2024-05-01 - a daily price action after hour update - oil

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Big selling today and melted through 80. My thesis over the past weeks was a correction to around 77. We are at 79 and the odds are very high that we get there. Might see another bounce first though. Unsure and we have to wait for tomorrow.

current market cycle: most recent bull trend is over and we are correcting - probably trading range more than bear trend

key levels: trading range 77 - 85

bull case: 3 pushes down on many higher tf charts and bulls are reasonable if they buy 79 for a bounce. At least a retest of 80 is logical. 80.50 should be max if bears are strong and then I suspect market to move more sideways before we try another sell off to 77. Invalid below 78.6.

bear case: Bears outdid themselves today. I have drawn many dotted bear trend lines to visualize how many lower bear trend lines we broke below. If bears continue strongly below 78.6, this might be a bear trend rather a trading range and 77 might not hold for long either. But for now 77 is my main target. Sell-off today from 81 to 79.8 did not touch the 1m 20ema once.

short term: Sideways to up is preferred over another sell climax. 79 Should be good support before we try again for 77. If we start strong selling again, fine, but initiating new shorts here at 79 is very bad r:r. Invalid below 78.6 and we might crash down again.

medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged.

trade of the day: Same play since Monday, short around the 1h 20ema. Works like a charm. Sell off today was very climactic though.