Why I think the bear market is over
Markets are making higher highs and higher lows. 50 Day Moving Average crossed over the 200 Day Moving Average.
I've been long since the start of this year but I think now the picture looks a bit cleaner: the FED will have to pause.
The issue is that the U.S. Government is going bankrupt so what they will probably be doing is manipulate inflation data (thehill.com/finance/3856258-cpi-calculation-to-be-revised-for-january-price-data/)
to make it seem like inflation has been defeated, and Powell will be a hero. CPI and labour statistics are laggard and inaccurate, the rate hikes are having effect and bringing it down and at the same time they are changing the calculations to make it look better. I would expect a FED pause very soon. Probably after the next meeting. Markets are already sniffing it out though. DXY is down since October: if you look closely its descent coincides with Janet Yellet (secretary of the Treasury) announcing that they are taking steps to enhance the treasury market because of illiquidity concerns. It's all coming together.
I've been long since the start of this year but I think now the picture looks a bit cleaner: the FED will have to pause.
The issue is that the U.S. Government is going bankrupt so what they will probably be doing is manipulate inflation data (thehill.com/finance/3856258-cpi-calculation-to-be-revised-for-january-price-data/)
to make it seem like inflation has been defeated, and Powell will be a hero. CPI and labour statistics are laggard and inaccurate, the rate hikes are having effect and bringing it down and at the same time they are changing the calculations to make it look better. I would expect a FED pause very soon. Probably after the next meeting. Markets are already sniffing it out though. DXY is down since October: if you look closely its descent coincides with Janet Yellet (secretary of the Treasury) announcing that they are taking steps to enhance the treasury market because of illiquidity concerns. It's all coming together.
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