Upward movement is hitting resistant Trends; Beware the Witching

So I had taken a small profit last night on 3997 short and then reengaged at 4000 where I had wanted to get in at to begin with. I had set an overnight cash out at 3968 based on the 1hr trendlines and while driving home today, totally forgot it was still set and it cashed me out of my short position for a profit of $1600. I'm not upset about it, but I likely would still be holding that position if that hadn't happened. I did not just jump back into the market at that point, and figured I'd take the time to sit back and analyze things. Given the high profit week I've had (I believe I'm close to around $20,000 but I'd have to check) I might just take the rest of the day off.

Anyways, there is some conflict in the trends depending on if I am looking at the ES contract overlay or specifically the ESM contract we are working inside right now. The ES overlay had a 2hr uptrend that came in at a higher high, whereas the 2hr hitting at the same spot on the ESM is a lower high. Also, the ES overlay had the 3hr and 4hr also go into an uptrend, whereas the ESM contract did not have those trend changes. It leaves be a bit conflicted on my short position, but overall my sentiment is still bearish on today's market.

The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 3987 Uptrend (3/16/2023) Lower High*
3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low*
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low*
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

Be aware the 1hr Downtrend stuck after I finished the video and is therefore more up to date in this write up.

The Long Position;
If I see a significant pull up towards the 4000 level and into positive territory, I may briefly go into a long position until I see the 3hr/4hr uptrends come in on the ESM contract. I don't know that I want to go Long here and attempt to catch this falling knife.

The Short Position;
Any pullback upwards that doesn't show a lot of bullish commitment where likely be another entry point to get in on a considerable move downward, likely back towards at least 3900. I think the rally in the Nasdaq will lose some of the push and a continue confidence loss in the financial sector and energy sector could really hurt the market today. This is my more likely scenario.

Economic Data;
Europe posted some really bad CPI data. Though surprisingly it did very little to the market overall. Otherwise, the US has some Michigan data coming out, such as consumer expectations, that could cause a ruckus at around 10am EST.

My Sentiment into Today (from 3965)
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral

I will make this as a "Short" idea today, because I believe that we end with a down day, and likely lower than 3965.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management!

Comment:

Since I'm out of my trade, I don't think I'll trade into the open here. See if we have a rally up or a fall through the floor back down.

Comment:

Michigan data is out, most of it is pretty gloomy. This data survey was done PRIOR to the banking issues at the moment also. So it doesn't include that doom and gloom... I've gone short at 3988

Comment:

2hr downtrend hit in at 3949. On the ES Overlay, it is a higher low, on the ESM only, it is a lower low. I'm sticking with the lower low aspect of it. The only issue we are now maxing out to the downtrend on the ESM only... Confusing position to be in that's for sure. I might just out on any major pushes down and call it a day.

Comment:

I've cashed out here for another $4000 day. Gonna take the rest of the day off. Best of luck to everyone!