5/15/25 - vrockstar -
NICE
- setup reminds me a bit of
DT
into the close y day as well as other SaaS names. valuation remains reasonable for 15% growth, a little over 5x sales, low 20s PE, 3.5% fcf yield. seems to check the boxes there. i'd previously set a greedier target of lower $200's for entry, but this tape seems to want to basically buy all things. i will be swining long this name into the print tmr AM in small size. exit ~$240 or a bit above is the tgt.
NICE
- setup reminds me a bit of
DT
into the close y day as well as other SaaS names. valuation remains reasonable for 15% growth, a little over 5x sales, low 20s PE, 3.5% fcf yield. seems to check the boxes there. i'd previously set a greedier target of lower $200's for entry, but this tape seems to want to basically buy all things. i will be swining long this name into the print tmr AM in small size. exit ~$240 or a bit above is the tgt.
Comment:
good results, not a smasher - but taking up full year #s is good in this tape. cheap valuation, great growth. the fly in the ointment is the CEO announcing his departure - which always is a unknown unknown, but w/ the EPS catalyst passing "go" and this news, -6% seems a bit like an over reaction, just doubled the trading stake i have and will be looking to add more as well as do more work in coming Q to understand if i should swing this as a MT position beyond just a trading spot for now. let's see. gl to all.
Comment:
doubled again, this has become a 2% position; has morphed from a swing to an investment. hard to find good spots to take risk at reasonable valuations. this seems to be acting on flows/ gamma and the ceo announcement more than fundamentals. tough to know if there's another 10-15% to go - ultimately - but in this tape, for something that is probably a 2 or 3 to 1 (upside vs. downside) in the 6 to 12 month context, cloud, niche transformation moat (compliance, regs, orgs), i think it's now worth a look if you were on the sidelines w/ more obvious entry sub $200.