There are several factors in the market that raise concerns. Each of which could have a huge negative impact on the economy and the stock market. Lets take a look at it to clear our vision. At least that is what I am doing.
What factors could that be.
What factors could that be.
- Inflation
- Wage Inflation
- Money Supply
- Money circulation
- Housing bubble
- China Regulations
- China Currency Manipulation
- China Delta Variance of Covid/The Warren Buffet indicator
In this episode I only will throw my thoughts in for a few things
The other items will be explained at a later time. I have a lot of other things to do. Trading is 90% research and only of 10% mouse clicking.
Inflation.
CPI, the consumer price index, and the PPI, the producer price index.
Certain stocks do better than other in an inflationary environment. If inflation hits too high consumer spending decreases and hence the demand shrinks and hence the economy starts to stagnate.
We can see that the inflation rate is slowing (red), and the y/y rate (blue) is flattening. But we will see next month. This is something to watch out for. Feds might start tapering earlier than next year.
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The Producer Price Index is at high a level and sitting there. This will only decrease when transportation, sea ports, can keep up with demand and if raw material and commodity costs will decrease. But this can take a while and I expect the PPI staying at this level for a while and hence costs will be past on to the consumer. Hence the Consumer Price Index will follow.
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Wage Inflation. We should also take a quick look at the Wages and what they say.We can see that wages increased dramatically since May 2021 There is a shortage of labor. Labor is a commodity as everything else and the price follows supply and demand. But do not kid yourself. A company has to make profit and the labor is part of Cost of Goods sold, COGS. The company MUST increase prices to balance the wages increases. Thus, you wont make anymore money when you have to pay more at the till for what you buy!!! Wages increases mostly never benefit anyone, not the worker and not the company. The company become less competitive and the Worker pays more afterwards. The ONLY method to increase wages is by cutting taxes because taxes are NOT part of COGS and has no negative impact on companies. Just the opposite. With more money in the pocket the consumer starts more spending and that benefits the companies and they will produce more and hire more people. You see? Think about it. Your wage increase is not worth a dime with inflation. And wages increases drive inflation up! Thats why we advocate for smaller government, less regulations and less government spending.
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Money Supply,
M1, is the amount of Cash circulating the system. It includes the "Free Money" printed by the FEDs given out to people due to Covid. "Stimulus check". The day-to-day money like cash, coins and checking deposits. We can see that since Covid the money made a huge jump and supply still is increasing. There is an enormous amount of cash in the system but does it circulate?
Also keep in mind that when people spend money and do not produce the demand increases but the supply decreases. Add to it the sea ports, transportation bottlenecks and the open jobs, and you know why inflation is increasing dramatically.
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M1V is the velocity of Money.
This is the speed of money in the circulation of the system. The day-to-day money like cash and coins. How many times a Dollar changes hand in a certain time period. A higher circulation rate or money flow indicates a greater economic activity, money is changing hands quicker. A slower rate of velocity indicates a sluggish or declining economy. Interesting to observe is that with Covid the money circulation fell out of the sky. Yes everybody was laid off. But when you take a closer look the change q/q is still negative, which means the circulation of money in the economy is still slowing down even though at a slower rate! This means that with an increase in money supply at hand of people, we will see a decline in spending!! Not good for the economy. Give me the Retail Numbers.
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M2 Money Stock
includes M1 plus savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds. This is one way the FEDs trying to keep the cocaine going. They buy MBA (Mortgage Backed Securities) and Bonds from banks in order to create more demand in order to keep bond prices up and the yields down. The 20 year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT from Barclays, i.e. With this the FEDs keep the money in the stock market. The bond prices are going up when the FEDs keep on buying. But with buying Bonds the yield (interests) are going down since you pay more for the fixed interest rate, which means the percentage of return per bond is shrinking because the yield stays the same but the price for the asset rises. It is an inverted relationship to the TBT.
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In the M2SL supply we can see that with Covid there was an money injection. After the Covid the money injection accelerated and is increasing fast, more inflation. And we can assume that lot of this money is with the bank. You can walk into any bank and get a personal loan, because money is a liability for the bank, loans generating profits. We can further assume with all the said before that even the banks do not know in what tangible projects to invest. Where is the infrastructure bill going? There is nothing so far. It is all warm air from the Biden administration.
Further reading at investopedia dot com
Conclusion
Inflation is on the rise and will stay. Wages wont go back to before pandemic levels. Costumers also will get use to paying more for some items, like gasoline, energy and transportation, vacation.
The Producer inflation for raw material and transportation is also going up and will stay high for a long time.
Inflation cannot grow for ever and at such pace. The Feds have to start tapering soon. Then they will firstly reduc3e buying Bonds and MBA, which will drive the yield up. This also will cool the housing bubble a little since the banks are now required to carry the risks they could push to the FEDs by selling them MBAs. Mortgages will be harder to acquire.
When the Feds starting to taper, they will reduce the flow of money, which is not yet increasing anyway, as we can see, they will battle inflation. What is your wage increase of 5.5% this year worth when the inflation hits 6%? Nada. You lose money. At the point of tapering the institutions will start moving money out of the stock market due to risks! And they will put it into bond and or Gold. If there is a crises developing that will include China and the Euro Zone they will also start buying US bonds the USD will rise.
This conclusion is preliminary. The housing bubble and other indicator will follow.
Please be advised, I am not a financial adviser. I am not recommending any trades. I am just a crazy guy with a wild brain.
If you want to see the picture to the story, you have to go to hedgingstocks.blogspot dot com
