The Litecoin halving will occur on August 6, 2019. In past halvings, Bitcoin and Litecoin prices would drop significantly prior to their halving. The reason for that of course people rode the halving news up and got out because they wanted to preserve their profits. In other words, fear overcame their greed. The same thing will probably (I give it 80% probability) happen to Litecoin prior to August 6, 2019. That's not necessarily a bad thing. I mean when Walmart has your favorite 72" TV on sale for 50% off, are you going to get your friends and picket Walmart? Of course not. You're going to go there and load up because it's on sale. Same with Litecoin.
One very nice feature of this Litecoin recovery is its devotion to the Fibonacci retracement. I circled all of the instances where the Fib lines acted as support or resistance (or came very close). This may give us an idea of how far LTC will drop before August 6th. I personally don't think we will see a new high much above the existing $144 unless we get some breaking news out that Fidelity or Bakkt will be selling LTC.
BTW, I drew a dashed decending line on the 4hr chart because I think LTC is about to turn bearish. It is too soon to tell on the daily chart and I was playing with the chart to see if the price follows it down. You can disregard the dashed line if you like.
To guess how low LTC will go we will need to throw some darts on the chart. From past experience the drop prior to a halving averaged between 50% and 70% from the recent high.
If I were throwing darts, I'd pick a 32% drop or a 40% drop but no lower. If these were normal circumstances and Wall Street wasn't waiting in the wings, then the drop would be more substantial. Plus Litecoin has created a cult status with a large number of people who are HODLers and won't sell for anything. These are the same people who rode LTC all the way down from the high of $350 until it reached $25, and rode it up all the way up again. And within a year if LTC hits $350 again, they will have broken even. They wasted 2 to 3 years holding onto LTC because they believe it is the right coin. You can't reason with people who have that type of "devotion" to their coins. That's why I don't think we will see anywhere near the 70% drop as we have in the past.
That's it from me. If you like Litecoin, I expect it will be going on sale in a few weeks. (I could be wrong too)
This is not investment advice. As always, please do your own due diligence when buying or selling crypts (or choosing a new wife). :-)
One very nice feature of this Litecoin recovery is its devotion to the Fibonacci retracement. I circled all of the instances where the Fib lines acted as support or resistance (or came very close). This may give us an idea of how far LTC will drop before August 6th. I personally don't think we will see a new high much above the existing $144 unless we get some breaking news out that Fidelity or Bakkt will be selling LTC.
BTW, I drew a dashed decending line on the 4hr chart because I think LTC is about to turn bearish. It is too soon to tell on the daily chart and I was playing with the chart to see if the price follows it down. You can disregard the dashed line if you like.
To guess how low LTC will go we will need to throw some darts on the chart. From past experience the drop prior to a halving averaged between 50% and 70% from the recent high.
If I were throwing darts, I'd pick a 32% drop or a 40% drop but no lower. If these were normal circumstances and Wall Street wasn't waiting in the wings, then the drop would be more substantial. Plus Litecoin has created a cult status with a large number of people who are HODLers and won't sell for anything. These are the same people who rode LTC all the way down from the high of $350 until it reached $25, and rode it up all the way up again. And within a year if LTC hits $350 again, they will have broken even. They wasted 2 to 3 years holding onto LTC because they believe it is the right coin. You can't reason with people who have that type of "devotion" to their coins. That's why I don't think we will see anywhere near the 70% drop as we have in the past.
That's it from me. If you like Litecoin, I expect it will be going on sale in a few weeks. (I could be wrong too)
This is not investment advice. As always, please do your own due diligence when buying or selling crypts (or choosing a new wife). :-)