Great start to the month, coming off the back of an end growth of 19.4% for August 2023!
The US Dollar is still pushing strong, in what? The beginning of the 13th straight week of gains? Something like that. Obviously that still brings with it a lot of bearish bias to EU, GU and a bullish bias to UJ.
Have to admit, in the back of my mind, I am still thinking 10+ weeks of gains, its got to slow down and reverse soon but the Eurozone isn't exactly offering much to fight the dollar, and the Japanese Yen is trading near to its yearly lows!
I have spent a lot of time in the charts over the weekend backtesting and optimising what I call " The VWAP momentum strategy". Other than a friends birthday party on Saturday evening, all I have seen and done is look at candles, and a squiggly line. I am pretty sure I have seen every 5m candle from May to present day 3 or 4 times now.
It is understandable then, that Ive looked at the charts for 2 hours and called it a day today. Honestly wasnt feeling it, but if the money is there for the taking, I'm taking
As said, bearish bias on EU is well and truly maintained which is the pair that I made the trade on today. UJ didnt seem to have the legs to pull away from VWAP, and I am not a massive fan of GU.
EU. Short. Naturally.
I had missed a lot of the move initially and so was almost resigned to not trade today, until I saw a break of the daily level 1.05432 on EU at roughly 1400 UTC+3. Watched price retrace back into the daily level and hoped to see some confirmation for a trend continuation trade to the short side. Saw a bearish engulfing candle at 1440 UTC+3 and set a sell stop order below the previous low hoping to get triggered in.
Set it a bit close, as it was the spread that triggered me in, not the fact it pushed into new lows so had a slight bit of drawdown up to roughly -1%, though it never broke and closed above the low I had drawn out previously so I was relatively comfortable. Eventually price did push through, with a slow bleed into lower prices.
News was due on the horizon so I left my stops out with full 2% risk, as the news was expected to be good for the dollar. News passed and as expected, pushed price around a bit, and as it closed the bearish white candle on the screenshot, that was when I brought my stops to breakeven.
Price melted and pushed down, and put me within 5 pips of take profit, and checking DXY at that time shown it had just took out the Thursday and Friday highs. Price movement and reaction to be expected.
I handled the pullback well, though it did rip about £150 off of my profits as it did. Never made new highs though, and respected the body close of the news. After that it was smooth sailing, saw it breaking down from that new resistance level, stop loss brought in above it and simply followed the price to TP which was based a few pips above 1h lows of Thursday.
Simple trade really. Summed up by a break and retest of a daily level, sell stop order below the low, triggered in, aim for previous structure and lows of higher time frames. No crazy colourful indicators, no overwhelming lumps of information coming from RSI, or MACD, or whatever else. Simple trading.
October
Trades 1
Won 1
Loss 0
Daily gain 5.29%
Weekly gain 5.29%
Monthly gain 5.29%
Harry
The US Dollar is still pushing strong, in what? The beginning of the 13th straight week of gains? Something like that. Obviously that still brings with it a lot of bearish bias to EU, GU and a bullish bias to UJ.
Have to admit, in the back of my mind, I am still thinking 10+ weeks of gains, its got to slow down and reverse soon but the Eurozone isn't exactly offering much to fight the dollar, and the Japanese Yen is trading near to its yearly lows!
I have spent a lot of time in the charts over the weekend backtesting and optimising what I call " The VWAP momentum strategy". Other than a friends birthday party on Saturday evening, all I have seen and done is look at candles, and a squiggly line. I am pretty sure I have seen every 5m candle from May to present day 3 or 4 times now.
It is understandable then, that Ive looked at the charts for 2 hours and called it a day today. Honestly wasnt feeling it, but if the money is there for the taking, I'm taking
As said, bearish bias on EU is well and truly maintained which is the pair that I made the trade on today. UJ didnt seem to have the legs to pull away from VWAP, and I am not a massive fan of GU.
EU. Short. Naturally.
I had missed a lot of the move initially and so was almost resigned to not trade today, until I saw a break of the daily level 1.05432 on EU at roughly 1400 UTC+3. Watched price retrace back into the daily level and hoped to see some confirmation for a trend continuation trade to the short side. Saw a bearish engulfing candle at 1440 UTC+3 and set a sell stop order below the previous low hoping to get triggered in.
Set it a bit close, as it was the spread that triggered me in, not the fact it pushed into new lows so had a slight bit of drawdown up to roughly -1%, though it never broke and closed above the low I had drawn out previously so I was relatively comfortable. Eventually price did push through, with a slow bleed into lower prices.
News was due on the horizon so I left my stops out with full 2% risk, as the news was expected to be good for the dollar. News passed and as expected, pushed price around a bit, and as it closed the bearish white candle on the screenshot, that was when I brought my stops to breakeven.
Price melted and pushed down, and put me within 5 pips of take profit, and checking DXY at that time shown it had just took out the Thursday and Friday highs. Price movement and reaction to be expected.
I handled the pullback well, though it did rip about £150 off of my profits as it did. Never made new highs though, and respected the body close of the news. After that it was smooth sailing, saw it breaking down from that new resistance level, stop loss brought in above it and simply followed the price to TP which was based a few pips above 1h lows of Thursday.
Simple trade really. Summed up by a break and retest of a daily level, sell stop order below the low, triggered in, aim for previous structure and lows of higher time frames. No crazy colourful indicators, no overwhelming lumps of information coming from RSI, or MACD, or whatever else. Simple trading.
October
Trades 1
Won 1
Loss 0
Daily gain 5.29%
Weekly gain 5.29%
Monthly gain 5.29%
Harry