ETHUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash.
*SELL-OFF WATCH. Cryptos and Equities are getting hammered as the effects of tighter monetary policy are starting to materialize in markets and the realization that the Federal Reserve may raise the funds rate beyond their 5.1%-5.2% projected terminal rate is a very real possibility. San Francisco Fed President Daly said today that her inflation projection has gone up and that she thinks we're still far away from the Fed's price stability goal; this matches Fed Chair Powell's statement, during Wednesday's FOMC press conference, about markets and the economy not having felt the full effects of tightening yet. New York Fed President Williams said today that the still tight labor market may warrant a higher terminal funds rate than the Federal Reserve has projected (>5.1%). The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 2.8%, down from 3.2% on 12/09.
All eyes are still on CZ and Binance as he appears to be saying the same things SBF was saying about FTX, about Binance. Srutiny over whether or not Binance is actually solvent is starting to heat up in the midst of a battle of words with Kevin O'Leary (who continues to solidify his appearance as a fraudulent celebrity by defending FTX and SBF). A class-action lawsuit was filed against Silvergate (a Federal Reserve member bank that supports cryptocurrency firms) for their involvement in transferring funds from FTX to Alameda Research, Silvergate's potential insolvency is a bearish catalyst that has yet to fully materialize in markets so it's important to keep track of this one. Russia continues to shell Ukraine's power grid infrastructure in attempt to push Ukraine into submission as the coldest of the winter months approaches.
DXY, US Long-Term Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture, JPYUSD and HSI are up. Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Short-Term US Treasurys, Energy, VIX, CNYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, N100 and NI225 are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $1196 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50MA at ~$1310 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red; Price is currently breaking down below the VP Point of Control at $1265. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1152, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 42 as it approaches a retest of the lower trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from November 2018 at 38 as support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at -3, if it falls below -3 then it would be a bearish crossover; the next support (minor) is at -46. ADX is currently trending sideways at -21 and is beginning to form a soft trough as Price continue to see selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $1270 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest $1k minor support for the first time since July 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1270.
*SELL-OFF WATCH. Cryptos and Equities are getting hammered as the effects of tighter monetary policy are starting to materialize in markets and the realization that the Federal Reserve may raise the funds rate beyond their 5.1%-5.2% projected terminal rate is a very real possibility. San Francisco Fed President Daly said today that her inflation projection has gone up and that she thinks we're still far away from the Fed's price stability goal; this matches Fed Chair Powell's statement, during Wednesday's FOMC press conference, about markets and the economy not having felt the full effects of tightening yet. New York Fed President Williams said today that the still tight labor market may warrant a higher terminal funds rate than the Federal Reserve has projected (>5.1%). The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 2.8%, down from 3.2% on 12/09.
All eyes are still on CZ and Binance as he appears to be saying the same things SBF was saying about FTX, about Binance. Srutiny over whether or not Binance is actually solvent is starting to heat up in the midst of a battle of words with Kevin O'Leary (who continues to solidify his appearance as a fraudulent celebrity by defending FTX and SBF). A class-action lawsuit was filed against Silvergate (a Federal Reserve member bank that supports cryptocurrency firms) for their involvement in transferring funds from FTX to Alameda Research, Silvergate's potential insolvency is a bearish catalyst that has yet to fully materialize in markets so it's important to keep track of this one. Russia continues to shell Ukraine's power grid infrastructure in attempt to push Ukraine into submission as the coldest of the winter months approaches.
DXY, US Long-Term Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture, JPYUSD and HSI are up. Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Short-Term US Treasurys, Energy, VIX, CNYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, N100 and NI225 are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $1196 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50MA at ~$1310 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red; Price is currently breaking down below the VP Point of Control at $1265. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1152, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 42 as it approaches a retest of the lower trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from November 2018 at 38 as support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at -3, if it falls below -3 then it would be a bearish crossover; the next support (minor) is at -46. ADX is currently trending sideways at -21 and is beginning to form a soft trough as Price continue to see selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $1270 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest $1k minor support for the first time since July 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1270.