Trends maxed to the downside; However direction unclear
I don't have as much confidence in a direction today as I've had the last few days, sorry. No overnight trades for me and while I want to go Long here, I'm not so sure this is the area I want to try for a long position. Ultimately, with the money I've made the last 3 days, I think it might be a good day to sit out for me unless I see something of tremendous opportunity.
I do have a Buy signal on the MACD Momentum chart, but that is for this current day, which means it is a signal in development and not for sure. If it holds and we have a down day, then I may buy in at the close of the session for tomorrow, but that doesn't help me today.
Overall, at best assessment, I think we have a whipsaw day and end right around +\- 10 or even zero. I'd say that might happen without much movement, but we do have jobless claims in the next hour, so I expect some market reaction on that initially.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3919 Downtrend (3/16/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I think we are currently in a potential Long position at 3910, I just don't feel the ends justify the risk, as I see it pulling back up at least above the 30m trend line which is only like 3918.
The Short Position;
For me to decide I want to go short, I'd have to see a 30m/1hr/2hr lower high uptrend mark. I don't know that the 30m will give us that if we rally from here, and the 1hr has to come in below 3948. Not sure that happens this morning without a big push down first.
Economic Data;
Jobless data comes out. As well as some building permits and Philly Manufacturing Data. Jobless data is likely the biggest thing unless something shocks outside of expectations. I'll be interested to see where the 8:30 movement takes us.
My overall sentiment (from 3912);
Shorter Term - Hint of Bullish/Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Basically the market is either looking to turn trends around to head further up, or consolidating and trying to catch a few lower timeframe trends to take this market further down. I know that doesn't help with a direction from today, but that is my sentiment.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this Long, as I think we jump back up to above 3920 from this 3912 range, and that if we end with a low day that I think tomorrow is a rally day.
I do have a Buy signal on the MACD Momentum chart, but that is for this current day, which means it is a signal in development and not for sure. If it holds and we have a down day, then I may buy in at the close of the session for tomorrow, but that doesn't help me today.
Overall, at best assessment, I think we have a whipsaw day and end right around +\- 10 or even zero. I'd say that might happen without much movement, but we do have jobless claims in the next hour, so I expect some market reaction on that initially.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3919 Downtrend (3/16/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I think we are currently in a potential Long position at 3910, I just don't feel the ends justify the risk, as I see it pulling back up at least above the 30m trend line which is only like 3918.
The Short Position;
For me to decide I want to go short, I'd have to see a 30m/1hr/2hr lower high uptrend mark. I don't know that the 30m will give us that if we rally from here, and the 1hr has to come in below 3948. Not sure that happens this morning without a big push down first.
Economic Data;
Jobless data comes out. As well as some building permits and Philly Manufacturing Data. Jobless data is likely the biggest thing unless something shocks outside of expectations. I'll be interested to see where the 8:30 movement takes us.
My overall sentiment (from 3912);
Shorter Term - Hint of Bullish/Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Basically the market is either looking to turn trends around to head further up, or consolidating and trying to catch a few lower timeframe trends to take this market further down. I know that doesn't help with a direction from today, but that is my sentiment.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this Long, as I think we jump back up to above 3920 from this 3912 range, and that if we end with a low day that I think tomorrow is a rally day.
Comment:
And we've gotten back above that 3920 level. So now I'm really unsure if we go up or down from here.
Comment:
I think my trade today may be shorting Gold. It's maxed trends to the Uptrend, the 4hr MACD Momentum in the last bar said it was beginning a downtrend (4hr price divergence) and we have even gotten higher than that.
I may be leaving the S&P alone and running a short there once I see a good entry point.
I may be leaving the S&P alone and running a short there once I see a good entry point.
Comment:
Just realized the ECB rate decision is today also. That will be interesting as it is the first rate decision after the bank crisis came to light.
Comment:
Jobs continue to surprise to the downside. FYI, I am short Gold at 1935
Comment:
ECB still applied their rate hike. I'd expect the market won't take that news well and now will expect the FOMC to do a rate hike as well.
Comment:
I exited my gold trade at $1000... back to our regularly scheduled program of the S&P.
Comment:
Both the 30m and 1hr are signaling here at the 3954+ level. Needs to hold 51 more minutes though, will be a long hour for those in a short trade
Comment:
So, some info for your decision making... The 3hr/4hr/6hr are descending lines all right around 3960 if you don't separate the contracts. If you look at only the ESM contracts, that level is at 4000
Comment:
On the ESM contract, we are hitting against the Daily Downtrend ascending (higher low) line at 3960... so
Comment:
Almost a near perfect 1hr funnel if I just moved the higher low to the higher high uptrend here.
Comment:
Well, I clearly shouldn't have been messing around with gold and should have gone Long when things were near 3900. That call has come to pass.
We've not hit a 2hr lower high uptrend mark at 3987.
I think this may be the top of this brief rally and I'll be looking at potentially going short here if momentum appears to be fading.
We've not hit a 2hr lower high uptrend mark at 3987.
I think this may be the top of this brief rally and I'll be looking at potentially going short here if momentum appears to be fading.
Comment:
Went short at 3997. I had it set for 4000, but it kept struggling for that final push, so I jumped in when I saw it beginning to fizzle out. See where it lands at the end of the day.