202419 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - gold
gold futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line. Monday or Tuesday will give a clear direction for the next move. Measured move from the most recent sell-off is exactly the low of W2 around 2180.
current market cycle: Inclined to say trading range until clear break below 2290.
key levels: 2290 - 2350
bull case: Bulls keeping this around the daily 20ema and continue to make 2290/2300 support. As long as it holds, we could see another push to retest the highs above 2400. Their next target is a close above the ema at 2330 and above that is 2360 as next resistance. Invalid below 2290.
bear case: Price action last week could very well have been part of the W2 and W3 could start now but the more we go sideways the less influence the most recent sell-off has.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2347 and now we are at 2308. Good read of the market.
short term: Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower.
Chart update: Removed the two legged correction in favor of the bear thesis and added an alternative bullish correction upwards. Preferred path is the red one.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line. Monday or Tuesday will give a clear direction for the next move. Measured move from the most recent sell-off is exactly the low of W2 around 2180.
current market cycle: Inclined to say trading range until clear break below 2290.
key levels: 2290 - 2350
bull case: Bulls keeping this around the daily 20ema and continue to make 2290/2300 support. As long as it holds, we could see another push to retest the highs above 2400. Their next target is a close above the ema at 2330 and above that is 2360 as next resistance. Invalid below 2290.
bear case: Price action last week could very well have been part of the W2 and W3 could start now but the more we go sideways the less influence the most recent sell-off has.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2347 and now we are at 2308. Good read of the market.
short term: Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower.
Chart update: Removed the two legged correction in favor of the bear thesis and added an alternative bullish correction upwards. Preferred path is the red one.
