Trends opening up to the down; Market still appears dead
So I'm glad I didn't jump into 4160 as a short near the end of yesterday, as it gave me the chance to get in short at 4167 this morning.
We've gotten a lower high and a higher low (just hit) for the 30m trend. That leaves me with some skeptic optimism that the market will continue to fall (is optimism the right word?) and we can discount the 30m and look for the 1hr downtrend. We actually HAD the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr downtrends all coming in yesterday as lower lows, and then we started the rebound and lost all of them but the 30m. All in all, I still think the trends are showing a lack in upward movement, and as I watch this playout it continues to appear to be a head and shoulder formation in price action.
The trends into today are (I updated the 30m since the video);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/11/2023) higher Low
1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
We've had issues getting below the 6hr higher low ascending trendline. We will meet this line again around 4133. Additionally, we've get to break down below the newly minted 30m higher low downtrend of 4146, and I'd then also be looking to make sure that when the 1hr and on hit a downtrend, that they are lower lows. In order to get much lower, we will need to violate the 6hr and 12hr trendlines so there is that also.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I already felt confident about 4160 yesterday, but didn't want to hold the trade overnight. This morning, an even better position at 4167 presented itself with a lower high 30m entry point. If somehow I get stopped out because we head back up, I'd be looking for another movement down below the current 30m ascending bar causing a support level, or the 3hr descending line is still around 4150 and we have failed to remain above that trendline as well.
Economic Data;
Jobs and PPI data today. I won't speculate how it will be traded though, except if PPI surprises to the upside.
Earnings;
No major earnings today. Disney was yesterday as the big mover for the week. They missed earnings, that could bleed into today.
My sentiment today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
We've gotten a lower high and a higher low (just hit) for the 30m trend. That leaves me with some skeptic optimism that the market will continue to fall (is optimism the right word?) and we can discount the 30m and look for the 1hr downtrend. We actually HAD the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr downtrends all coming in yesterday as lower lows, and then we started the rebound and lost all of them but the 30m. All in all, I still think the trends are showing a lack in upward movement, and as I watch this playout it continues to appear to be a head and shoulder formation in price action.
The trends into today are (I updated the 30m since the video);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/11/2023) higher Low
1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
We've had issues getting below the 6hr higher low ascending trendline. We will meet this line again around 4133. Additionally, we've get to break down below the newly minted 30m higher low downtrend of 4146, and I'd then also be looking to make sure that when the 1hr and on hit a downtrend, that they are lower lows. In order to get much lower, we will need to violate the 6hr and 12hr trendlines so there is that also.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I already felt confident about 4160 yesterday, but didn't want to hold the trade overnight. This morning, an even better position at 4167 presented itself with a lower high 30m entry point. If somehow I get stopped out because we head back up, I'd be looking for another movement down below the current 30m ascending bar causing a support level, or the 3hr descending line is still around 4150 and we have failed to remain above that trendline as well.
Economic Data;
Jobs and PPI data today. I won't speculate how it will be traded though, except if PPI surprises to the upside.
Earnings;
No major earnings today. Disney was yesterday as the big mover for the week. They missed earnings, that could bleed into today.
My sentiment today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Comment:
I was just profit stopped at 4157... where did this low volume pop come from? Maybe some data was leaked?
Comment:
I definitely have a feeling there was a stop loss hunt there with the expectation the market will go lower. Pretty sure I just got hunted. I've at least made my $500 quota, so I can be patient with my next entry... but going to be upsetting if this dips suddenly and I'm left far behind.
Comment:
PPI came in just under expectations, so it appears inflation begins to cool, though extremely slowly. That being said, PPI is the least favored data to evaluate for inflation, it just can show potential movement coming.
Jobs data looks to be surprising to the higher side. Jobless claims and Initial Jobless claims all came in above expectations.
So, the problem will be in you can fit any narrative you want with this information.
Jobs data looks to be surprising to the higher side. Jobless claims and Initial Jobless claims all came in above expectations.
So, the problem will be in you can fit any narrative you want with this information.
Comment:
1hr is showing up, but we are about 4 points too high for a lower low and at risk of a higher low without a bit more of a nudge down.
I was overly annoyed about getting stopped out and have not gone back into the market today. I really shouldn't complain too much though, as I'm only a couple hundred from making my weekly target
I was overly annoyed about getting stopped out and have not gone back into the market today. I really shouldn't complain too much though, as I'm only a couple hundred from making my weekly target
Comment:
1hr lower low has stuck. 2hr Downtrend has not signaled yet, and needs to be below 4129 (which we already are and it hasn't shown. It is possible that the 3hr will hit higher than the 2hr, as the 3hr uptrend was days before the 2hr came in the last spike up.
Comment:
2hr downtrend is signaling at 4124.25, needs to hold below that for 15 minutes if it is going to signal. Thus far we've been unable to move with purpose below the 1hr downtrend mark.
Comment:
Unless we have a late day dip, it appears that yet again we will have failed to fall below the 6hr trendline.
We have also failed to really remain above the 3hr trendline.. which is around 4150. Perhaps these levels are going to come to a breaking point.
We have also failed to really remain above the 3hr trendline.. which is around 4150. Perhaps these levels are going to come to a breaking point.
Comment:
I honestly might end up trading on the Nasdaq and going short. Trends are maxed to the upside there, so every day it has been doing a 30m up and 30m down (and back up, etc) in order to make higher levels, but it is excessively exhausted to the upside, the RSI and MFI are beginning to diverge, and I won't have to worry about the YM recovering as it falls to stop the drop like I will with the S&P.