CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soar
So we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain.
Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have.
I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing.
I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract)
30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend
Weekly - None
Economic Data;
As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come!
My sentiment overall is;
WTF... I have nothing else haha
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have.
I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing.
I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract)
30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend
Weekly - None
Economic Data;
As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come!
My sentiment overall is;
WTF... I have nothing else haha
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
Well, We've officially crossed up the 'impossibly steep' 6hr uptrend line, at least on the ES Overlay that merges ESM and ESU contracts together. Mind is absolutely blown.
Comment:
After taking a slight loss two days ago with my 6E contracts basically helping to balance my loss on the ES, I took yesterday off. In watching today, and making new highs for no viable reason I can understand, I will just take this week off and go to my next backpacking trip.
It also sucks I cashed out my 6e contracts, as that is hitting right where I thought it would, even as this ES Rally continues to baffle.
Remember your risk management!
It also sucks I cashed out my 6e contracts, as that is hitting right where I thought it would, even as this ES Rally continues to baffle.
Remember your risk management!
Comment:
Looks like today was just another easy buy the dip day.
Comment:
This is just crazy. There is more momentum in this rally than I can ever trace back on even a Weekly basis. No idea what is driving this level of risk off optimism, but enjoy the rally I suppose. I may just remove myself from trading until whatever this is fizzles off a little.
Comment:
We are a mere 20 points from the highest predicted price point of all analysts got 2023... the jetpack seems to be unlimited in fuel lately.