Trends could clear downward movement to at least 4070ish
So I went Long yesterday like I said I would at 4101 (3/4hr downtrends), and then ultimately reversed the position at 4122 (1hr Uptrend). I'm currently holding that trade and looking for it to make a move down to the 6hr downtrend at least.
The S&P has really left me underwhelmed this week, and I'd like to try and make a bit more profit from it if possible as I've had to rely on other areas to subsidize my earnings on these specific trades, and I usually look at side trades as a "bonus" rather than my standard income.
The reason for the recent drop (which hasn't been significant yet) is that the labor market is weakening and now there is concern we could head into a recession. So finally people are trading bad news as bad news again (for now).
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4117 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4122 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Potentially if we head down to get that 6hr downtrend there may be room for a technical bounce up before the close. Additionally, I suppose if we begin to shoot upward past 4125, I could see us getting back up to a 2/3/4hr uptrend, as it would pave the way for lower lows to begin forming. Not my most likely scenario at the moment.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I saw the Uptrend at 8am EST at 4122 as the highpoint of the day, and look to see the down momentum continue to a 6hr downtrend at least. The 6hr trend was violated and I can see it calling for a correct.
Economic Data;
It's all out there, jobs data shows the labor market is beginning to weaken. While some week over week numbers were less than the previous week, all measures were worse than expected and the continuing jobless claims went up overall.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
The S&P has really left me underwhelmed this week, and I'd like to try and make a bit more profit from it if possible as I've had to rely on other areas to subsidize my earnings on these specific trades, and I usually look at side trades as a "bonus" rather than my standard income.
The reason for the recent drop (which hasn't been significant yet) is that the labor market is weakening and now there is concern we could head into a recession. So finally people are trading bad news as bad news again (for now).
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4117 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4122 Uptrend (4/06/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4126 Downtrend (4/04/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4101 Downtrend (4/5/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4139 Uptrend* (3/31/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Potentially if we head down to get that 6hr downtrend there may be room for a technical bounce up before the close. Additionally, I suppose if we begin to shoot upward past 4125, I could see us getting back up to a 2/3/4hr uptrend, as it would pave the way for lower lows to begin forming. Not my most likely scenario at the moment.
The Short Position;
I'm in it. I saw the Uptrend at 8am EST at 4122 as the highpoint of the day, and look to see the down momentum continue to a 6hr downtrend at least. The 6hr trend was violated and I can see it calling for a correct.
Economic Data;
It's all out there, jobs data shows the labor market is beginning to weaken. While some week over week numbers were less than the previous week, all measures were worse than expected and the continuing jobless claims went up overall.
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Comment:
Additionally... just FYI the Daily is forming a MACD Momentum Sell Signal today. It hasn't completely formed. The issue might be the sell signal comes on down movement, so it doesn't provide a lot of guidance.
Comment:
Oh I also wanted to add... none of this down movement has come with much volume... so I look at it as skeptically as I did at the upward movement we had on low volume also.
Comment:
Here we are at 4100, this is definitely going to be the do or die zone for the day
Comment:
We officially have our first lower low 30m downtrend in quite some time. The 1hr is also here at a lower low, but has to stick around for another 20 minutes
Comment:
The first 10 minutes was below average volume, (typically you see 50k first 5 minutes, 40k, second 5, and 30k third 5)... but interestingly enough, the second 5 minutes was higher in volume than the first.
Comment:
So... the 6hr downtrend is actually signaling here already. It hasn't settled and won't close out until 13:00 EST, but I am really surprised to see it signaling so high (4099). Considering the 3hr and 4hr just signaled at 4101. Could make me jump out of my trade early, to be honest. Be interesting to see where we end up in a few hours here