GBP/JPY Set for Downward Spiral with Classic Retracement!
The assessment of the current market situation involving a specific currency pair suggests a thoughtful observation of the technical and fundamental elements influencing the market. The trader's analysis highlights key aspects that may impact the currency's trajectory.
The trader's discussion begins with a technical analysis, noting a significant rejection at the classic 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line, indicating a potential bearish trend for the pair. This observation suggests a possible downward movement based on technical indicators.
The analysis also incorporates fundamental factors, primarily focusing on the GBP (British Pound) and its potential downturn. The trader points out various reasons that may contribute to a depreciation of the currency:
Local Financial Challenges: Highlighting the financial distress faced by a considerable number of councils in the UK, potentially leading to or already in a state of bankruptcy. This could signify economic struggles at a local level, potentially impacting the broader economic stability.
High Inflation Rates: Noting that inflation remains persistently high, significantly above the 6% mark. This high inflation could indicate economic instability and affect consumer purchasing power, subsequently impacting the overall economy.
Increasing Defaults on Credit: Discussing the concerning rise in defaults on credit cards and subprime car loans over the past six months. This trend reflects potential financial stress among consumers, suggesting a possible strain on the banking and financial sectors.
Elevated Energy Prices and Economic Impact: Highlighting the significant increase in energy prices by 50% compared to the previous year, with only a marginal 1% reduction. This situation leads to reduced disposable income for households, potentially impacting consumer spending on essential goods and luxury items, ultimately affecting GDP and potentially leading the UK into a substantial economic downturn.
The analysis combines technical and fundamental factors, providing a comprehensive perspective on the potential downward movement of the GBP against the specified pair. It incorporates both market indicators and economic conditions, offering a thorough evaluation of potential market trends and their underlying causes.
The trader's discussion begins with a technical analysis, noting a significant rejection at the classic 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line, indicating a potential bearish trend for the pair. This observation suggests a possible downward movement based on technical indicators.
The analysis also incorporates fundamental factors, primarily focusing on the GBP (British Pound) and its potential downturn. The trader points out various reasons that may contribute to a depreciation of the currency:
Local Financial Challenges: Highlighting the financial distress faced by a considerable number of councils in the UK, potentially leading to or already in a state of bankruptcy. This could signify economic struggles at a local level, potentially impacting the broader economic stability.
High Inflation Rates: Noting that inflation remains persistently high, significantly above the 6% mark. This high inflation could indicate economic instability and affect consumer purchasing power, subsequently impacting the overall economy.
Increasing Defaults on Credit: Discussing the concerning rise in defaults on credit cards and subprime car loans over the past six months. This trend reflects potential financial stress among consumers, suggesting a possible strain on the banking and financial sectors.
Elevated Energy Prices and Economic Impact: Highlighting the significant increase in energy prices by 50% compared to the previous year, with only a marginal 1% reduction. This situation leads to reduced disposable income for households, potentially impacting consumer spending on essential goods and luxury items, ultimately affecting GDP and potentially leading the UK into a substantial economic downturn.
The analysis combines technical and fundamental factors, providing a comprehensive perspective on the potential downward movement of the GBP against the specified pair. It incorporates both market indicators and economic conditions, offering a thorough evaluation of potential market trends and their underlying causes.
Trade active:
Took a position at 2% RR, stop loss just above Daily resistance
Comment:
So far in profit by 15 pips, great trade so far, Entry was exactly 185.700, with stop loss 186.99 and TP at 183.
Trade active:
Trade playing out beautifully!
Trade active:
Still in the trade, looks like a slow decline over the next couple of days. SL Moved to break even
Comment:
Still in the trade, beautiful double top formed on hourly chart. GDP release tomorrow and I believe that it will be weak and GBP/JPY will flush.
Trade closed manually:
SL hit.