LINK double top formation

Looks like LINK has made a double top formation here, so now the question is do we break the resistance or do we drop towards the 9/10 zone.

BTC is holding pretty decent past days, not great but also not bad. So for me both options are on the table. Just important to see, that if the resistance area breaks around 11.5/8, that we see a convincing break up with a relative fast and or small retest (yellow line).
So on the other side we have the red line breakout, meaning a break of the resistance, but it has trouble of following through.

This could have 2 reasons,

1) LINK is acting as if it's strong but its all a trap
2) Link is strong, but after the break of that resistance, Bitcoin is acting weak and starts top drop which will cause buyers to eventually throw in the towel and start selling as well.

Both have the same result so what does it matter? Well, it does matter. Because if it's number 2, which I personally think it will be (IF the red line would play out that is), that it means that as soon as BTC will start to stabilize again and moves up, that LINK will start to outperform again. If it would be version 1, than it means the whole rally is just a big trap and LINK might have set the high for the year already. So knowing the reason behind the 2 scenario's, helps you prepare for knowing what to do AFTER the drop.


Now back to the main picture, will red or yellow play out. Think the longer we hang against this resistance around 11.5/8, the bigger the chance it will break and THEN we need to see if scenario red or yellow plays out.

In case we don't break up from here, than those 2 yellow boxes are small support zones. But normally it's in the make or break are now.

If it breaks up, first target is around 12.8. Above that level i don't have real targets, but i do see a big resistance around 16.


And hello to everyone again :), think it has been almost 2 years again for my last analysis here on TradingView :).


David

Comment:

See i forgot to post this triangle option, where support is around 11.0ish.
If you remember from past analysis of mine, where i described that price can NOT move to the very end of the triangle, because then almost always price breaks down. So, looking at the time frame, LINK has to break up before the daily close (maybe 1/2 hours more), otherwise a break downwards becomes favorite (blue line). Volume profile is also not very good, but also not clearly bearish.

Third scenario is a sideways break of the triangle, so staying between 11/11.8 for a day or 2 more, then bullish breakout increases in strength again.

So need to wait and see, my best guess is, we dont see a real move until Monday morning.

Comment:

Was a sideways weekend for LINK and the rest of the market as well. So no real move yet, but now starting to look more bullish now. I deleted the other lines, cause the picture wasnt that clear anymore, but others were not in play anymore anyway.

So, looks like the sideways breakout version happened, so now it should break up, guessing today.