Trends maxing to the Uptrends; And why Oil is skyrocketing?
So I move it during the video to show the decline in upward trajectory, but the Daily Uptrend has signaled, still a higher high, though less upward movement. The caveat to that is that the ES! contract got the Daily, NOT the ESM. However, the ESM doesn't have a previous Daily Uptrend connection to go off of, because it doesn't have the history to draw from (just like it doesn't have a weekly signal at all to draw from), so I think with this upward movement the divergence between the two is going to mitigate here quickly. I could see the potential for us to move and get a ESM Daily Uptrend, but currently I'm going to be watching to see if this rally finally fades, to at least drop back and correct the 6hr lower high violation around 4040.
What could really disperse this upward movement is the skyrocketing price of crude oil. If you're unaware, OPEC+ just advised they will be cutting production, apparently because the US who promised to restore the SPR, has now stated they will not be restoring the SPR this year. If that oil price begins to rise, while Oil only goes into Headline Inflation data and not Core Inflation data, it is always apparent how it bleeds into other areas and there will likely gain some concern that the expected rate cuts (which I don't agree are happening, but the market seems to believe we are going to have), are no longer coming and sustainment of this rally will dwindle away (except maybe some recovery in the Energy Sector).
All that said, the trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4098 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I expect an initial downward move, however, if that downward momentum dwindles or the oil saga is resolved politically, I expect a potential recovery to at least the 4140+ level. This is my less likely scenario and I may not trade this.
The Short Position;
With us maxed to the upside and potential of rising gas prices, and sentiment dwindling, I am looking to ensure that the rally is fading and get into a downward trending move. I was surprised to see us come back up to neutral this morning already, and may just watch the open to see how prices react once the US Trading Day opens up. Currently the Nasdaq is coming down but the Dow Jones is halting the deepening of losses.
Economic Data;
Some PMI data could be important today.
Geopolitical;
Again, I'd watch this Oil story unfold. Additionally, with new additions to NATO, things could escalate with Russia and Western Nations in addition to the other growing geopolitical issues between the US and Asia already happening.
My Long term assessment has started to turn a bit more bullish however, in that we got two higher high Uptrends in a row. If we fall hard from this point, than I will be watching the area of 3917 very closely to see if we get a lower low on the Daily as things progress.
It should be noted that April is historically the second best month of the S&P.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
What could really disperse this upward movement is the skyrocketing price of crude oil. If you're unaware, OPEC+ just advised they will be cutting production, apparently because the US who promised to restore the SPR, has now stated they will not be restoring the SPR this year. If that oil price begins to rise, while Oil only goes into Headline Inflation data and not Core Inflation data, it is always apparent how it bleeds into other areas and there will likely gain some concern that the expected rate cuts (which I don't agree are happening, but the market seems to believe we are going to have), are no longer coming and sustainment of this rally will dwindle away (except maybe some recovery in the Energy Sector).
All that said, the trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4098 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I expect an initial downward move, however, if that downward momentum dwindles or the oil saga is resolved politically, I expect a potential recovery to at least the 4140+ level. This is my less likely scenario and I may not trade this.
The Short Position;
With us maxed to the upside and potential of rising gas prices, and sentiment dwindling, I am looking to ensure that the rally is fading and get into a downward trending move. I was surprised to see us come back up to neutral this morning already, and may just watch the open to see how prices react once the US Trading Day opens up. Currently the Nasdaq is coming down but the Dow Jones is halting the deepening of losses.
Economic Data;
Some PMI data could be important today.
Geopolitical;
Again, I'd watch this Oil story unfold. Additionally, with new additions to NATO, things could escalate with Russia and Western Nations in addition to the other growing geopolitical issues between the US and Asia already happening.
My Long term assessment has started to turn a bit more bullish however, in that we got two higher high Uptrends in a row. If we fall hard from this point, than I will be watching the area of 3917 very closely to see if we get a lower low on the Daily as things progress.
It should be noted that April is historically the second best month of the S&P.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
Comment:
If you aren't aware, Fed Bullard is being interviewed on Bloomberg Markets Live
Comment:
Inflationary concerns are rising and people are......... buying up more stocks? I just don't understand the market this past week at all.
Comment:
I'm going to be taking today off. Have to head out to help a friend today, and the market is running amuck, so not even going to bother with it today.