Rough day that turned good!
I posted an idea about going short the NZDUSD last night. AND it lost so before I woke up I was 2% down. In hindsight, maybe I should have brought stops to breakeven once the 5 minute double top was completed. I did allude to that, in my post last night, but with it being a bit tight, figured 1:2 was the way to go. I explain in the below attached screenshot that I ignored vital signs that it was unlikely to go down, at least at that time.
Certainly if I wasn't short at that time, I would look at that as a very high probability trade to the topside... yet I held on, and watch profits erode into a loss, without so much as bringing stops to break even. I just went to bed and thought it will be alright.
The reason I am doing this journal is to document to myself, find ways to improve and search for mistakes I make, it could possibly stop other people making them. This particular trade is the first one that has really highlighted a flaw in my trading. I'm not reactive enough, nor am I flexible enough. I am very much entering a position, and dead set on my RR. I cant close at a profit of 1:1.2 because the next one I lose will wipe it, I would need to be more accurate, I will hold. 1:2 affords me 33% accuracy. Ultimately closing at breakeven, or, like in this case, wiping out stops and I take the loss. Does that make sense? Looking at it now, its a close the trade at profit and go long and take out the previous days highs. Its obvious. Lesson learned already for the future.
I do still maintain that it is a solid opportunity to go short, but the execution and handling of the trade was wrong on my part
I still maintain a bearish bias towards it, and I still maintain that the daily level of 0.58138 is coming soon.
In fact, I believe in it so much, I entered again... and lost the trade... again. Either fortunately or unfortunately I got some of the good form of slippage, so instead of a 2% risk, according to myFXbook, it was 1.7%.
I entered this time, no less than 6 hours after losing the first time. I considered prior to this trade that my stops on the first NZDUSD trade were too close and I didn't take into account the previous daily high 2 level. Well this has been swept now. Price is now coming into my original entry, and had broke VWAP with volume. I went short again on or roundabout the close of that candle. Targets were quite away again, hoping that this time would be the time that the daily level is hit, especially with the news. But it wasnt to be. A minute or 2 before the news, I got stopped out BY SPREAD, at -1.7% loss. Im down 3.7% and we have only just got to London open
So, thats my losses for the day.
Winners then, and there were 3 of them, though 2 were at the same time
One of the winners was long the NZDUSD funnily enough, as I seem to be in love with the idea of shorting it. Another funny thing about it is that being biased this pair, seeing the news coming in and sending a huge spike to the downside into the pair, going long is ridiculous isnt it? It has confirmed my bias...
The thing with news is that (I believe) the spike generated hasn't had all its orders filled, and so generally retraces back into that spike and either consolidates, or dumps again and continues the trend. Or in otherwords, a repeatable pattern that I think has an edge of the markets. I was looking for entries on both the 1m and 3m, and im looking for the momentum to slow, and a change in candle colour. That it. Slow down and I want to see buyers testing the water, I see that im in, stops below the spike, and targets near to but not directly at the top of the candle. Looks like this...
The second entry comes as a swing high gets broken. I dont recommend going full into it, its a volatile market. Certainly dont enter these with 2% risk each, and dont be greedy with it. Find the middle ground of letting it breathe, but at the same time, really be tight with the stops. The first entry was 1 percent, and the second was a 1.2% which gives me enough space to bring the first entry a little closer using the stop level as entry 2. Im roughly at a 1.8% risk with 2 entries. Price then retraced a few pips, and put my first entry into a bit of drawdown, followed by a small push up then a bigger bearish candle. Am I wrong again? Price then said no, pushed up, breaking the highs giving me the opportunity to bring my stops in, under that candle so Im essentially following it. Price works its way up, I eventually get my stops to entry 2 level, giving a profitable SL for entry 1, and breakeven for entry 2. Pushes up, hits 1st target, then hits target 2 which I had as VWAP. Left a bit on the table, but nice trade nonetheless I think.
Profits of 1.32% and 1.74% each or 3.06% gain.
Last trade of the day was on the EURUSD, a would be good trade if I stuck to my plan but again mired by bad handling.
Simple enough and reasonably self explanatory, a rejection of a daily level shown by a pinbar on 1m chart, entry, target at the bottom of the news spike. Simple, nothing over complicated or clever
Is how I saw the trade going prior to entry. Exactly like this.
But greed set in, and i moved my TP further down. Queue hitting where the TP was before and a retracement, all the way back up to almost breakeven. I had planned to close the trade manually if price surpassed break even. But at this point im frustrated with myself. Stick to the plan. Why get greedy. WHY?
When price finally decided it wasnt going to force my hand to close, and decided to push down, I firmly place my TP at the original place I had it. Price cleared through it, onto where I moved my target to on the first attempt.
4.18% gain regardless.
The trade ended like this, which looks like a shower of the brown stuff, and I believe more luck was involved with that than anything else. Very lucky.
Im really happy with the entry of the trade, happy with where my TP was, and stops. Not happy about getting greedy. Lesson 2 learned I think.
PL for the week and month is good though, so I have some solace in that at least.
Today: +5.52%
Week: +3.40%
Month: 13% gain bang on the dot
Let me know what you think, do you make these mistakes as well?
Have you overcome them? How did you overcome them if you did?
Until next time, Safe trading!
H
I posted an idea about going short the NZDUSD last night. AND it lost so before I woke up I was 2% down. In hindsight, maybe I should have brought stops to breakeven once the 5 minute double top was completed. I did allude to that, in my post last night, but with it being a bit tight, figured 1:2 was the way to go. I explain in the below attached screenshot that I ignored vital signs that it was unlikely to go down, at least at that time.
Certainly if I wasn't short at that time, I would look at that as a very high probability trade to the topside... yet I held on, and watch profits erode into a loss, without so much as bringing stops to break even. I just went to bed and thought it will be alright.
The reason I am doing this journal is to document to myself, find ways to improve and search for mistakes I make, it could possibly stop other people making them. This particular trade is the first one that has really highlighted a flaw in my trading. I'm not reactive enough, nor am I flexible enough. I am very much entering a position, and dead set on my RR. I cant close at a profit of 1:1.2 because the next one I lose will wipe it, I would need to be more accurate, I will hold. 1:2 affords me 33% accuracy. Ultimately closing at breakeven, or, like in this case, wiping out stops and I take the loss. Does that make sense? Looking at it now, its a close the trade at profit and go long and take out the previous days highs. Its obvious. Lesson learned already for the future.
I do still maintain that it is a solid opportunity to go short, but the execution and handling of the trade was wrong on my part
I still maintain a bearish bias towards it, and I still maintain that the daily level of 0.58138 is coming soon.
In fact, I believe in it so much, I entered again... and lost the trade... again. Either fortunately or unfortunately I got some of the good form of slippage, so instead of a 2% risk, according to myFXbook, it was 1.7%.
I entered this time, no less than 6 hours after losing the first time. I considered prior to this trade that my stops on the first NZDUSD trade were too close and I didn't take into account the previous daily high 2 level. Well this has been swept now. Price is now coming into my original entry, and had broke VWAP with volume. I went short again on or roundabout the close of that candle. Targets were quite away again, hoping that this time would be the time that the daily level is hit, especially with the news. But it wasnt to be. A minute or 2 before the news, I got stopped out BY SPREAD, at -1.7% loss. Im down 3.7% and we have only just got to London open
So, thats my losses for the day.
Winners then, and there were 3 of them, though 2 were at the same time
One of the winners was long the NZDUSD funnily enough, as I seem to be in love with the idea of shorting it. Another funny thing about it is that being biased this pair, seeing the news coming in and sending a huge spike to the downside into the pair, going long is ridiculous isnt it? It has confirmed my bias...
The thing with news is that (I believe) the spike generated hasn't had all its orders filled, and so generally retraces back into that spike and either consolidates, or dumps again and continues the trend. Or in otherwords, a repeatable pattern that I think has an edge of the markets. I was looking for entries on both the 1m and 3m, and im looking for the momentum to slow, and a change in candle colour. That it. Slow down and I want to see buyers testing the water, I see that im in, stops below the spike, and targets near to but not directly at the top of the candle. Looks like this...
The second entry comes as a swing high gets broken. I dont recommend going full into it, its a volatile market. Certainly dont enter these with 2% risk each, and dont be greedy with it. Find the middle ground of letting it breathe, but at the same time, really be tight with the stops. The first entry was 1 percent, and the second was a 1.2% which gives me enough space to bring the first entry a little closer using the stop level as entry 2. Im roughly at a 1.8% risk with 2 entries. Price then retraced a few pips, and put my first entry into a bit of drawdown, followed by a small push up then a bigger bearish candle. Am I wrong again? Price then said no, pushed up, breaking the highs giving me the opportunity to bring my stops in, under that candle so Im essentially following it. Price works its way up, I eventually get my stops to entry 2 level, giving a profitable SL for entry 1, and breakeven for entry 2. Pushes up, hits 1st target, then hits target 2 which I had as VWAP. Left a bit on the table, but nice trade nonetheless I think.
Profits of 1.32% and 1.74% each or 3.06% gain.
Last trade of the day was on the EURUSD, a would be good trade if I stuck to my plan but again mired by bad handling.
Simple enough and reasonably self explanatory, a rejection of a daily level shown by a pinbar on 1m chart, entry, target at the bottom of the news spike. Simple, nothing over complicated or clever
Is how I saw the trade going prior to entry. Exactly like this.
But greed set in, and i moved my TP further down. Queue hitting where the TP was before and a retracement, all the way back up to almost breakeven. I had planned to close the trade manually if price surpassed break even. But at this point im frustrated with myself. Stick to the plan. Why get greedy. WHY?
When price finally decided it wasnt going to force my hand to close, and decided to push down, I firmly place my TP at the original place I had it. Price cleared through it, onto where I moved my target to on the first attempt.
4.18% gain regardless.
The trade ended like this, which looks like a shower of the brown stuff, and I believe more luck was involved with that than anything else. Very lucky.
Im really happy with the entry of the trade, happy with where my TP was, and stops. Not happy about getting greedy. Lesson 2 learned I think.
PL for the week and month is good though, so I have some solace in that at least.
Today: +5.52%
Week: +3.40%
Month: 13% gain bang on the dot
Let me know what you think, do you make these mistakes as well?
Have you overcome them? How did you overcome them if you did?
Until next time, Safe trading!
H