The neckline on the head and shoulders has been retested. The 160-hr harmonic cycle (previous idea) is still in play. The price target for the head and shoulders is a parallel line equidistant from the neckline to the top of the head. The timing is based on the harmonic cycle and will put the price at 3.624 by the end of next week. This is a theory.
Note: The head and shoulders has a double shoulder so a double retest of the neckline may also occur.
Note: The head and shoulders has a double shoulder so a double retest of the neckline may also occur.
Comment:
A double retest of the neckline did indeed occur which also served as a retest of and rejection by the downtrend line that started late October (not shown). It seems the current resistance is the 20wk average (not shown) which has been tested already a couple of times. If it doesn't hold, which it doesn't seem likely it will, price can go substantially lower by end of week, potentially hitting the target of 3.600 which now seems more generous of a target than it did when the idea was originally posted due to the 2nd test of the neckline. I'm currently short from 4.951 and will get out break even should price recover. It is at 4.832 as of this update.
Comment:
Slim chance of the target being hit at this point but I'm still bearish going into the last 12 hours or so of this cycle
Order cancelled:
This last cycle didn't have the dramatic crash at the end I was hoping for but it did mark an intraday bottom at noon which preceded a 2.5% rally at the beginning of the next cycle which I managed to catch. I now how a bullish slant going into next week due to the new cycle but will still be on the look out for a completion of the head and shoulders pattern. Basically, I have no strong bias in either direction and will be trading opportunities in either direction if they present themselves.