Gold has fallen below the 50-month MA (thick blue), 200-month MA (red), and is below all of the major monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages. It’s in a well-established downtrend channel after a major double top breakdown with a retest. The green line pointed to by the green arrow was a potential major uptrend line which was broken and retested. The next major trend line is the line pointed to by the purple arrow which is next to the 100-month MA (yellow). This is a logical support/target area.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from last week show that commercials (Producer/merchant), swap dealers, and managed money are net long by a significant margin and that “Other reportables” have taken the other side of trade. I’m not sure who all these “other reportables” are but I’m sure retail traders would fall in this category. Normally the big dogs are not all on the same side of the trade but when they are, it kind of makes coming to a conclusion about likely direction based on the COT report a lot easier.
Position:
Short 2 micros since this morning at 1641.
stops: 1645 and 1652
targets: 1625 and 1503
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from last week show that commercials (Producer/merchant), swap dealers, and managed money are net long by a significant margin and that “Other reportables” have taken the other side of trade. I’m not sure who all these “other reportables” are but I’m sure retail traders would fall in this category. Normally the big dogs are not all on the same side of the trade but when they are, it kind of makes coming to a conclusion about likely direction based on the COT report a lot easier.
Position:
Short 2 micros since this morning at 1641.
stops: 1645 and 1652
targets: 1625 and 1503
