Here is my roll up of my R/A
There is a decent amount going on in the markets and I am out of all my positions. I will see what is going on and determine what the next steps in my plan are. My current plan has me getting into Silver and building more on SHIB. I think getting into Silver and SHIB right now isn’t a good move. Reason being, I think price on Silver is going to push lower and the same with SHIB. The time for easy money isn’t here anymore and things are about to tighten further. So on to the Roll up:
USD: price is attempting to stay above the 104 lvl . If price is able to stay above this lvl throughout next week, then the chance for price push higher and hitting the 105 will increase. The FED is increasing rates still and this is good for price to move higher, and inflation still proving to be an issues also helps the USD. But the FED isn’t the one’s increasing rates, and this is likely to keep putting pressure on the USD. The FED is also possibly going to reduce the size of rate hikes and there are thoughts of the FED stopping and holding. This month, the FED rate decision will come out and renewed vigor in price pushing will happen if the FED hikes by 0.50%. For now, price is likely to keep attempting to stay above the 104 lvl and it will be more credible on price pushing higher if it is able to stay above that lvl . On the longer term, price may be able to break higher and possibly hit the 106 lvl , maybe even the 110. If the FED inflation does become tougher to break and the FED goes Super Sayian on inflation , this will push price higher. The US economy has more room to withstand further rate hikes, but of course, it will eventually take its toll.
EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot.
CAD: the BOC is holding on rate hikes as inflation is dropping (still a little high though) and its economy is holding on. Oil prices are pushing higher, but there are talks about the UAE pulling out of OPEC so it can increase its production. If Oil is able to push higher, the CAD will be able to push lower, especially if the FED starts talking about holding rates. Price is in a range from 1.20/1.42, and I am thinking for now, price is likely to push higher. With the FED continuing to increase and the BOC holding, it is likely that price might be able to hit the 1. 40 lvl .
GBP: this pair is in my focus. The 1.20 lvl is very strong and price is having a hard time breaking lower. But it isn’t a if, it is when will price break lower with enough momentum to stay below it. The reason is the UK economy is on its last breath. Annual GDP barely printed a gain and its declining. Wage growth is high, but not enough to cover inflation which is at 10.1%. The BOE doesn’t want to go to hard on raising rates, even with inflation that high. Industrials and Manufacturing Production is constricting. Retail Sales are in the negatives. It is just a maelstrom of things happening, yet the 1.20 lvl is holding. What is keeping the GBP above the 1.20. The BOE is looking to raise rate three more times in an attempt to fight inflation , but will this work? If 10/7 or 7/10 rule is used, that means prices will double every seven years. This will destroy the purchasing power of its citizens . So if the EUR is in a tough spot, the UK is in a tough spot with a tough spot, not know it’s in that tough spot. I don’t think think the drop is going to happen now. I thin price will likely start moving in the end of the second quarter. For now, I’ll see if price can hit the 1.22 lvl .
JPY: this pair is a self fulfilling prophesy. There are a bunch of analysis and articles saying that the BOJ will need to start increasing rates as inflation keeps increasing. But for now, I am thinking that the BOJ wants to keep loose monetary policy because it spent years attempting to do this, and now inflation is finally pushing higher. They little have a cap somewhere and if price breaks whatever lvl that is (maybe 4%), then they will start hiking rates or start hinting at it. But what they do like doing is intervening in the FX Market which helps out only short term, so this might happen first. The Japanese economy also is hurting and if they do decide to increase rates and remove the Yield Curve Control, their currency is going to appreciate strongly, and definitely affect their economy.
AUD: not too many thoughts on this pair. I was going to get into this pair but found out the NZD is the better choice.
NZD: the New Zealand economy is looking the best among all the currencies I am looking at. GDP is good, unemployment is low, Wage Growth is rising, Industrials and Manufacturing is good, and inflation is rising. This shows that the RBNZ is likely to keep hiking and rate hikes potentially hinting 5.5% is probable. If rates keep pushing higher and are able to hit 5.5%, then price is likely to at least hit the 0.70 lvl . The best thing to do is possibly building a position on here already. The monthly chart is also showing a descending wedge , which is pushing this pair to be a high probability trade. I haven’t read too much news on this, but sentiment does favor the NZD potentially push higher. This pair, like the EHUF, has the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment in line which pushes my conviction to around 60%, which makes it where I will build a position on this pair.
CHF: I am not looking at this pair that much because of the increased rates and the potential for rates to go higher. I am thinking price is going to drop to at least 0.88 as the Swiss economy is doing alright and could stand another rate hike to combat inflation . The SNB has stated that if there are issues in the FX Market, it is ready to intervene. I think this pair will be a good trade, but not until later on in the year or 2024.
ZAR: nothing for this pair.
GCAD: I am thinking this pair in the short term is going to push higher, maybe above 1.65. That is the lvl I am waiting for to hit. If price does hit this lvl , I am likely to start building a pair on this position. The UK economy only has some time left before it starts cracking even further and the Canadian economy is able to withstand a little more hit to its economy. If Oil does good also, price on this pair is likely to break the 1.60 lvl and start pushing towards the 1.50.
EHUF: price is pushing higher and could push above the 380 lvl . If this happens I’ll start building my position on here, before price pushed back below the 380 lvl . If I am able to place a stop at the 380 lvl , I’ll be able to have a set and forget trade and just ride price lower while collect positive rollover. Price is pushing higher because of the lowering of its credit rating, but I think that is only emotional as inflation is still really high and the NBH is ready and willing to raise rates. If the next inflation printing pushes inflation higher, I think the NBH will act. The ECB is also raising rates, which is likely to lead to price on the EHUF pushing higher. If price pushes to 385 or higher, I’ll take that as an opportunity to get in at a better price.
Gold /Silver: I am thinking price is likely to break the 1800 lvl and 20 lvl , respectively. There is a series of rates hikes going on and Gold and Silver will not be protected against this. The isn't easy money out there previously, during 2021 is not there no more, so it will be hard for Gold and Silver to keep climbing. If price on Silver is able to hit the 14 lvl (which I think it is possible), I am going to stack up on this commodity.
Oil: price is moving higher and is nearing the 80 lvl . But if price does break higher, will it be able to hold. Russia is reducing exports and production and OPEC is sticking too reductions in productions. But with thoughts of a global recession increasing and the mixed comments that come from China and its economy recovering, is likely to push a lot of pressure on Oil . The USD is getting stronger too, which is also hitting the price of Oil . With all these rate hikes, economies will start getting colder and Oil might push to the 70 lvl . But I think in 2025 price is likely to push above the 100 lvl as things start recovering.
DJ(F): price does not want to push lower. Price is pushing back into the range it broke out of, and I am not sure why. There was a whole bunch of new about lay offs of major corporations and more people are getting laid off. Recession is around the corner with higher and higher inflation , which point to higher interest rates. Yet price is still above the 30,000 lvl . Something is brewing and it will hit stocks like a ton of bricks. I am thinking this because the FED rate hikes don’t happen immediately, but when the interest rates start moving their way throughout the system, the economy will fill it. What the interesting part is, what will the FED do once a recession does happen. The FEDs tool when a recession does happen is to lower rates and the Government pushes out stimulus to spur the economy. But if a recession happens and inflation is, let’s say, 5%, will the FED and the Government still go ahead with what they did previously? As things develop, it is looking more and more that the FED will keep holding high interest rates for a while, even during the recession, if they really have the conviction to fight inflation .
MLFB and ASTR: these stocks are a long shot. MLFB has been attempting for years to open up a season but it hasn’t happen. It has even less money now and there isn’t much PR coming out, nothing about marketing, and no word from the leadership at MLFB. But, if Frank Murtha still has some fight left in him, it would be a good time to start down some PR to keep the stock in people’s minds. ASTR is having a hard time push higher and it is looking more and more like it might get delisted. This stock had some promise, but there has been no moving in the PR departments for this stock also. Not only this, but with is a credit crunch with these stocks as interest rates push higher. If price on these pairs tank, I already have it that I am ok with losing the money.
SHIB: crypto is in a snowstorm and when things do go good for it, something else happens (such as the Silvergate incident). But if price can hold on and survive, when the bitcoin having happens, that might breath some life into crypto and Bitcoin might be able to hit 30,000, ETH 2,000, and SHIB 0.000015. There is still some more pain though, from now until the end of the second corner, as central banks are still hiking. Now, what the interesting part is, if a recession does happen and central banks do not drop rates and hold, will crypto still be able to push higher? Possibly. The Government could somehow still push out stimulus and if they do, could give crypto a push higher as people start putting that in crypto and NFTs again. But this will likely spur inflation again and at that point will the central banks increase rates further? Who knows, only time will tell.
The theme of the markets now is Rate Hikes and the fighting of inflation . Also recession thoughts are in the mix. Additionally this might lead to a divergence between the Central Banks and the Governments as one will want to stabilize price while the other wants to stimulate the economy. I think by the end of summer of this year, things will start unfolding, and we will find out if the concern is more on fighting inflation or saving the economy.
Trading does carry a lot of risk and it is imperative you conduct your own research and analysis. By not doing this you could lose a lot of money and sometimes more if the markets move against you. These are just my thoughts and I have my own way of trading that took me time to hone and work with my personality. Wish you all the best in your trading.
There is a decent amount going on in the markets and I am out of all my positions. I will see what is going on and determine what the next steps in my plan are. My current plan has me getting into Silver and building more on SHIB. I think getting into Silver and SHIB right now isn’t a good move. Reason being, I think price on Silver is going to push lower and the same with SHIB. The time for easy money isn’t here anymore and things are about to tighten further. So on to the Roll up:
USD: price is attempting to stay above the 104 lvl . If price is able to stay above this lvl throughout next week, then the chance for price push higher and hitting the 105 will increase. The FED is increasing rates still and this is good for price to move higher, and inflation still proving to be an issues also helps the USD. But the FED isn’t the one’s increasing rates, and this is likely to keep putting pressure on the USD. The FED is also possibly going to reduce the size of rate hikes and there are thoughts of the FED stopping and holding. This month, the FED rate decision will come out and renewed vigor in price pushing will happen if the FED hikes by 0.50%. For now, price is likely to keep attempting to stay above the 104 lvl and it will be more credible on price pushing higher if it is able to stay above that lvl . On the longer term, price may be able to break higher and possibly hit the 106 lvl , maybe even the 110. If the FED inflation does become tougher to break and the FED goes Super Sayian on inflation , this will push price higher. The US economy has more room to withstand further rate hikes, but of course, it will eventually take its toll.
EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot.
CAD: the BOC is holding on rate hikes as inflation is dropping (still a little high though) and its economy is holding on. Oil prices are pushing higher, but there are talks about the UAE pulling out of OPEC so it can increase its production. If Oil is able to push higher, the CAD will be able to push lower, especially if the FED starts talking about holding rates. Price is in a range from 1.20/1.42, and I am thinking for now, price is likely to push higher. With the FED continuing to increase and the BOC holding, it is likely that price might be able to hit the 1. 40 lvl .
GBP: this pair is in my focus. The 1.20 lvl is very strong and price is having a hard time breaking lower. But it isn’t a if, it is when will price break lower with enough momentum to stay below it. The reason is the UK economy is on its last breath. Annual GDP barely printed a gain and its declining. Wage growth is high, but not enough to cover inflation which is at 10.1%. The BOE doesn’t want to go to hard on raising rates, even with inflation that high. Industrials and Manufacturing Production is constricting. Retail Sales are in the negatives. It is just a maelstrom of things happening, yet the 1.20 lvl is holding. What is keeping the GBP above the 1.20. The BOE is looking to raise rate three more times in an attempt to fight inflation , but will this work? If 10/7 or 7/10 rule is used, that means prices will double every seven years. This will destroy the purchasing power of its citizens . So if the EUR is in a tough spot, the UK is in a tough spot with a tough spot, not know it’s in that tough spot. I don’t think think the drop is going to happen now. I thin price will likely start moving in the end of the second quarter. For now, I’ll see if price can hit the 1.22 lvl .
JPY: this pair is a self fulfilling prophesy. There are a bunch of analysis and articles saying that the BOJ will need to start increasing rates as inflation keeps increasing. But for now, I am thinking that the BOJ wants to keep loose monetary policy because it spent years attempting to do this, and now inflation is finally pushing higher. They little have a cap somewhere and if price breaks whatever lvl that is (maybe 4%), then they will start hiking rates or start hinting at it. But what they do like doing is intervening in the FX Market which helps out only short term, so this might happen first. The Japanese economy also is hurting and if they do decide to increase rates and remove the Yield Curve Control, their currency is going to appreciate strongly, and definitely affect their economy.
AUD: not too many thoughts on this pair. I was going to get into this pair but found out the NZD is the better choice.
NZD: the New Zealand economy is looking the best among all the currencies I am looking at. GDP is good, unemployment is low, Wage Growth is rising, Industrials and Manufacturing is good, and inflation is rising. This shows that the RBNZ is likely to keep hiking and rate hikes potentially hinting 5.5% is probable. If rates keep pushing higher and are able to hit 5.5%, then price is likely to at least hit the 0.70 lvl . The best thing to do is possibly building a position on here already. The monthly chart is also showing a descending wedge , which is pushing this pair to be a high probability trade. I haven’t read too much news on this, but sentiment does favor the NZD potentially push higher. This pair, like the EHUF, has the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment in line which pushes my conviction to around 60%, which makes it where I will build a position on this pair.
CHF: I am not looking at this pair that much because of the increased rates and the potential for rates to go higher. I am thinking price is going to drop to at least 0.88 as the Swiss economy is doing alright and could stand another rate hike to combat inflation . The SNB has stated that if there are issues in the FX Market, it is ready to intervene. I think this pair will be a good trade, but not until later on in the year or 2024.
ZAR: nothing for this pair.
GCAD: I am thinking this pair in the short term is going to push higher, maybe above 1.65. That is the lvl I am waiting for to hit. If price does hit this lvl , I am likely to start building a pair on this position. The UK economy only has some time left before it starts cracking even further and the Canadian economy is able to withstand a little more hit to its economy. If Oil does good also, price on this pair is likely to break the 1.60 lvl and start pushing towards the 1.50.
EHUF: price is pushing higher and could push above the 380 lvl . If this happens I’ll start building my position on here, before price pushed back below the 380 lvl . If I am able to place a stop at the 380 lvl , I’ll be able to have a set and forget trade and just ride price lower while collect positive rollover. Price is pushing higher because of the lowering of its credit rating, but I think that is only emotional as inflation is still really high and the NBH is ready and willing to raise rates. If the next inflation printing pushes inflation higher, I think the NBH will act. The ECB is also raising rates, which is likely to lead to price on the EHUF pushing higher. If price pushes to 385 or higher, I’ll take that as an opportunity to get in at a better price.
Gold /Silver: I am thinking price is likely to break the 1800 lvl and 20 lvl , respectively. There is a series of rates hikes going on and Gold and Silver will not be protected against this. The isn't easy money out there previously, during 2021 is not there no more, so it will be hard for Gold and Silver to keep climbing. If price on Silver is able to hit the 14 lvl (which I think it is possible), I am going to stack up on this commodity.
Oil: price is moving higher and is nearing the 80 lvl . But if price does break higher, will it be able to hold. Russia is reducing exports and production and OPEC is sticking too reductions in productions. But with thoughts of a global recession increasing and the mixed comments that come from China and its economy recovering, is likely to push a lot of pressure on Oil . The USD is getting stronger too, which is also hitting the price of Oil . With all these rate hikes, economies will start getting colder and Oil might push to the 70 lvl . But I think in 2025 price is likely to push above the 100 lvl as things start recovering.
DJ(F): price does not want to push lower. Price is pushing back into the range it broke out of, and I am not sure why. There was a whole bunch of new about lay offs of major corporations and more people are getting laid off. Recession is around the corner with higher and higher inflation , which point to higher interest rates. Yet price is still above the 30,000 lvl . Something is brewing and it will hit stocks like a ton of bricks. I am thinking this because the FED rate hikes don’t happen immediately, but when the interest rates start moving their way throughout the system, the economy will fill it. What the interesting part is, what will the FED do once a recession does happen. The FEDs tool when a recession does happen is to lower rates and the Government pushes out stimulus to spur the economy. But if a recession happens and inflation is, let’s say, 5%, will the FED and the Government still go ahead with what they did previously? As things develop, it is looking more and more that the FED will keep holding high interest rates for a while, even during the recession, if they really have the conviction to fight inflation .
MLFB and ASTR: these stocks are a long shot. MLFB has been attempting for years to open up a season but it hasn’t happen. It has even less money now and there isn’t much PR coming out, nothing about marketing, and no word from the leadership at MLFB. But, if Frank Murtha still has some fight left in him, it would be a good time to start down some PR to keep the stock in people’s minds. ASTR is having a hard time push higher and it is looking more and more like it might get delisted. This stock had some promise, but there has been no moving in the PR departments for this stock also. Not only this, but with is a credit crunch with these stocks as interest rates push higher. If price on these pairs tank, I already have it that I am ok with losing the money.
SHIB: crypto is in a snowstorm and when things do go good for it, something else happens (such as the Silvergate incident). But if price can hold on and survive, when the bitcoin having happens, that might breath some life into crypto and Bitcoin might be able to hit 30,000, ETH 2,000, and SHIB 0.000015. There is still some more pain though, from now until the end of the second corner, as central banks are still hiking. Now, what the interesting part is, if a recession does happen and central banks do not drop rates and hold, will crypto still be able to push higher? Possibly. The Government could somehow still push out stimulus and if they do, could give crypto a push higher as people start putting that in crypto and NFTs again. But this will likely spur inflation again and at that point will the central banks increase rates further? Who knows, only time will tell.
The theme of the markets now is Rate Hikes and the fighting of inflation . Also recession thoughts are in the mix. Additionally this might lead to a divergence between the Central Banks and the Governments as one will want to stabilize price while the other wants to stimulate the economy. I think by the end of summer of this year, things will start unfolding, and we will find out if the concern is more on fighting inflation or saving the economy.
Trading does carry a lot of risk and it is imperative you conduct your own research and analysis. By not doing this you could lose a lot of money and sometimes more if the markets move against you. These are just my thoughts and I have my own way of trading that took me time to hone and work with my personality. Wish you all the best in your trading.