I shorted EUR/USD after an 2 hour close below 1.1012(weekly close 12/18/23) with a tight stop at 1.1050. While that level has not been retested on the daily or weekly charts, the subsequent weekly candles have formed an evening star.
Support at the uptrend line is at 1.0696. A break and close(pick your own time frame comfort level) could drop price to the MA100 on the weekly chart at 1.0630.
I believe this potential price action will be triggered by the USD CPI on 1/11/24 followed by the EUR CPI print on 1/17/24.
Once again(like a broken record), the FOMC mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable (consumer) prices and moderate long term interest rates. To date, only 1 out of 3 goals, employment, has been reached. I am not joining the chorus of Fed rate cuts, yet. But even a 25-50 base point cut will not change the overall USD positive scenario much. However, keep an eye on USD 10Y yields.
LONG TERM: Keep in mind, there is a significant area of support/resistance on the weekly chart at 1.0086 that has not been retested since the all time low at 0.9536. That is a discussion for another day.
I stopped posting after a gnarly car accident(not my fault) in 2023 but I am ready, physically and mentally, to once again tackle this awesome beast, trading.
Best of luck traders and thank you for reading.
Support at the uptrend line is at 1.0696. A break and close(pick your own time frame comfort level) could drop price to the MA100 on the weekly chart at 1.0630.
I believe this potential price action will be triggered by the USD CPI on 1/11/24 followed by the EUR CPI print on 1/17/24.
Once again(like a broken record), the FOMC mandate is to promote maximum employment, stable (consumer) prices and moderate long term interest rates. To date, only 1 out of 3 goals, employment, has been reached. I am not joining the chorus of Fed rate cuts, yet. But even a 25-50 base point cut will not change the overall USD positive scenario much. However, keep an eye on USD 10Y yields.
LONG TERM: Keep in mind, there is a significant area of support/resistance on the weekly chart at 1.0086 that has not been retested since the all time low at 0.9536. That is a discussion for another day.
I stopped posting after a gnarly car accident(not my fault) in 2023 but I am ready, physically and mentally, to once again tackle this awesome beast, trading.
Best of luck traders and thank you for reading.
