Short Term Mini Rally Likely; Longterm I'd tread carefully
So, the video is longer than expected, but I did talk about what it is I look for if I'm trying to grab at the peak of a low move to go back upward. Anyways, if you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, here they are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3624 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
We snagged a 12hr Downtrend already. I actually think that adds into the possibility of a reversal more than a continuation of heading is down, as now if we push upward and get a new 12hr uptrend we may just have a higher high, and then the next downtrend would be a higher low.
I almost jumped into a long this morning at the 3580 range. Small regret not doing so, but it just didn't have the signs I wanted at the time. Something to note, yesterday was the first sub 2million trading day in over a month. The last one was 9/9. It wasn't by much, but it does show interest in things going down is slowing.
Ultimately, while it did not come yesterday, I think we need a rally to get that 1hr and 2hr uptrend marks so we can have a lower high to work from. We do have the 3hr lower low downtrend to work with right now as well as the 30m trends, but it bothers me we don't have the 1hr or 2hr, especially when the 2hr was the guiding light on bringing us down from 4000 to 3600.
I'm not sure what helped bring us further down overnight, but I don't see us staying in this negative territory today.
I mention in the video, but I'll put it out here also, I would give caution (I know, I think I always have some "Cautionary Words") regarding holding any positions for the long haul over the remainder of this week. We have serious economic data starting tomorrow, and we have some Earnings beginning tomorrow.
In the video I did talk about the Monthly Uptrend we are about to hit, and if we head lower that may be an important level to watch.
Overall my sentiment is as follows;
Shortest Term - Bullish
Short Term - Neutral
Mid Term - Bullish Neutral
Long Term - Bearish
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3624 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
We snagged a 12hr Downtrend already. I actually think that adds into the possibility of a reversal more than a continuation of heading is down, as now if we push upward and get a new 12hr uptrend we may just have a higher high, and then the next downtrend would be a higher low.
I almost jumped into a long this morning at the 3580 range. Small regret not doing so, but it just didn't have the signs I wanted at the time. Something to note, yesterday was the first sub 2million trading day in over a month. The last one was 9/9. It wasn't by much, but it does show interest in things going down is slowing.
Ultimately, while it did not come yesterday, I think we need a rally to get that 1hr and 2hr uptrend marks so we can have a lower high to work from. We do have the 3hr lower low downtrend to work with right now as well as the 30m trends, but it bothers me we don't have the 1hr or 2hr, especially when the 2hr was the guiding light on bringing us down from 4000 to 3600.
I'm not sure what helped bring us further down overnight, but I don't see us staying in this negative territory today.
I mention in the video, but I'll put it out here also, I would give caution (I know, I think I always have some "Cautionary Words") regarding holding any positions for the long haul over the remainder of this week. We have serious economic data starting tomorrow, and we have some Earnings beginning tomorrow.
In the video I did talk about the Monthly Uptrend we are about to hit, and if we head lower that may be an important level to watch.
Overall my sentiment is as follows;
Shortest Term - Bullish
Short Term - Neutral
Mid Term - Bullish Neutral
Long Term - Bearish
Comment:
Went short, just for a brief trade of trying to snag 10 points at 3626. If it hits around 3616 I may just bail out so I can meet my daily.
Comment:
Redbook Data came in. Drop of 4% in retail sales. I could see that making an impact on the consumer discretionary type stocks
Comment:
Cashed out that trade at 3614. Gives me just over my $500 daily goal. I can now kinda sit and wait to see what happens without any pressure. I still see us heading into positive territory here shortly being more likely than dropping... but the fact we were so close to our overall lows overnight gives me some concern we revisit those lows before a real rally.
Comment:
Mmmm I don't know I want to go for it, but I am getting a buy signal on the 5m. This is when the trend goes (in this case, from uptrend to strong uptrend) but did so on a backwards movement (so price index is decreasing but giving a stronger uptrend signal). I've never been able to figure out why my script does this, however, I have noticed a pretty decent trend in that when this happens, the price almost always goes back to at least the area it reversed from (so in this case, 3627).
I'm just not a fan of trading off the 5m timeframe.
I'm just not a fan of trading off the 5m timeframe.
Comment:
Bleh, I'm gonna go long at 3604 going into the open
Comment:
Well............. damn. I suppose we see what happens overall today. I should have trusted my gut that we were going to come back down here before we went back up to give a small rally another shot.
Comment:
On that note, at the bottom here, there we got that increase in volume, RSI oversold, and signal I had mentioned when trying to "catch the knife" using a 3200 tick chart. I wouldn't trade using that unless you think overall the market should turn for other reasons on top of it.
Comment:
In spite of being annoyed I jumped the gun in catching the knife, here we are... 5m is on an uptrend. Next up, 15m
Comment:
15m Needs to settle in at above 3623 and hold an uptrend signal, and it also will be in an uptrend
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And the lil bastage stopped me out with a $250 gain at 3610.....
Comment:
In spite of my better judgement that things would head back up, I did not go for round 2 at 3605. I'm sitting at just under $1k for the day, I may just take a break for a little
Comment:
15m Uptrend signal is here, puts that 15m into an uptrend.
Comment:
30m Uptrend Signal has hit. Might expect some cooling for a moment after that one
Comment:
There is the 1hr uptrend, as expected.
Comment:
Looks like that lower high 1hr Uptrend mark is giving some issues. Having really missed the bell on this one (I absolutely should have gotten in at 3580ish and ran up to likely around 3640) I might just take what I made today and call it a day. I mean, I'm not going to complain about making $1000... but it definitely should have been a $3000 day.
As I decide to exit here, just take note, once that 2hr Uptrend hits, I have nothing that would signal we keep going at this moment, outside of Micro trend stuff. At that point, it sort of comes to the fact that there is some longer timeframe trends that seem to be oversold, but then the medium timeframe trends would all be saying downtrend past the 30m. Makes sense that we have almost no direction going into the next 3 days that will likely have more volatility.
As I decide to exit here, just take note, once that 2hr Uptrend hits, I have nothing that would signal we keep going at this moment, outside of Micro trend stuff. At that point, it sort of comes to the fact that there is some longer timeframe trends that seem to be oversold, but then the medium timeframe trends would all be saying downtrend past the 30m. Makes sense that we have almost no direction going into the next 3 days that will likely have more volatility.
Comment:
Ummm... what caused the volume surge and quick drop? Anyone know? There wasn't any Economic Data I'm aware of. That was Opening bell volume all the sudden.
Comment:
It would appear this sudden panic sell is due to the BoE and a statement that bond owners have 3 days or so to get everything in order. Still getting details, not exactly sure what caused a panic here also, but it was right at the same time this plummet began.
Comment:
We did get a 5m and 15m Downtrend signal during this. Both were higher lows... the 30m has not signaled yet down here. If it does, it would be a lower low.
Comment:
I really wanted to go long with this backwards movement around 3580, but, I don't understand it, so yeah, I'm just gonna call it a day. Not my best day, but I made my daily goal, so such is life. I'm annoyed and I don't want to trade when I'm annoyed.
Comment:
If it is any consolation to anyone looking to go Long, I did check, and as far as I can tell, the max negative days we've had in a row all year is 5, and this will be the 5th one for this string of losses.