefly just to make money.

The Short Position;
With such an overheated market and such bearish sentiment, I could see there being few buyers to get behind the upward movement, and if we get a low volume upward movement topped with a 30m or 1hr uptrend, I may use that as a position to run short. Additionally, the down momentum of yesterday could continue, at least to a 3hr or 4hr downtrend. Either of those momentums will be something I'd like to try and grab.

Either position is difficult to find the entry point for due to the relatively low volume over the past week. Typically price action + volume shows price direction. We've just lacked real volume lately even with major price moves.

Economic Data;
We still have ISM and Oil Inventories today. However, ADP NonFarm Payrolls showed a steep decline and below expectations by a sizeable amount.

My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral

Comment:

Just FYI Cleveland Fed President Mester is being interviewed. Same narrative about this price cuts that are expected by the market. Definitely not foreseeing any price cuts this year, and likely at least a tiny more interest rate increase before holding. No price cuts are on any member of the FOMC's agenda this year.

For reference, Mester does tend to be more Hawkish than other members of the FOMC.

Comment:

Usual extremely low volume open.

Comment:

Not sure the market knows what to do with the info just yet... but ISM data came in below expectations, but still above 50 (above 50 means growth, below 50 means a decline). So basically the economy grew, but less than expected.

Comment:

It took a direction finally.
Additionally, Crude Inventories were lower than expected. This would implicate that Crude prices will likely continue to rise