Greetings. So I tried a video today, didn't feel much like typing. If you don't feel like watching it, than just briefly, all of the patterns are sitting at the same as before. I briefly mentioned the 15m trend just for guidance yesterday, that already flipped itself twice. So yeah, usually anything 15m and below is better used as a reversal entry point than a continuation of trend. I also really briefly touched on right angle triangles, but realize I use them for guidance, not as trading indicators. Also, to point out, my bars are not green for up and red for down in the video. Hollow bars are up, and solid bars are down, because my bars are color coded by trend, green for an uptrend, yellow for neutral, and red for downtrend (with bright green and bright red as "strong trend readings".)
Uptrends;
1-Hour / 30m - 3815
12-Hour - 3927
Downtrends;
2-Hour - 3832
3-Hour - 3824
4-Hour - 3812
6-Hour - 3770
And just for reference, the big downtrends of the Daily and Weekly started here
Daily - 4249 - Started on April 22nd
Weekly - 4340 - Started on the week of February 14th
In terms of Economic Data today, there is some manufacturing data, but I'm not sure that will really do much for the market. The PCE came in yesterday, as I said before, .1 better both in month of month and year over year than expected, but that is still really awful. To put it in context, Month over Month PCE (which gauges inflation) stayed the same, and year over year, it was still 4.7%. That is some awfully high numbers, even if better than expected. Also, personal spending was down .2% lower than expected to .2%. Jobless claims was really relatively the same, with 3000 more people filing unemployment than the previous report, but when you're talking about 230,000, I'm not sure that is the "cooling off" the Fed wants to see.
All that, meaning most likely the Fed is hiking 75 bps in July, which is already priced into the market.
Overall still a bearish perspective from me, although we could just go sideways if the 6-Hour trend can't start closing below 3770. For me to safely see any bullish momentum, I want to see it get up past 3832, because that 2-Hour Trend is pretty damn strong at this point.
I would trade in short at 3813 if the chance arrives (it may not), setting that stop at 3833, looking to take profit at 3770 if it appears to be fizzling out, and if not look for it to fizzle at around 3740 when that 30m downtrend would appear.
If that chance doesn't happen, I'd look to go short below 3770 with a small stop just above and look to take profit at 3750 if it starts to fizzle.
As always, your best trading strategy is your risk management plan. If you don't have that set in stone and typed out, DO IT. And then print it out, laminate it, and put it next to your trading workstation and read it every morning.
As always, this is not official trading or financial advice, and all liability for trading is on you and you alone.
Safe trading fellow traders
Uptrends;
1-Hour / 30m - 3815
12-Hour - 3927
Downtrends;
2-Hour - 3832
3-Hour - 3824
4-Hour - 3812
6-Hour - 3770
And just for reference, the big downtrends of the Daily and Weekly started here
Daily - 4249 - Started on April 22nd
Weekly - 4340 - Started on the week of February 14th
In terms of Economic Data today, there is some manufacturing data, but I'm not sure that will really do much for the market. The PCE came in yesterday, as I said before, .1 better both in month of month and year over year than expected, but that is still really awful. To put it in context, Month over Month PCE (which gauges inflation) stayed the same, and year over year, it was still 4.7%. That is some awfully high numbers, even if better than expected. Also, personal spending was down .2% lower than expected to .2%. Jobless claims was really relatively the same, with 3000 more people filing unemployment than the previous report, but when you're talking about 230,000, I'm not sure that is the "cooling off" the Fed wants to see.
All that, meaning most likely the Fed is hiking 75 bps in July, which is already priced into the market.
Overall still a bearish perspective from me, although we could just go sideways if the 6-Hour trend can't start closing below 3770. For me to safely see any bullish momentum, I want to see it get up past 3832, because that 2-Hour Trend is pretty damn strong at this point.
I would trade in short at 3813 if the chance arrives (it may not), setting that stop at 3833, looking to take profit at 3770 if it appears to be fizzling out, and if not look for it to fizzle at around 3740 when that 30m downtrend would appear.
If that chance doesn't happen, I'd look to go short below 3770 with a small stop just above and look to take profit at 3750 if it starts to fizzle.
As always, your best trading strategy is your risk management plan. If you don't have that set in stone and typed out, DO IT. And then print it out, laminate it, and put it next to your trading workstation and read it every morning.
As always, this is not official trading or financial advice, and all liability for trading is on you and you alone.
Safe trading fellow traders
Comment:
6-Hour trend is toying with us. Closed about 3 points ABOVE the downtrend line. I'd still consider that trend unreliable then at this point. Check it again at 13:00 EST.
Comment:
So, while I said I was not going to trade, I did. I entered the two following trades today. Did anyone follow the advice?
Entered 07:45 EST - Short - 3771
Exited (By Stop) - 08:00 EST - 3770.25
Profit - A whopping $62.50 hah
Entered 10:00 EST - Short - 3814
Exited 10:15 EST - Target Achieved - 3768
Profit - $2300
Ok, ok... now I'm REALLY done for the day. My stance is either wipsaw of a day, or a push to the downside. I'm heading out to go kayaking. Safe trading!
Entered 07:45 EST - Short - 3771
Exited (By Stop) - 08:00 EST - 3770.25
Profit - A whopping $62.50 hah
Entered 10:00 EST - Short - 3814
Exited 10:15 EST - Target Achieved - 3768
Profit - $2300
Ok, ok... now I'm REALLY done for the day. My stance is either wipsaw of a day, or a push to the downside. I'm heading out to go kayaking. Safe trading!
Comment:
Just to add before I leave.
If you are following this movement down past 3770, I'd be prepared to get out with a small profit in case it wipsaws...
My take profit would be either 3745, which if my head math is correct is right about where the 30m downtrend signal would be. If that held and continue, I would use the 1-Hour downtrend signal, which... again just doing head math, is about 3720 I think. Past that, if things went south more than that, I'm not exactly sure where the 12-Hour downtrend signal would begin at... probably close to 3720 also I think doing the math in my head, not much past that. So I'd take profit there also. If it dropped more than that, I'd miss out, but like I've said before, all downtrends in the same direction are unsustainable.
Good luck!
If you are following this movement down past 3770, I'd be prepared to get out with a small profit in case it wipsaws...
My take profit would be either 3745, which if my head math is correct is right about where the 30m downtrend signal would be. If that held and continue, I would use the 1-Hour downtrend signal, which... again just doing head math, is about 3720 I think. Past that, if things went south more than that, I'm not exactly sure where the 12-Hour downtrend signal would begin at... probably close to 3720 also I think doing the math in my head, not much past that. So I'd take profit there also. If it dropped more than that, I'd miss out, but like I've said before, all downtrends in the same direction are unsustainable.
Good luck!