I bought some $92.5 call options with Sept 20 expiration. The premium is fairly low on these contracts, so the pay out is really high. That potential high payout is basically the only reason I am taking a shot here. Like SPRC, anything not a high conviction play is smaller, and insignificant in comparison to the BTC, IREN, and Cannabis plays.
On the charts, it appears it’s possible this is a triple bottom. The 2nd bottom didn’t form much of a base and lost steam early on the leg up, before we have now bottomed here on their third leg down. Nike has now dropped 48% since the top in Nov 21 and is lagging the moves here. Despite this drop, they have beaten earnings in 14 of their last 15 quarters. The last 3 quarters were by 24%, 22%, and then 30% in their latest update for the period through February. Earnings aren’t until Jun 27th and are for the period through May. The volume has been drying up, and if this is to go my way, I think it bounces soon. It’s been nearly a month, since we bottomed out and this level held resistance for the 3rd time. I feel like this is a pretty good entry level here near the bottom, and if things break down unexpectedly, i can get out.
I typically only date young stocks, so this trade is outside of what i’m usually look for. What got me into this trade was watching a Chris Camilla’s YouTube video and then reading his book. After studying his investing philosophy, I started thinking about the things in my life. I then thought about how Caitlin Clark has been going viral recently and thought if there was any way of potential capitalizing.
As everyone knows, Caitlin has now re-signed with Nike with the big blockbuster deal. With everyone knowing about it, wouldn’t this news be priced in already? Not necessarily. These institutions like to accumulate their positions over several months, but we should find out shortly. I’m not sure her sales move the needle much with only 44% of Nike’s revenue coming from the US and this is primarily a women’s product. However, with the internet, Caitlin is now bigger than just the US. I have had normal every day people from Asia messaging me about her, having watched her clips on social media.
Her Iowa nike shirts have been selling like crazy through March Madness and her Indiana Fever jerseys sold out within a hour after being offered. "Fans have gone crazy for Clark even before her epic 2024 NCAA March Madness championship run, snapping up her official record breaking Nike T-shirt just as fast as they can be made. Now that Fanatics has released the official Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever jersey, most sizes of the first-run batch have already sold out."
All of these jersey, hoodies, t-shirts on fanatics are nike and the Indiana Fever jerseys are nike. Women's NCAA numbers skyrocketed and the Women’s Championship game had more viewership than the mens’ for the first time in history. I look for Caitlin’s start to the WNBA season on May 14th to lead to increase viewership as well. I saw someone say that she is the Taylor Swift of women’s sports. And that seems to be true right now. She has captured the attention of my entire family and even friends of the family. Nearly every young girl who watches sports is going to have a Nike jersey of hers. And when she releases her new shoes? They are probably going buy those too. Why not launch some casual ones, slipper, etc, and not just basketball shoes? They are going the Jordan model and use this with her.
It’s possible Caitlin will usher in a whole new generation of women basketball players and they will be wearing Nike. In general, I am bullish on women’s basketball and Caitlin could be instrumental in its growth. On the heels of the Women’s Tournament, a lot of people are going to be drawn to the WNBA to start this season, and now because of this, they will now get to watch not only her, but a young and very talented Vegas team, a loaded NY team, and some young and upcoming stars for other teams. Hopefully a few of the new viewers will stick around.
So I look for Nike to have a hot start here with WNBA and hopefully Caitlin will play well, so she can make it to the Olympics and then Nike can really showcase her. I’m skeptical of her defense, lazy passing, and shot quality, plus she is going to get everyone’s best defender every night and you know they will want to lock her rich-famous-hasn’t-done-shit-ass up. It’s definitely going to be tough on her as a rookie, but a guy can hope, and if not it sounds like she will play in the 3 on 3.
So there is the Caitlin move, but then there’s the Olympics too. Nike is going all out making this Olympics It’s largest media spend:
"This Olympics will be our biggest ... it will be our largest media spend," Heidi O'Neill, president of consumer, product and brand at Nike said in an interview. "This will be the most investment and the biggest moment for Nike in years," she added, without putting a figure on the amount of spending planned.
In Nike's latest quarter, total marketing expense was $1 billion, up 10% on the same period last year. Asked whether spending will continue to ramp up, O'Neill said marketing was "the number one priority investment" for the company. Nike in general is focusing on "fewer, bigger" marketing campaigns, she added. The $139 billion company hired a new chief marketing officer at the end of last year as it seeks to bolster its brand in an increasingly competitive sportswear market.
If Nike and Caitlin can nail these next few months, then maybe I can too.
Just Do It. Just Do it. Just Fucking Do it.
-bettingbillions
On the charts, it appears it’s possible this is a triple bottom. The 2nd bottom didn’t form much of a base and lost steam early on the leg up, before we have now bottomed here on their third leg down. Nike has now dropped 48% since the top in Nov 21 and is lagging the moves here. Despite this drop, they have beaten earnings in 14 of their last 15 quarters. The last 3 quarters were by 24%, 22%, and then 30% in their latest update for the period through February. Earnings aren’t until Jun 27th and are for the period through May. The volume has been drying up, and if this is to go my way, I think it bounces soon. It’s been nearly a month, since we bottomed out and this level held resistance for the 3rd time. I feel like this is a pretty good entry level here near the bottom, and if things break down unexpectedly, i can get out.
I typically only date young stocks, so this trade is outside of what i’m usually look for. What got me into this trade was watching a Chris Camilla’s YouTube video and then reading his book. After studying his investing philosophy, I started thinking about the things in my life. I then thought about how Caitlin Clark has been going viral recently and thought if there was any way of potential capitalizing.
As everyone knows, Caitlin has now re-signed with Nike with the big blockbuster deal. With everyone knowing about it, wouldn’t this news be priced in already? Not necessarily. These institutions like to accumulate their positions over several months, but we should find out shortly. I’m not sure her sales move the needle much with only 44% of Nike’s revenue coming from the US and this is primarily a women’s product. However, with the internet, Caitlin is now bigger than just the US. I have had normal every day people from Asia messaging me about her, having watched her clips on social media.
Her Iowa nike shirts have been selling like crazy through March Madness and her Indiana Fever jerseys sold out within a hour after being offered. "Fans have gone crazy for Clark even before her epic 2024 NCAA March Madness championship run, snapping up her official record breaking Nike T-shirt just as fast as they can be made. Now that Fanatics has released the official Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever jersey, most sizes of the first-run batch have already sold out."
All of these jersey, hoodies, t-shirts on fanatics are nike and the Indiana Fever jerseys are nike. Women's NCAA numbers skyrocketed and the Women’s Championship game had more viewership than the mens’ for the first time in history. I look for Caitlin’s start to the WNBA season on May 14th to lead to increase viewership as well. I saw someone say that she is the Taylor Swift of women’s sports. And that seems to be true right now. She has captured the attention of my entire family and even friends of the family. Nearly every young girl who watches sports is going to have a Nike jersey of hers. And when she releases her new shoes? They are probably going buy those too. Why not launch some casual ones, slipper, etc, and not just basketball shoes? They are going the Jordan model and use this with her.
It’s possible Caitlin will usher in a whole new generation of women basketball players and they will be wearing Nike. In general, I am bullish on women’s basketball and Caitlin could be instrumental in its growth. On the heels of the Women’s Tournament, a lot of people are going to be drawn to the WNBA to start this season, and now because of this, they will now get to watch not only her, but a young and very talented Vegas team, a loaded NY team, and some young and upcoming stars for other teams. Hopefully a few of the new viewers will stick around.
So I look for Nike to have a hot start here with WNBA and hopefully Caitlin will play well, so she can make it to the Olympics and then Nike can really showcase her. I’m skeptical of her defense, lazy passing, and shot quality, plus she is going to get everyone’s best defender every night and you know they will want to lock her rich-famous-hasn’t-done-shit-ass up. It’s definitely going to be tough on her as a rookie, but a guy can hope, and if not it sounds like she will play in the 3 on 3.
So there is the Caitlin move, but then there’s the Olympics too. Nike is going all out making this Olympics It’s largest media spend:
"This Olympics will be our biggest ... it will be our largest media spend," Heidi O'Neill, president of consumer, product and brand at Nike said in an interview. "This will be the most investment and the biggest moment for Nike in years," she added, without putting a figure on the amount of spending planned.
In Nike's latest quarter, total marketing expense was $1 billion, up 10% on the same period last year. Asked whether spending will continue to ramp up, O'Neill said marketing was "the number one priority investment" for the company. Nike in general is focusing on "fewer, bigger" marketing campaigns, she added. The $139 billion company hired a new chief marketing officer at the end of last year as it seeks to bolster its brand in an increasingly competitive sportswear market.
If Nike and Caitlin can nail these next few months, then maybe I can too.
Just Do It. Just Do it. Just Fucking Do it.
-bettingbillions